2505 Jackson Ave #207 · Escalon, CA 95320

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured · 238 Days on market

Built 1973 Average condition $44/sqft · 32% below area Est $95k · 32% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Escalon's sought after 55+ community, Almond Grove! This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is located on a generous corner lot with no backyard neighbors. The open floor plan features a large family room with separate dining room. The kitchen has a large island for additional seating. This home has new carpet throughout. The park amenitites include a dog park, swimming pool, hall, and laundry room. Come see everything this home has to offer!

Key facts

• Dog park
• Laundry room
• Swimming pool

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NO BACKYARD NEIGHBORS
• LARGE ISLAND
• DOG PARK
• SWIMMING POOL
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $854 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 3.0% in Escalon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#847 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Escalon Unified (town): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #258 of 517 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.33%
• DSCR: 3.51
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,089
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -31.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2505 Jackson Ave #145	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	3mo	$25,000	$17	90
2505 Jackson Ave #149	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (+3%)	8mo	$182,000	$118	83
2505 Jackson Ave #146	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	16mo	$150,000	$104	80
2505 Jackson Ave #106	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,303 (-12%)	7mo	$115,000	$88	72
2505 - 9935 Jackson Ave #126	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-6%)	20mo	$150,000	$107	68
2505 Jackson Ave #171	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,361 (-8%)	23mo	$125,000	$92	66
2505 Jackson Ave #175	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,272 (-14%)	15mo	$96,000	$75	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $43,903
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $108,394
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95320

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $854

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $899	-5% $877	+0% $854	+5% $832	+10% $809
Rent	-10% $724	-5% $789	+0% $854	+5% $919	+10% $985
Rate	-1.0pp $887	-0.5pp $871	base $854	+0.5pp $837	+1.0pp $820

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2174 Coley Ave Apt 32 Escalon, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,650	$1.74	14d	1	0.21mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 224 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 220 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 219 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $9,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,352
• After-tax cash flow: $7,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home in Escalon's Almond Grove community is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom vanity — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality
• Resale replace bathroom vanity and fixtures — modernizes the bathroom and improves functionality
• Resale replace exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and improves home's appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom vanity · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · moderate wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality ↑
• Resale replace bathroom vanity and fixtures — modernizes the bathroom and improves functionality ↑
• Resale replace exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and improves home's appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escalon Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612840
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,800
• Composite: 31.95/100
• National rank: #5844
• State rank: #258 of 517 in CA

Livability — Escalon

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #847
• US rank: #23351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Escalon, CA
• Population (ZIP): 13,511

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Russian 13% Iranian 5% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.16%
• Current HPI: 289.011
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B