408 S 3rd St · Nederland, TX 77627

$184,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1959 Est $147k · 26% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3/1/1 plus carport in established Nederland neighborhood. Living room, dining room area, kitchen with dishwasher. Home is outdated but livable. Washer/dryer hookups are in the garage. There is a screened patio that needs repair, but would be a nice place to relax outside when fixed up. Chain link fenced yard, storage building. With some updating, this would make a great first home or rental property.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• New electrical
• Newly installed roof

Tags

• NEWLY INSTALLED ROOF
• NEW AC
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• SIDE YARD ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; 1-car carport
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in the Anderson Estate subdivision

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Composition roof

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-535/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in Nederland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in TX, #3,906 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Nederland ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #138 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland Park El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 432 students, 54% FRL); Central Middle (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 721 students, 55% FRL); Nederland H S (math 49% / reading 61%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 1,439 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,195 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,544
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
316 S 4th St	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-3%)	5mo	$64,900	$65	88
111 S 4 1/2 St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,032 (0%)	8mo	$179,000	$173	85
508 S 1st 1/2 St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-2%)	14mo	$151,900	$150	76
519 Atlanta Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	960 (-7%)	5mo	$135,000	$141	70
607 S 9th St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,086 (+5%)	18mo	$155,000	$143	56
2110 7th St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (-4%)	3mo	$140,000	$142	54
2602 15th St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,082 (+5%)	4mo	$124,900	$115	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-24,466
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $12,966
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77627

• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,572 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,877/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,628

Max offer price $177,021

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $8	+0% $-45	+5% $-97	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-107	+0% $-45	+5% $17	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $2	base $-45	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
608 S 2nd St Nederland, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,600	$1.71	15d	1	0.18mi
311 Nederland Ave Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,890	$1.39	15d	1	0.19mi
812 S 6th St Nederland, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,500	$1.51	15d	1	0.35mi
1003 Avenue B Nederland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	726	$1,050	$1.45	15d	7	0.59mi
1107 S 16th St Unit 1 Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	1395	$1,250	$0.90	15d	1	1.08mi
1619 Avenue G Unit G Nederland, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	25d	1	1.15mi
1924 Avenue H Unit H Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	1.29mi
1815 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,750	$1.40	25d	1	1.36mi
2150 Merriman St Port Neches, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	15d	1	1.38mi
1820 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	820	$1,150	$1.40	45d	1	1.38mi
1820 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$1,100	$1.31	15d	1	1.38mi
2140 Merriman St Port Neches, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	15d	1	1.38mi
2125 Avenue A Unit A Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	46d	1	1.39mi
2125 Avenue A Unit A Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,600	$1.36	15d	1	1.39mi
2125 Avenue A Unit A Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	25d	1	1.39mi
209 N 22nd St Unit 1 Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 373-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $184,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,384 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$507/yr (+$42/mo · 17.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,877
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,509
• − Management: −$1,509
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$3,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$886
• After-tax cash flow: $351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nederland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832280
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,647
• Composite: 44.95/100
• National rank: #2709
• State rank: #138 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nederland

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #3906

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nederland, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 22,357
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,357
• Household income: $78,001
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 572.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.91%
• Current HPI: 176.2132
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+85.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $184,900 BBOR
• 2026-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-11 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2026-02-26 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-02-23 Listed $99,900 BBOR

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,877 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.