24405 Colonial Willow Dr · Houston, TX 77493

$324,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,977 sqft · Townhouse public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked within a gated Katy community, this 4-bedroom home offers a thoughtful blend of modern comfort and everyday function. Designed with first-floor living, the layout flows effortlessly for both quiet nights at home and entertaining guests. At the heart of the home, the kitchen stands out with a prominent island that provides the perfect gathering space for cooking, dining, and conversation. The primary suite is designed as a relaxing retreat, complete with a spacious walk-in closet and a bath featuring dual vanities, a floating tub, and a separate shower. Conveniently located near I-10 and Highway 99, the home is also just moments from Katy Asiatown, Memorial Hermann Katy Hospital, and

Key facts

• Gated community
• Dual vanities
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• FIRST-FLOOR LIVING
• PROMINENT ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITIES
• FLOATING TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Managed by Beacon Residential Management; Annual association fee of $990; Association covers common areas, recreation facilities, sewer, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2026); 2 stories; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Wood siding; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 5 rooms total (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/open family room layout; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Quartz countertops; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Vanity; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality; Energy-efficient HVAC, insulation and windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (washer/dryer hookups assumed)

🏗️ New construction. The $324,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $349,929.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morton Ranch H S (math 31% / reading 55%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 2,718 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 27% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2728 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $240,437 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,929
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1514 Colonial Gorge Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,925 (-3%)	0mo	$324,900	$169	88
24404 Colonial Mound Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,809 (-8%)	0mo	$319,900	$177	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-88,514
• Equity at exit: $52,176

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-136,317
• Equity at exit: $30,255

Cash invested: $97,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2728
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,404 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,896

Max offer price $281,365

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-190	-5% $-289	+0% $-388	+5% $-487	+10% $-586
Rent	-10% $-578	-5% $-483	+0% $-388	+5% $-293	+10% $-198
Rate	-1.0pp $-212	-0.5pp $-299	base $-388	+0.5pp $-479	+1.0pp $-571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,482
• Closing costs: $10,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1508 Colonial Gorge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1904	$2,650	$1.39	18d	1	0.02mi
1330 W Park Green Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$2,222	$2.10	45d	16	0.18mi
1330 W Park Green Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$2,297	$2.17	0d	15	0.18mi
1330 Park West Green Dr Unit 1363 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,212	$1.52	16d	1	0.21mi
24002 Colonial Pkwy Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$2,262	$2.11	3d	32	0.23mi
1700 Katy Fort Bend Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$2,415	$2.21	3d	33	0.56mi
24414 Leachwood Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,195	$1.29	20d	1	0.65mi
24929 Katy Ranch Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1096	$1,767	$1.61	0d	22	0.72mi
24982 Katy Ranch Rd Unit 24982 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$2,124	$1.54	45d	1	0.73mi
24151 Bella Dolce Ln Unit 24184 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,496	$1.65	45d	1	0.74mi
24151 Bella Dolce Ln Unit 3112 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,214	$1.47	0d	1	0.74mi
24151 Bella Dolce Ln Unit 1 Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1509	$2,313	$1.53	45d	1	0.74mi
24151 Bella Dolce Ln Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,254	$1.49	11d	1	0.74mi
24117 Bella Dolce Ln Katy, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	896	$2,010	$2.24	0d	27	0.77mi
24949 Katy Ranch Rd Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$2,124	$1.54	0d	1	0.79mi
24949 Katy Ranch Rd Unit 3187 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$2,073	$1.50	0d	1	0.79mi
24949 Katy Ranch Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$2,275	$1.65	45d	1	0.82mi
2031 Wigmaker Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,800	$1.26	6d	1	0.83mi
150 Cobia Dr Unit 183 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,005	$1.38	45d	1	0.87mi
150 Cobia Dr Unit 3187 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,954	$1.34	0d	1	0.87mi
150 Cobia Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,994	$1.37	11d	1	0.87mi
2150 Katy Fort Bend Rd Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,848	$1.45	0d	1	0.97mi
2150 Katy Fort Bend Rd Unit 2183 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,821	$1.43	45d	1	0.97mi
24758 Grand Harbor Dr Unit 24791 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,114	$1.47	45d	1	0.98mi
24758 Grand Harbor Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,063	$1.44	0d	1	0.98mi
24758 Grand Harbor Dr Unit 3047 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,114	$1.47	12d	1	1.00mi
302 Cobia Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1217	$2,469	$2.03	0d	23	1.06mi
24764 Grand Harbor Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,909	$1.42	45d	1	1.06mi
24757 Grand Harbor Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1009	$1,889	$1.87	4d	22	1.08mi
23615 Western Centre Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,230	$2.20	0d	31	1.09mi
1002 Katy Gap Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,104	$2.11	0d	115	1.14mi
23414 W Fernhurst Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1352	$3,099	$2.29	0d	30	1.15mi
1724 Partnership Way Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.5	1536	$3,340	$2.17	0d	86	1.17mi
1646 Chilton Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,000	$1.39	6d	1	1.19mi
1616 Partnership Way Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1283	$2,940	$2.29	0d	49	1.23mi
10 Cobia Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,275	$1.56	45d	1	1.27mi
23400 Kingsland Blvd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,314	$2.18	0d	22	1.42mi
125 Prairie Ln Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1292	$3,125	$2.42	0d	200	1.47mi
23615 Kingsland Blvd Katy, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	979	$2,349	$2.40	0d	12	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $324,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $324,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $324,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $324,900 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $324,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,685 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,946 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,261/yr (+$272/mo · 121.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,601
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$10,180
• Taxable loss: −$10,975
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,634
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $324,900 HARMLS