20124 Plum Tree Ln · Estero, FL 33928

$83,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1987 2,395 sqft lot $144/mo HOA · 9% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Look no further for your Florida Home that fits perfectly for the Florida Lifestyle. With Land Ownership and not in a Flood Zone, Cypress Bend Resort is one of Southwest Florida’s most sought-after communities! Perfectly located in the heart of Estero, this vibrant 55-Plus resort-style community offers the ideal blend of relaxation, recreation, and convenience. Ideal for a winter retreat or full-time residence, this home features a cozy setting where you can enjoy your morning coffee in the great room which boasts wide and brightly lit windows combined with the convenience of the additional living space in the Florida Room. Once you step in, you will feel the level of comfort and ease

Key facts

• Not in a flood zone
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• NOT IN A FLOOD ZONE
• GREAT ROOM
• FLORIDA ROOM
• EXCEPTIONAL AMENITIES
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed on a conditional basis (call for details)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Association fee covers cable TV, laundry, grounds maintenance, road maintenance, sewer, street lights, trash, and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, bocce court, pickleball, tennis courts, shuffleboard, pool, spa/hot tub, barbecue and picnic areas, park, trails, sidewalks, management, and laundry; Non-gated community with street lights; Senior community; Community of 401 units

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home; 1 story; Northeast facing; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot; Paved road access; Southwest exposure; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: Florida room; Great room
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Bathtub; Separate/formal dining room; Cable TV; Walk-in closet(s); Single hung windows; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry area inside; Common area laundry available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $613 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $580 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $69k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,866 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.31%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $20,624
• Equity at exit: $12,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $49,611
• Equity at exit: $7,254

Cash invested: $23,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$440
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,179/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$144
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $613

Break-even live

Break-even rent $908

Max offer price $83,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,975
• Closing costs: $2,517
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $144 · $1,728/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $83,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $83,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $83,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-04-08
    listed $89,000 Active
13. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus $69,000
14. 1989-02-01
    soldstatus $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,700
• − Property taxes: −$1,179
• − Insurance: −$420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − HOA: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$2,441
• Taxable income: $6,506
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,561
• After-tax cash flow: $5,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+87.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $89,000 FORTMLS
• 2021-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 1989-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,179 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.