23709 Dowery St · Warsaw, MO 65355

$267,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,340 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 2006 0.80 ac lot $114/sqft · 22% below area Est $344k · 22% under $4/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 2,300 sq ft of living space in a charming 1.5-story layout, located about 200 yards from the water at the Lake of the Ozarks. This home provides plenty of room for family, guests, or a weekend getaway. The comfortable floor plan offers generous living space and bedrooms, making it ideal for both full-time living or a vacation retreat near the lake. One of the standout features of this property is the large shop with electric heat and air, perfect for storing lake toys, working on projects, or creating the ultimate hobby or workshop space. Take advantage of the community dock and boat ramp, giving you easy access to the water for boating, fishing, and enjoying everything the Lake of the Ozarks lifestyle has to offer. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, lake getaway, or investment opportunity, this property offers space, functionality, and close proximity to the water.

Key facts

• Community dock
• Large shop
• Boat ramp

Tags

• LARGE SHOP
• COMMUNITY DOCK
• BOAT RAMP
• EASY ACCESS TO WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-670 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (36.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (44.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#332 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lincoln R-II (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #91 of 324 in MO (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $149,997 (44.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.73%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,018
• List price: $267,900
• Delta: -22.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23316 Bill Bryant Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,560 (+9%)	8mo	$296,500	$116	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $26,012
• Equity at exit: $159,197

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $112,580
• Equity at exit: $281,059

Cash invested: $75,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,018/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,349

Max offer price $170,889

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,975
• Closing costs: $8,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $267,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $267,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $267,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $267,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $267,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $267,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $267,900 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $267,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $267,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $267,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $267,900 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $267,900 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $267,900 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $267,900 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    status Active 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 2,300 sq ft of living space in a charming 1.5-story layout, located about 200 yards from the water at the Lake of the Ozarks. This home provides plenty of room for family, guests, or a weekend getaway. The comfortable floor plan offers generous living space and bedrooms, making it ideal for both full-time living or a vacation retreat near the lake. One of the standout features of this property is the large shop with electric heat and air, perfect for storing lake toys, working on projects, or creating the ultimate hobby or workshop space. Take advantage of the community dock and boat ramp, giving you easy access to the water for boating, fishing, and enjoying everything the Lake of the Ozarks lifestyle has to offer. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, lake getaway, or investment opportunity, this property offers space, functionality, and close proximity to the water.

16. 2026-04-30
    price $269,900 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 2,300 sq ft of living space in a charming 1.5-story layout, located about 200 yards from the water at the Lake of the Ozarks. This home provides plenty of room for family, guests, or a weekend getaway. The comfortable floor plan offers generous living space and bedrooms, making it ideal for both full-time living or a vacation retreat near the lake. One of the standout features of this property is the large shop with electric heat and air, perfect for storing lake toys, working on projects, or creating the ultimate hobby or workshop space. Take advantage of the community dock and boat ramp, giving you easy access to the water for boating, fishing, and enjoying everything the Lake of the Ozarks lifestyle has to offer. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, lake getaway, or investment opportunity, this property offers space, functionality, and close proximity to the water.

17. 2026-04-13
    status Pending 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 2,300 sq ft of living space in a charming 1.5-story layout, located about 200 yards from the water at the Lake of the Ozarks. This home provides plenty of room for family, guests, or a weekend getaway. The comfortable floor plan offers generous living space and bedrooms, making it ideal for both full-time living or a vacation retreat near the lake. One of the standout features of this property is the large shop with electric heat and air, perfect for storing lake toys, working on projects, or creating the ultimate hobby or workshop space. Take advantage of the community dock and boat ramp, giving you easy access to the water for boating, fishing, and enjoying everything the Lake of the Ozarks lifestyle has to offer. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, lake getaway, or investment opportunity, this property offers space, functionality, and close proximity to the water.

18. 2026-03-11
    listed $274,900 Active 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 2,300 sq ft of living space in a charming 1.5-story layout, located about 200 yards from the water at the Lake of the Ozarks. This home provides plenty of room for family, guests, or a weekend getaway. The comfortable floor plan offers generous living space and bedrooms, making it ideal for both full-time living or a vacation retreat near the lake. One of the standout features of this property is the large shop with electric heat and air, perfect for storing lake toys, working on projects, or creating the ultimate hobby or workshop space. Take advantage of the community dock and boat ramp, giving you easy access to the water for boating, fishing, and enjoying everything the Lake of the Ozarks lifestyle has to offer. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, lake getaway, or investment opportunity, this property offers space, functionality, and close proximity to the water.

19. 2023-09-18
    soldstatus Closed 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom - 2 bath home with awesome 30x50 detached garage. Large overhead door with lots of storage. Home has custom built cabinets with island and large dining room. 2 bedrooms on main level of home and 2 large bedrooms and bath upstairs. Sits on 3 large lots! Just one block away from community boat ramp and community slip! Call today to see this home!!

20. 2023-09-05
    status Pending 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom - 2 bath home with awesome 30x50 detached garage. Large overhead door with lots of storage. Home has custom built cabinets with island and large dining room. 2 bedrooms on main level of home and 2 large bedrooms and bath upstairs. Sits on 3 large lots! Just one block away from community boat ramp and community slip! Call today to see this home!!

21. 2023-08-15
    historical 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom - 2 bath home with awesome 30x50 detached garage. Large overhead door with lots of storage. Home has custom built cabinets with island and large dining room. 2 bedrooms on main level of home and 2 large bedrooms and bath upstairs. Sits on 3 large lots! Just one block away from community boat ramp and community slip! Call today to see this home!!

22. 2023-06-29
    status Pending 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom - 2 bath home with awesome 30x50 detached garage. Large overhead door with lots of storage. Home has custom built cabinets with island and large dining room. 2 bedrooms on main level of home and 2 large bedrooms and bath upstairs. Sits on 3 large lots! Just one block away from community boat ramp and community slip! Call today to see this home!!

23. 2023-06-08
    price $219,900 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom - 2 bath home with awesome 30x50 detached garage. Large overhead door with lots of storage. Home has custom built cabinets with island and large dining room. 2 bedrooms on main level of home and 2 large bedrooms and bath upstairs. Sits on 3 large lots! Just one block away from community boat ramp and community slip! Call today to see this home!!

24. 2023-04-14
    listed $239,900 Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom - 2 bath home with awesome 30x50 detached garage. Large overhead door with lots of storage. Home has custom built cabinets with island and large dining room. 2 bedrooms on main level of home and 2 large bedrooms and bath upstairs. Sits on 3 large lots! Just one block away from community boat ramp and community slip! Call today to see this home!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,007
• − Property taxes: −$4,018
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$7,793
• Taxable loss: −$13,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,141
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln R-II
• NCES district ID: 2918670
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $35,713
• Composite: 38.49/100
• National rank: #4182
• State rank: #91 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #15201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+12.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — WCAR
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $269,900 WCAR
• 2026-04-13 Pending — WCAR
• 2026-03-11 Listed $274,900 WCAR
• 2023-09-18 Sold (MLS) — WCAR
• 2023-09-05 Pending — WCAR
• 2023-08-15 Delisted — WCAR
• 2023-06-29 Pending — WCAR
• 2023-06-08 Price Changed $219,900 WCAR
• 2023-04-14 Listed $239,900 WCAR