3537 Fairgreen Ln · Palmdale, CA 93551

$575,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,883 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2001 7,467 sqft lot Est $692k · 17% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One of the best values in the Rancho Vista Golf Course community! Welcome to 3537 Fairgreen Lane, a spacious 4-bedroom home offering flexible living spaces, a 3-car garage, and a layout designed for both everyday comfort and entertaining. The oversized living area provides plenty of room for a pool table, game room, home office, or possible future 5th bedroom conversion similar to other models in the neighborhood. The kitchen features granite countertops, recessed lighting, and opens to inviting living and dining spaces that flow seamlessly to the backyard patio -- perfect for entertaining guests or enjoying warm Antelope Valley evenings. This well-appointed home also offers generous natura

Key facts

• Backyard patio
• Natural light
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OVERSIZED LIVING AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BACKYARD PATIO
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces; Three total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Two-level home
• Construction: Tile roof; No other structures on the lot
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Front yard and back yard with lawn; Walk street view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooking; Microwave; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Freezer; Range/Oven
• Flooring: Tile floors; Laminate floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One 3/4 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Property can be furnished or unfurnished; Main level entry; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $575k).
• Recommended offer: $566k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,550/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 1168% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($566k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $566,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.93%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $691,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3721 Club Rancho Dr	0.16mi	5/4.0	3,032 (+5%)	2mo	$687,000	$227	78
40247 Preston Rd	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,883 (0%)	1mo	$729,750	$253	77
40271 Crestridge	0.41mi	5/3.0	2,883 (0%)	5mo	$590,000	$205	76
40609 Saddle Brook Ct	0.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,850 (-1%)	3mo	$690,000	$242	76
3201 Club Rancho	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,850 (-1%)	2mo	$630,000	$221	73
3813 Tournament Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,850 (-1%)	8mo	$685,000	$240	69
3539 Parkmeadow Ct	0.60mi	5/3.0	2,863 (-1%)	4mo	$690,000	$241	68
40406 Elderberry Ct	0.37mi	5/3.0	2,622 (-9%)	6mo	$655,000	$250	62
40333 Preston Rd	0.34mi	5/3.0	3,256 (+13%)	2mo	$650,000	$200	60
3700 Parkridge Ln	0.61mi	5/3.5	3,054 (+6%)	4mo	$575,000	$188	56
4011 Prestwick Ln	0.47mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,219 (+12%)	1mo	$719,000	$223	53
40062 Chelsea Ct	0.59mi	5/3.0	2,564 (-11%)	4mo	$635,000	$248	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-4,459
• Equity at exit: $85,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $97,362
• Equity at exit: $49,715

Cash invested: $161,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93551

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax from tax record: −$452 /mo · $5,428/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,375
• Net cashflow: $1,467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,693

Max offer price $575,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,750
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3423 Racquet Ln Palmdale, CA	5.0	3.0	2944	$7,500	$2.55	1d	1	0.20mi
4138 Club Vista Dr Palmdale, CA	5.0	4.0	3146	$7,500	$2.38	1d	1	0.71mi
3310 Caspian Dr Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1960	$3,195	$1.63	4d	1	0.79mi
40028 25th St W Palmdale, CA	4.0	3.0	3242	$6,500	$2.00	1d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $575,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $575,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $575,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $575,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $575,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $575,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-05-21
   listed $575,000 Active
8. 2026-04-29
   status Pending Sale
9. 2026-04-29
   historical
10. 2026-03-25
    price $599,000
11. 2026-03-25
    price $599,000
12. 2026-01-28
    status Active
13. 2026-01-09
    price $619,900
14. 2026-01-08
    price $619,900
15. 2025-07-23
    listed $649,000 Active
16. 2025-07-21
    historical
17. 2025-07-16
    historical
18. 2025-03-25
    listed $650,000 Active
19. 2025-03-11
    listed $650,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,428 · $452/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,428 · $452/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,209
• − Property taxes: −$5,428
• − Insurance: −$2,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,288
• − Management: −$6,288
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable income: $8,781
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,107
• After-tax cash flow: $15,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,360
• Household income: $119,801
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 17% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.22%
• Current HPI: 327.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $575,000 TheMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $599,000 AVMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $599,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $619,900 AVMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $619,900 CRMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $649,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listed $650,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listed $650,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,428 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.