5327 Knotty Oaks Trl · Houston, TX 77045

$165,480

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,181 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1960 8,729 sqft lot $76/sqft · 30% below area Est $238k · 30% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Traditional 1-story home situated on a generous lot in an established neighborhood. This property offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a functional floor plan ready for customization! Interior features include a spacious living area, primary suite, and a kitchen with adjacent dining space. The house includes a porte-cochere for covered parking and additional driveway space. The backyard offers room for outdoor entertaining or future improvements, including a pool. Property is being sold AS-IS and presents an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. With solid bones and strong potential, this home is ideal for a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or owner-occupant renovation project.

Key facts

• Strong potential
• Solid bones
• Generous lot

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• PORTE-COCHERE
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• SOLID BONES
• STRONG POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,586 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.08%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,895
• List price: $165,480
• Delta: -30.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13606 Sunrose Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,920 (-12%)	4mo	$237,000	$123	67
5819 Tidewater Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (+4%)	9mo	$261,000	$115	56
13839 Aldaco Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,270 (+4%)	6mo	$305,000	$134	55
12930 Chrysanthemum Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,860 (-15%)	1mo	$240,000	$129	54
5043 Canyon Blanco Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,278 (+4%)	8mo	$275,000	$121	51
6014 Pinacle Pt	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,044 (-6%)	2mo	$264,900	$130	50
5726 Coastal Way	0.42mi	4/2.5	1,910 (-12%)	11mo	$285,000	$149	48
5906 Nodaway Creek Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,169 (-1%)	12mo	$309,000	$142	48
5618 Tiger Lilly Way	0.42mi	4/2.5	1,880 (-14%)	10mo	$280,000	$149	47
13915 Nitida St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,890 (-13%)	4mo	$199,900	$106	46
12906 Yarrow Crest Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5	1,860 (-15%)	11mo	$267,000	$144	41
12842 Colony Heath Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,360 (+8%)	12mo	$333,000	$141	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,196
• Equity at exit: $24,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,187
• Equity at exit: $14,308

Cash invested: $46,334 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77045

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$868
• Tax from tax record: −$392 /mo · $4,702/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,682

Max offer price $165,480

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $367	-5% $320	+0% $273	+5% $227	+10% $180
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $193	+0% $273	+5% $354	+10% $434
Rate	-1.0pp $357	-0.5pp $316	base $273	+0.5pp $231	+1.0pp $187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,370
• Closing costs: $4,964
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6023 Heatherbrook Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,899	$1.29	0d	1	1.10mi
13003 Brentlawn Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$1,380	$0.80	14d	1	1.16mi
13023 Cherton Ct Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2751	$2,375	$0.86	22d	1	1.25mi
4023 Glenn Ricki Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2605	$1,860	$0.71	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,480 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,480 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,480 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,480 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $165,480 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $165,480 Pending 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,480 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,480 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,480 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,480 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-05-18
    status Pending 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Traditional 1-story home situated on a generous lot in an established neighborhood. This property offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a functional floor plan ready for customization! Interior features include a spacious living area, primary suite, and a kitchen with adjacent dining space. The house includes a porte-cochere for covered parking and additional driveway space. The backyard offers room for outdoor entertaining or future improvements, including a pool. Property is being sold AS-IS and presents an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. With solid bones and strong potential, this home is ideal for a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or owner-occupant renovation project.

12. 2026-05-09
    price $165,480 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Traditional 1-story home situated on a generous lot in an established neighborhood. This property offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a functional floor plan ready for customization! Interior features include a spacious living area, primary suite, and a kitchen with adjacent dining space. The house includes a porte-cochere for covered parking and additional driveway space. The backyard offers room for outdoor entertaining or future improvements, including a pool. Property is being sold AS-IS and presents an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. With solid bones and strong potential, this home is ideal for a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or owner-occupant renovation project.

13. 2026-04-08
    price $181,240 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Traditional 1-story home situated on a generous lot in an established neighborhood. This property offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a functional floor plan ready for customization! Interior features include a spacious living area, primary suite, and a kitchen with adjacent dining space. The house includes a porte-cochere for covered parking and additional driveway space. The backyard offers room for outdoor entertaining or future improvements, including a pool. Property is being sold AS-IS and presents an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. With solid bones and strong potential, this home is ideal for a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or owner-occupant renovation project.

14. 2026-02-20
    listed $197,000 Active 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Traditional 1-story home situated on a generous lot in an established neighborhood. This property offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a functional floor plan ready for customization! Interior features include a spacious living area, primary suite, and a kitchen with adjacent dining space. The house includes a porte-cochere for covered parking and additional driveway space. The backyard offers room for outdoor entertaining or future improvements, including a pool. Property is being sold AS-IS and presents an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. With solid bones and strong potential, this home is ideal for a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or owner-occupant renovation project.

15. 2024-08-30
    historical
16. 2024-08-19
    price $171,000
17. 2024-08-05
    price $179,500
18. 2024-08-05
    status Active
19. 2024-07-29
    status Pending
20. 2024-07-23
    price $185,000
21. 2024-07-18
    price $199,000
22. 2024-06-27
    listed $210,000 Active
23. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,702 · $392/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,702 · $392/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,269
• − Property taxes: −$4,702
• − Insurance: −$827
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,947
• − Management: −$1,947
• − Depreciation: −$4,814
• Taxable income: $828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$199
• After-tax cash flow: $3,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,563
• Household income: $59,688
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% Black 37% Two or more races 25% White 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Ukrainian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 49% Arabic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.49%
• Current HPI: 282.5426
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $165,480 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $181,240 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $197,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $171,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $179,500 HARMLS
• 2024-08-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-07-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-07-23 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-18 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-27 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,702 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.