64 Winesap Ln · Wendell, NC 27591

$254,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,127 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2002 0.61 ac lot $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SPACIOUS COUNTRY RANCH IN NEW HOME SUBDIVISION CATHEDRAL CEILING IN FAMILY ROOM AND BAY WINDOW IN MASTER SUITE. COME MAKE THIS HOME YOURS.

Key facts

• Cozy fireplace
• 0.61 acre lot
• Built 2002

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,109; Lot size reported as 26,571 sq ft
• HOA & community: Community association (Flowers Plantation); Association dues $40 per month

Exterior

• Utilities: Water: Other; Sewer: Other
• Home design: Site-built single-story home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as site-built construction
• Exterior features: 0.61-acre lot; Publicly maintained road access; Zoned RAG

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (listed also as None); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-308/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Wendell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#25 in NC, #2,391 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Corinth-Holders Elementary (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #908 of 1,410 statewide, top 67%, 550 students, 60% FRL); Archer Lodge Middle (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,219 students, 40% FRL); Corinth Holders High (math 50% / reading 61%, grade C, #265 of 535 statewide, top 50%, 2,219 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 827 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,873 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-42,190
• Equity at exit: $38,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-35,735
• Equity at exit: $22,039

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27591

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 827
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,556/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,041

Max offer price $250,364

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $46	+0% $-26	+5% $-98	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-105	+0% $-26	+5% $54	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $39	base $-26	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $254,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,090 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$534/yr (+$45/mo · 34.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$1,556
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$4,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,141
• After-tax cash flow: $833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wendell

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #2391

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 29,838
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 29,838
• Household income: $85,224
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 369.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 22% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.20%
• Current HPI: 233.2846
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.40%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1174.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $254,900 TMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $270,000 TMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $275,000 TMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $289,900 TMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $295,800 TMLS
• 2023-12-11 Price Changed $89,900 TMLS
• 2021-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-15 Sold (MLS) $205,000 AMLSNC
• 2021-03-15 Sold (MLS) $205,000 TMLS
• 2021-02-11 Pending — TMLS
• 2021-01-15 Listed $205,000 AMLSNC
• 2021-01-15 Listed $205,000 TMLS
• 2021-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $184,500 Public Records
• 2019-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $159,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-18 Sold (MLS) $159,000 AMLSNC
• 2019-03-18 Sold (MLS) $159,000 TMLS
• 2019-02-11 Pending — TMLS
• 2019-01-17 Listed $161,000 AMLSNC
• 2019-01-17 Listed $161,000 TMLS
• 2018-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $149,500 Public Records
• 2002-11-04 Sold (MLS) $91,900 AMLSNC
• 2002-11-04 Sold (MLS) $91,900 TMLS
• 2002-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-19 Price Changed $189,900 TMLS
• 2002-08-19 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2002-06-17 Listed $89,900 AMLSNC
• 2002-06-17 Listed $89,900 TMLS
• 2002-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,556 · +40.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.