30409 N Willow St · Livingston, LA 70754

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,688 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 1975 2.00 ac lot Est $304k · 31% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3BR/2BA home sits on 2-acre lot in Livingston! Beautiful, treed lot has small pond on front of property. Living room has high ceilings and brick fireplace with hearth. Nice size master suite with ensuite bath. 3rd bedroom is a loft which overlooks living room. Also, has attached one bedroom apartment with living room and separate bedroom area. Nice size barn/storage area behind the home.

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Small pond
• Barn storage area

Tags

• 2 ACRE LOT
• SMALL POND
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• ATTACHED ONE BEDROOM APARTMENT
• BARN STORAGE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($203/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in LA, #2,657 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,369 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,840
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30439 N Willow St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,788 (+6%)	3mo	$322,000	$180	85
30591 N Willow St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,647 (-2%)	12mo	$205,000	$124	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-33,028
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-27,754
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70754

• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $836/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,592

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $76	+0% $17	+5% $-42	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-111	-5% $-47	+0% $17	+5% $81	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $70	base $17	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   3BR/2BA home sits on 2-acre lot in Livingston! Beautiful, treed lot has small pond on front of property. Living room has high ceilings and brick fireplace with hearth. Nice size master suite with ensuite bath. 3rd bedroom is a loft which overlooks living room. Also, has attached one bedroom apartment with living room and separate bedroom area. Nice size barn/storage area behind the home.

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   3BR/2BA home sits on 2-acre lot in Livingston! Beautiful, treed lot has small pond on front of property. Living room has high ceilings and brick fireplace with hearth. Nice size master suite with ensuite bath. 3rd bedroom is a loft which overlooks living room. Also, has attached one bedroom apartment with living room and separate bedroom area. Nice size barn/storage area behind the home.

3. 2026-04-07
   price $209,900 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   3BR/2BA home sits on 2-acre lot in Livingston! Beautiful, treed lot has small pond on front of property. Living room has high ceilings and brick fireplace with hearth. Nice size master suite with ensuite bath. 3rd bedroom is a loft which overlooks living room. Also, has attached one bedroom apartment with living room and separate bedroom area. Nice size barn/storage area behind the home.

4. 2026-04-07
   price $209,900

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   3BR/2BA home sits on 2-acre lot in Livingston! Beautiful, treed lot has small pond on front of property. Living room has high ceilings and brick fireplace with hearth. Nice size master suite with ensuite bath. 3rd bedroom is a loft which overlooks living room. Also, has attached one bedroom apartment with living room and separate bedroom area. Nice size barn/storage area behind the home.

5. 2026-03-11
   price $219,900 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   3BR/2BA home sits on 2-acre lot in Livingston! Beautiful, treed lot has small pond on front of property. Living room has high ceilings and brick fireplace with hearth. Nice size master suite with ensuite bath. 3rd bedroom is a loft which overlooks living room. Also, has attached one bedroom apartment with living room and separate bedroom area. Nice size barn/storage area behind the home.

6. 2026-03-11
   price $219,900

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   3BR/2BA home sits on 2-acre lot in Livingston! Beautiful, treed lot has small pond on front of property. Living room has high ceilings and brick fireplace with hearth. Nice size master suite with ensuite bath. 3rd bedroom is a loft which overlooks living room. Also, has attached one bedroom apartment with living room and separate bedroom area. Nice size barn/storage area behind the home.

7. 2026-02-11
   price $229,900 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   3BR/2BA home sits on 2-acre lot in Livingston! Beautiful, treed lot has small pond on front of property. Living room has high ceilings and brick fireplace with hearth. Nice size master suite with ensuite bath. 3rd bedroom is a loft which overlooks living room. Also, has attached one bedroom apartment with living room and separate bedroom area. Nice size barn/storage area behind the home.

8. 2026-02-11
   price $229,900

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   3BR/2BA home sits on 2-acre lot in Livingston! Beautiful, treed lot has small pond on front of property. Living room has high ceilings and brick fireplace with hearth. Nice size master suite with ensuite bath. 3rd bedroom is a loft which overlooks living room. Also, has attached one bedroom apartment with living room and separate bedroom area. Nice size barn/storage area behind the home.

9. 2026-01-16
   listed $236,500 Active
10. 2026-01-15
    listed $236,500 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    3BR/2BA home sits on 2-acre lot in Livingston! Beautiful, treed lot has small pond on front of property. Living room has high ceilings and brick fireplace with hearth. Nice size master suite with ensuite bath. 3rd bedroom is a loft which overlooks living room. Also, has attached one bedroom apartment with living room and separate bedroom area. Nice size barn/storage area behind the home.

11. 2025-02-24
    listed $244,900 Active
12. 2025-02-24
    listed $244,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$27/mo · 38.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$836
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$3,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$836
• After-tax cash flow: $1,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Livingston

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2657

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,153

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 5% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.25%
• Current HPI: 153.131
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $209,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $209,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $219,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $219,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $229,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $229,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $236,500 GBRMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $236,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-02-24 Listed $244,900 GBRMLS
• 2025-02-24 Listed $244,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $836 · +23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.