Gray Plan · Conroe, TX 77304

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,433 sqft · SingleFamily · 538 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Gray floor plan is a well-designed one-story home that offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage. This layout emphasizes an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas for effortless entertaining. The primary suite is positioned for privacy and includes a well-equipped ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. With modern features and a smart, functional layout, the Gray floor plan is perfect for comfortable everyday living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 537 days

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $300,870.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-474 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Giesinger El (math 61% / reading 52%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 741 students, 48% FRL); Peet J H (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,289 students, 58% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 34% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 756 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 538 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,176 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 538 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.75%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,870
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -15.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12199 Ridge Top Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,443 (+1%)	1mo	$249,990	$173	86
12188 Ridge Top Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+0%)	6mo	$259,990	$181	84
12163 Ridge Top Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-2%)	2mo	$244,990	$175	83
12215 Ridge Top Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+1%)	4mo	$274,900	$190	83
12340 Ridge Top Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+1%)	6mo	$279,990	$194	83
2809 Bluebonnet Ridge Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+3%)	5mo	$273,500	$186	82
12211 Ridge Top Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+7%)	1mo	$259,990	$170	76
12171 Ridge Top Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+7%)	6mo	$274,990	$179	72
12175 Ridge Top Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,575 (+10%)	2mo	$269,990	$171	68
1977 La Salle Park Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,366 (-5%)	0mo	$250,000	$183	67
12339 Ridge Top Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,596 (+11%)	3mo	$284,900	$179	61
6119 White Spruce Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+11%)	6mo	$318,900	$200	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-84,877
• Equity at exit: $44,861

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-135,682
• Equity at exit: $26,014

Cash invested: $84,244 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77304

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 756
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,578
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$376 /mo · $4,513/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,632

Max offer price $232,259

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-266	-5% $-370	+0% $-474	+5% $-578	+10% $-682
Rent	-10% $-635	-5% $-554	+0% $-474	+5% $-394	+10% $-314
Rate	-1.0pp $-323	-0.5pp $-398	base $-474	+0.5pp $-552	+1.0pp $-631

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,218
• Closing costs: $9,026
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7711 Longmire Rd Conroe, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1451	$2,750	$1.90	3d	67	1.08mi
4955 W Davis St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,650	$1.26	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 538 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 535 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 534 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 533 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 532 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 530 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,990 Active 526 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 525 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,990 Active 524 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 521 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 520 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 519 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,990 Active 518 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,990 Active 517 DOM
15. 2025-08-10
    price $254,990 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    The Gray floor plan is a well-designed one-story home that offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage. This layout emphasizes an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas for effortless entertaining. The primary suite is positioned for privacy and includes a well-equipped ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. With modern features and a smart, functional layout, the Gray floor plan is perfect for comfortable everyday living.

16. 2025-06-28
    price $268,990 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    The Gray floor plan is a well-designed one-story home that offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage. This layout emphasizes an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas for effortless entertaining. The primary suite is positioned for privacy and includes a well-equipped ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. With modern features and a smart, functional layout, the Gray floor plan is perfect for comfortable everyday living.

17. 2025-04-22
    price $263,990 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    The Gray floor plan is a well-designed one-story home that offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage. This layout emphasizes an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas for effortless entertaining. The primary suite is positioned for privacy and includes a well-equipped ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. With modern features and a smart, functional layout, the Gray floor plan is perfect for comfortable everyday living.

18. 2025-03-08
    price $261,990 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    The Gray floor plan is a well-designed one-story home that offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage. This layout emphasizes an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas for effortless entertaining. The primary suite is positioned for privacy and includes a well-equipped ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. With modern features and a smart, functional layout, the Gray floor plan is perfect for comfortable everyday living.

19. 2025-02-13
    price $260,990 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    The Gray floor plan is a well-designed one-story home that offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage. This layout emphasizes an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas for effortless entertaining. The primary suite is positioned for privacy and includes a well-equipped ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. With modern features and a smart, functional layout, the Gray floor plan is perfect for comfortable everyday living.

20. 2025-02-07
    price $257,990 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    The Gray floor plan is a well-designed one-story home that offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage. This layout emphasizes an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas for effortless entertaining. The primary suite is positioned for privacy and includes a well-equipped ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. With modern features and a smart, functional layout, the Gray floor plan is perfect for comfortable everyday living.

21. 2024-12-31
    listed $255,990 Active 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    The Gray floor plan is a well-designed one-story home that offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage. This layout emphasizes an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas for effortless entertaining. The primary suite is positioned for privacy and includes a well-equipped ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. With modern features and a smart, functional layout, the Gray floor plan is perfect for comfortable everyday living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,853
• − Property taxes: −$4,513
• − Insurance: −$1,504
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − Depreciation: −$8,753
• Taxable loss: −$11,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,225
• Household income: $80,425
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2233.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.02%
• Current HPI: 209.516
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-10 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $268,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $263,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $261,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $260,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $257,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-31 Listed $255,990 Zillow