2511 Peaceful Valley Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1977 6,899 sqft lot $125/sqft · at area comps Est $210k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming one-story home featuring three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. The open kitchen with a bar overlooks the spacious living area, complete with a cozy fireplace and an adjacent dining room. Recently updated with new tile throughout, this home offers a comfortable and modern living space. Located near Cypresswood and Hardy Toll Rd, this prime location offers convenience with a fenced backyard for privacy and outdoor activities, as well as a 2-car garage for storage. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home! Schedule a showing today. Property is sold as is, and there is no survey; the seller will not pay for one.

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Cozy fireplace
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COZY FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($885/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pearl M Hirsch El (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 647 students, 86% FRL); Rickey C Bailey Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,065 students, 85% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $210k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.51%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,232
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -0.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23538 Canyon Lake Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (-8%)	1mo	$109,000	$71	78
2330 Piddler Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-9%)	22mo	$259,500	$170	56
23710 Prairie Bird Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,789 (+6%)	8mo	$185,000	$103	50
23029 Apple Arbor Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (+6%)	14mo	$229,000	$129	43
1906 Naplechase Crest Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,739 (+4%)	19mo	$255,000	$147	43
23614 Summer Pine Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,467 (-13%)	12mo	$240,000	$164	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-35,796
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-50,071
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 603
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$495 /mo · $5,941/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,182

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $133	+0% $74	+5% $14	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-16	+0% $74	+5% $164	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $127	base $74	+0.5pp $19	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2911 Cypress Island Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2240	$1,961	$0.88	1d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $210,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-05-08
   price $210,000 670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (670 chars)

   Welcome to this charming one-story home featuring three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. The open kitchen with a bar overlooks the spacious living area, complete with a cozy fireplace and an adjacent dining room. Recently updated with new tile throughout, this home offers a comfortable and modern living space. Located near Cypresswood and Hardy Toll Rd, this prime location offers convenience with a fenced backyard for privacy and outdoor activities, as well as a 2-car garage for storage. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home! Schedule a showing today. Property is sold as is, and there is no survey; the seller will not pay for one.

3. 2026-03-26
   listed $185,000 Active 670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (670 chars)

   Welcome to this charming one-story home featuring three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. The open kitchen with a bar overlooks the spacious living area, complete with a cozy fireplace and an adjacent dining room. Recently updated with new tile throughout, this home offers a comfortable and modern living space. Located near Cypresswood and Hardy Toll Rd, this prime location offers convenience with a fenced backyard for privacy and outdoor activities, as well as a 2-car garage for storage. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home! Schedule a showing today. Property is sold as is, and there is no survey; the seller will not pay for one.

4. 2026-02-21
   listed $1,750
5. 2026-02-19
   historical $1,750
6. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-19
   price $185,000
8. 2026-02-19
   historical
9. 2026-02-05
   listed $178,000 Active
10. 2025-12-30
    listed $1,750
11. 2025-11-18
    soldstatus
12. 2025-11-17
    soldstatus Closed
13. 2025-10-23
    status Pending
14. 2025-10-20
    status Active
15. 2025-10-17
    status Pending
16. 2025-10-09
    listed $99,000 Active
17. 2014-06-20
    soldstatus
18. 2014-05-28
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2014-05-12
    status Pending
20. 2014-05-05
    status Active
21. 2014-05-04
    status Pending
22. 2014-05-04
    status Option Pending
23. 2014-04-23
    price $98,900
24. 2014-04-21
    price $99,900
25. 2014-04-21
    listed $114,900 Active
26. 2013-01-18
    historical
27. 2012-11-10
    listed $69,900 Active
28. 2012-11-01
    historical
29. 2012-04-17
    listed $69,900
30. 2012-04-16
    historical
31. 2011-04-01
    listed $59,000
32. 1998-08-01
    soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,941 · $495/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,941 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$5,941
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,184
• − Management: −$2,184
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$2,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$578
• After-tax cash flow: $1,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed for Rent $1,750 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Rental Removed $1,750 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $178,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed for Rent $1,750 HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-11-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2014-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-23 Price Changed $98,900 HARMLS
• 2014-04-21 Price Changed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2014-04-21 Listed $114,900 HARMLS
• 2013-01-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-11-10 Listed $69,900 HARMLS
• 2012-11-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-04-17 Listed $69,900 HARMLS
• 2012-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-04-01 Listed $59,000 HARMLS
• 1998-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,941 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.