630 Red Oak Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$250,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1986 0.28 ac lot Est $247k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom/ 2 bath home in approx. 1461 square feet. Seller wants to sell "AS IS".

Key facts

• Modern updates
• Outdoor patio area
• Fenced-in backyard

Tags

• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR PATIO AREA
• MODERN UPDATES
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 2 carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built in public-records year
• Exterior features: Patio; Pergola; Rain gutters; Back yard with full wood fencing; Few trees on lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Oven; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas) and fireplace heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Crown molding; High ceilings; High-speed internet; Storage; Granite counters; Aluminum window frames; Gas-started fireplace with raised hearth in the great room
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (1.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Station Elementary School (math 76% / reading 75%, grade A, #4 of 375 statewide, top 1%, 1,035 students, 100% FRL); Madison Central High School (math 5% / reading 63%, grade F, #78 of 197 statewide, top 39%, 1,246 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,331 (1.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.70%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,909
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
636 Live Oak Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+1%)	3mo	$249,000	$169	88
429 S Pin Oak Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-0%)	3mo	$247,500	$170	84
124 Azalea Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-0%)	10mo	$229,500	$158	77
143 Azalea Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+8%)	1mo	$265,000	$168	70
368 Post Oak Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+1%)	7mo	$250,000	$170	70
104 Willow Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-5%)	2mo	$234,900	$170	69
122 Eastwood Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+1%)	8mo	$245,000	$166	64
112 Armonde Ct	0.39mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,563 (+7%)	1mo	$259,000	$166	62
429 Brentwood Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+5%)	10mo	$255,000	$166	62
409 Hawthorne Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+6%)	4mo	$274,999	$177	59
143 Glenwood Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-4%)	9mo	$249,000	$178	58
1022 N Azalea Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+6%)	5mo	$245,000	$159	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-12,955
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $21,227
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $882/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,884

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $591	-5% $520	+0% $449	+5% $379	+10% $308
Rent	-10% $256	-5% $353	+0% $449	+5% $546	+10% $643
Rate	-1.0pp $575	-0.5pp $513	base $449	+0.5pp $385	+1.0pp $319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $250,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-05-29
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-27
   listed $250,000 Active
4. 2022-07-18
   soldstatus
5. 2016-06-27
   soldstatus
6. 2016-02-29
   soldstatus 95-char remark

   Show marketing remark (95 chars)

   Three bedroom/ 2 bath home in approx. 1461 square feet. Seller wants to sell "AS IS".

7. 2015-08-07
   listed $80,000 95-char remark

   Show marketing remark (95 chars)

   Three bedroom/ 2 bath home in approx. 1461 square feet. Seller wants to sell "AS IS".

8. 2010-01-04
   historical
9. 2009-08-05
   listed $145,000
10. 2006-05-18
    soldstatus
11. 2006-04-25
    soldstatus
12. 2006-02-12
    listed $134,900
13. 2003-04-02
    soldstatus
14. 2001-07-02
    soldstatus
15. 1998-06-12
    soldstatus
16. 1996-03-25
    soldstatus
17. 1991-03-04
    soldstatus
18. 1986-07-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $882 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,975 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,093/yr (+$91/mo · 124.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$882
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $1,321
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$317
• After-tax cash flow: $5,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+85.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-27 Listed $250,000 MLSU
• 2022-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2015-08-07 Listed $80,000 MLSU
• 2010-01-04 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2009-08-05 Listed $145,000 MLSU
• 2006-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-04-25 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2006-02-12 Listed $134,900 MLSU
• 2003-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $882 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.