4051 Oconner Rd · Mount Morris, MI 48504

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1954 4,356 sqft lot Est $50k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this affordable and well-maintained 2-bedroom ranch in Mt. Morris Township! This cozy home offers 840 square feet of comfortable living space with a functional floor plan, spacious living room, and convenient single-level living. Recent updates include a brand-new furnace and newer water heater, providing added peace of mind for the next owner. The home features public water and sewer, natural gas heat, and a detached garage for additional storage, parking, or workshop space. Situated on a manageable lot in the Westwood Heights School District, this property is perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking to add to their portfolio. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major roadways for an easy commute. Don't miss this opportunity to own an affordable home with great potential. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Manageable lot
• Natural gas heat
• Detached garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• PUBLIC WATER
• NATURAL GAS HEAT
• MANAGEABLE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($840 rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 5.5% in Mount Morris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#357 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Westwood Heights Schools (suburban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #704 of 760 in MI (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.37%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,560
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3488 W Gracelawn Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0	816 (-3%)	14mo	$72,000	$88	71
3302 Windland Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	809 (-4%)	3mo	$84,900	$105	71
3346 W Ridgeway Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0	900 (+7%)	14mo	$53,100	$59	66
3363 Windland Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+9%)	13mo	$40,000	$44	57
4168 Doran St	0.57mi	2/1.0	790 (-6%)	12mo	$30,000	$38	54
3163 W Gracelawn Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+3%)	18mo	$69,000	$80	46
3089 W Mott Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	920 (+10%)	14mo	$32,000	$35	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $11,726
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $34,826
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48504

• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $840 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $462

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3424 W Mott Ave Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	682	$725	$1.06	44d	1	0.17mi
124 Cherry Hl Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$953	$0.99	21d	1	0.88mi
98 Elm Tree Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$953	$0.99	44d	1	0.94mi
3360 N Linden Rd Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	893	$816	$0.91	13d	2	1.10mi
3376 Preston Pl Unit PRE3376 Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	44d	1	1.22mi
2462 Gena Ann Ln Unit GEN2462 Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	44d	1	1.23mi
5905 Griggs Dr Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	940	$1,000	$1.06	13d	1	1.26mi
2419 Gena Ann Ln Unit GEN2419 Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	44d	1	1.32mi
2410 Gena Ann Ln Unit GEN2410 Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	44d	1	1.35mi
2410 Gena Ann Ln Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	44d	1	1.35mi
2332 Fredonia Ave Unit FRE2332 Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $45,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$806
• − Management: −$806
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,080
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$739
• After-tax cash flow: $2,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westwood Heights Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,020
• Composite: 12.82/100
• National rank: #14544
• State rank: #704 of 760 in MI

Livability — Mount Morris

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #9095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 19,519
• Population (ZIP): 23,873

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 24% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.67%
• Current HPI: 94.3111
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-13 Listed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,328 · +29.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.