10531 Cobbler Pl · Waldorf, MD 20695

$359,990

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,837 sqft · Townhouse · 84 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 1,786 sqft lot Garage $196/sqft · 10% below area Est $400k · 10% under $84/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This three-story home features a first-floor flex space ready to be transformed off the entrance. Upstairs is an open concept living room/dining room with a kitchen and breakfast room, along with an optional deck. The top floor features the owner's suite with vaulted ceilings and an extra bedroom.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Dual vanity
• Center island

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTER ISLAND
• BREAKFAST AREA
• SPA INSPIRED EN SUITE BATH
• DUAL VANITY
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $360k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-895/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $316k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Waldorf — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Gustavus Brown Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #699 of 860 statewide, top 84%, 413 students, 73% FRL); Milton M. Somers Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #97 of 225 statewide, top 46%, 666 students, 39% FRL); St. Charles High School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #148 of 222 statewide, top 67%, 1,569 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 28% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 108d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $316,107 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,940
• List price: $359,990
• Delta: -9.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10536 Cobbler Pl	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,839 (+0%)	1mo	$349,990	$190	96
5524 Aberdeen Pl	0.11mi	2/3.0	1,862 (+1%)	2mo	$349,990	$188	91
5513 Aberdeen Pl	0.12mi	2/3.0	1,862 (+1%)	1mo	$349,990	$188	91
5537 Marksburg Pl	0.10mi	2/3.5	1,862 (+1%)	1mo	$379,490	$204	90
5525 Aberdeen Pl	0.13mi	2/3.0	1,871 (+2%)	1mo	$349,990	$187	90
5557 Marksburg Pl Pl	0.13mi	2/3.5	1,829 (-0%)	2mo	$380,490	$208	90
5568 Marksburg Pl	0.17mi	2/3.5	1,862 (+1%)	2mo	$381,990	$205	86
5507 Aberdeen Pl	0.11mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,880 (+2%)	2mo	$402,890	$214	84
5613 Ludlow Pl	0.15mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,871 (+2%)	1mo	$375,990	$201	82
5625 Ludlow Pl	0.17mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,871 (+2%)	1mo	$397,990	$213	81
11175 Conway Pl	0.54mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,824 (-1%)	1mo	$400,000	$219	66
5323 Rockingham Pl	0.66mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,912 (+4%)	1mo	$379,000	$198	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-62,984
• Equity at exit: $53,676

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-60,557
• Equity at exit: $31,125

Cash invested: $100,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 68 active · 52 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.7 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,990 ($209/sqft)
• Median days on market: 48 d
• This list price: 1% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 20695

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,161 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,400/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$84
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,255

Max offer price $349,200

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $50	+0% $-75	+5% $-199	+10% $-323
Rent	-10% $-324	-5% $-199	+0% $-75	+5% $50	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $17	base $-75	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,998
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	108d	1	0.13mi
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	94d	1	0.13mi
5625 Ludlow Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	1871	$3,500	$1.87	4d	1	0.14mi
5616 Ludlow Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	1871	$2,985	$1.60	23d	1	0.15mi
10939 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,500	$1.60	120d	1	0.16mi
10933 Drummond Pl Unit 10933 White Plains, MD	3.0	3.0	2300	$3,500	$1.52	100d	1	0.16mi
10893 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,250	$1.48	117d	1	0.22mi
5692 Glencoe Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1842	$3,460	$1.88	0d	1	0.35mi
11180 Conway Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1765	$3,392	$1.92	4d	12	0.53mi
4152 Skipton Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2529	$3,300	$1.30	79d	1	0.60mi
4165 Brodie Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2544	$3,000	$1.18	113d	1	0.61mi
11177 Southport Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1718	$2,950	$1.72	50d	1	0.73mi
5457 Spotswood Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2180	$3,200	$1.47	69d	1	0.81mi
11687 Emily Dickinson Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2496	$3,500	$1.40	59d	1	0.95mi
5754 Frederick Douglas Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2220	$3,500	$1.58	139d	1	1.17mi
11703 Palm Desert Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,545	$1.43	10d	1	1.38mi
11696 Palm Desert Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,900	$1.69	113d	1	1.40mi
5525 Peanuts Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	4.0	2160	$3,400	$1.57	139d	1	1.41mi
5427 Doubleday Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	2160	$2,989	$1.38	10d	1	1.42mi
5065 Ottawa Park Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	2192	$2,800	$1.28	108d	1	1.44mi
11761 Nationals Ln Unit 11761 Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2160	$3,200	$1.48	108d	1	1.44mi
11761 Nationals Ln Unit 11761 Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2160	$3,200	$1.48	120d	1	1.44mi
11789 Sunset Ridge Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,950	$1.60	93d	1	1.47mi
11777 Sunningdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1944	$2,800	$1.44	139d	1	1.47mi
11748 Sunningdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1860	$2,750	$1.48	120d	1	1.47mi
5066 Oyster Reef Pl Waldorf, MD	2.0	2.5	1380	$2,695	$1.95	108d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownershipProperty listed in excellent condition
• HOA & community: HOA fee $84 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic septicElectric service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouseBuilt by Lennar HomesConstruction not completed (per listing)
• Construction: Vinyl sidingBlock foundationEstimated year built
• Exterior features: Community poolOther structures above and below grade

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (all upper levels)2 half bathrooms total (one on main level, one on first lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with electric backupCentral A/C (electric)Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basementEstimated living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-03
   days on market $359,990 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-08-31
   days on market $359,990 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-08-29
   days on market $359,990 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-08-28
   days on market $359,990 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-08-27
   days on market $359,990 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-08-26
   days on market $359,990 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-08-25
   days on market $359,990 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-08-24
   days on market $359,990 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-08-23
   days on market $359,990 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-08-22
    days on market $359,990 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-08-21
    days on market $359,990 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-08-20
    days on market $359,990 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-08-19
    days on market $359,990 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-08-18
    days on market $359,990 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-08-17
    days on market $359,990 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-08-16
    days on market $359,990 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-08-15
    days on market $359,990 Active 65 DOM
18. 2026-08-14
    days on market $359,990 Active 64 DOM
19. 2026-08-13
    days on market $359,990 Active 63 DOM
20. 2026-08-12
    days on market $359,990 Active 62 DOM
21. 2026-08-11
    days on market $359,990 Active 61 DOM
22. 2026-08-10
    days on market $359,990 Active 60 DOM
23. 2026-08-09
    days on market $359,990 Active 59 DOM
24. 2026-08-08
    days on market $359,990 Active 58 DOM
25. 2026-08-06
    days on market $359,990 Active 56 DOM
26. 2026-08-05
    days on market $359,990 Active 55 DOM
27. 2026-08-04
    days on market $359,990 Active 54 DOM
28. 2026-08-03
    days on market $359,990 Active 53 DOM
29. 2026-07-31
    pricedays on market $359,990 Active 50 DOM
30. 2026-07-30
    days on market $377,390 Active 48 DOM
31. 2026-07-28
    days on market $377,390 Active 47 DOM
32. 2026-07-26
    days on market $377,390 Active 45 DOM
33. 2026-07-24
    days on market $377,390 Active 43 DOM
34. 2026-07-23
    days on market $377,390 Active 42 DOM
35. 2026-07-22
    days on market $377,390 Active 41 DOM
36. 2026-07-21
    days on market $377,390 Active 40 DOM
37. 2026-07-20
    days on market $377,390 Active 39 DOM
38. 2026-07-18
    days on market $377,390 Active 37 DOM
39. 2026-07-18
    days on market $377,390 Active 36 DOM
40. 2026-07-16
    days on market $377,390 Active 35 DOM
41. 2026-07-15
    days on market $377,390 Active 34 DOM
42. 2026-07-14
    days on market $377,390 Active 33 DOM
43. 2026-07-13
    days on market $377,390 Active 32 DOM
44. 2026-07-13
    days on market $377,390 Active 31 DOM
45. 2026-07-11
    days on market $377,390 Active 30 DOM
46. 2026-07-10
    days on market $377,390 Active 29 DOM
47. 2026-07-09
    days on market $377,390 Active 28 DOM
48. 2026-07-07
    days on market $377,390 Active 26 DOM
49. 2026-07-06
    days on market $377,390 Active 25 DOM
50. 2026-07-06
    days on market $377,390 Active 24 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,165
• − Property taxes: −$5,400
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,035
• − Management: −$3,035
• − HOA: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$10,472
• Taxable loss: −$6,982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,676
• After-tax cash flow: $781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This three-story townhouse is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and landscaping the front yard to enhance curb appeal and rental value, as well as upgrading the kitchen appliances and adding a smart home system to modernize the home and add value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Arthur Middleton Elementary School F MD #681/860 Nat'l #39,883/41,679 Middle Milton M. Somers Middle School F MD #97/225 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High St. Charles High School F MD #148/222 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Waldorf

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waldorf, MD
• County: Charles County · 176,616 people
• City population: 103,527
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 16,407
• Household income: $141,959
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 61% White 23% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
• Current HPI: 226.972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownershipProperty listed in excellent condition
• HOA & community: HOA fee $84 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic septicElectric service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouseBuilt by Lennar HomesConstruction not completed (per listing)
• Construction: Vinyl sidingBlock foundationEstimated year built
• Exterior features: Community poolOther structures above and below grade

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (all upper levels)2 half bathrooms total (one on main level, one on first lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with electric backupCentral A/C (electric)Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basementEstimated living area

Price history

-83.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $377,390 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $377,390 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $2,227,297 Public Records