12 Hillside Dr · Milton, NY 12542

$499,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,206 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1987 1.10 ac lot $156/sqft · 40% below area Est $837k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set on over an acre in the sought-after hamlet of Marlboro, this expansive 3,200 sq ft split-level delivers space, flow, and effortless living just minutes to the Mid-Hudson Bridge. A bright, open-concept layout anchors the home, featuring hardwood floors and a beautifully updated kitchen with granite countertops, double ovens, and full stainless steel appliance package—designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a private retreat with a renovated tiled bath, Jacuzzi tub, double vanities, walk-in closet, and its own balcony overlooking the property. Two additional generously sized bedrooms provide excellent space and storage. The lower level is where t

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Over an acre
• Double ovens

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DOUBLE OVENS
• PRIVATE RETREAT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Propane; Septic tank; Trash collection (private); Electric service by Central Hudson
• Home design: Single family residence; Actual property condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Terrace; Balcony; Juliet balcony; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop (including gas cooktop); Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Open kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three or more levels (total rooms: 9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Propane heating; No central air
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting; Walk-in closets; Finished full walk-out basement; Home office; Scuttle attic; Deck; Terrace; Balcony; Juliet balcony; Mailbox
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (55.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (46.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (55.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#652 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Marlboro Central School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #366 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marlboro Elementary School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,505 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 761 students, 0% FRL); Marlboro Middle School (math 36% / reading 43%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 433 students, 45% FRL); Marlboro Central High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 628 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $499k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $224,600 (55.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.34%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $836,984
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -40.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 River Vista Dr	0.28mi	3/3.0	2,884 (-10%)	10mo	$1,500,000	$520	60
23 Mclaughlin Dr	0.58mi	3/4.0	2,728 (-15%)	7mo	$515,000	$189	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $138,153
• Equity at exit: $412,457

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $477,945
• Equity at exit: $852,761

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12542

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,673 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$840 /mo · $10,079/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-1,553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,639

Max offer price $224,600

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,271	-5% $-1,412	+0% $-1,553	+5% $-1,695	+10% $-1,836
Rent	-10% $-1,764	-5% $-1,659	+0% $-1,553	+5% $-1,448	+10% $-1,342
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,302	-0.5pp $-1,426	base $-1,553	+0.5pp $-1,683	+1.0pp $-1,814

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $499,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $499,000 Active
3. 1989-03-03
   soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,079 · $840/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,079 · $840/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$10,079
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,566
• − Management: −$2,566
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$28,103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,745
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlboro Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618570
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $68,737
• Composite: 43.7/100
• National rank: #2953
• State rank: #366 of 590 in NY

Livability — Milton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #11825

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,859

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.97%
• Current HPI: 325.4749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+149.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,079 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.