219 Grey St · Buffalo, NY 14211

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1923 9,325 sqft lot $158/sqft · 16% above area Est $120k · 16% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0

Key facts

• 9,325 sq ft lot
• Built 1923
• Listed 39 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 186

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Other interior features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,936/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1804% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.20%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,301
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 16.37%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Peach St	0.44mi	3/1.0	940 (+6%)	22mo	$60,000	$64	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $45,766
• Equity at exit: $55,592

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $121,777
• Equity at exit: $80,341

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14211

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
983 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$3,202	$3.98	2d	58	0.73mi
118 Detroit St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	620	$850	$1.37	24d	1	0.79mi
118 Detroit St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	620	$850	$1.37	44d	1	0.79mi
1145 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	655	$2,049	$3.13	44d	1	0.85mi
52 Walden Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	44d	1	0.88mi
628 Ellicott St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,812	$2.65	2d	5	1.07mi
1155 Main St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	592	$2,300	$3.88	44d	1	1.11mi
489 Ellicott St Unit 36 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	1.12mi
19 North St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1306	$2,910	$2.23	10d	7	1.13mi
1152 Main St Apt 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	14d	1	1.14mi
17 N Pearl St Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1077	$2,700	$2.51	24d	1	1.14mi
40 North St Unit 306 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$1,950	$1.73	44d	1	1.15mi
519 Virginia St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$1,700	$2.43	3d	3	1.18mi
130 Linwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	24d	1	1.24mi
408 Winslow Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	14d	1	1.26mi
19 E Utica St Unit 203 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	14d	1	1.27mi
506 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1190	$2,995	$2.52	10d	6	1.31mi
76 Chester St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	14d	1	1.31mi
104 Butler Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	1.34mi
888 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$2,440	$2.71	24d	1	1.40mi
88 W Utica St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	990	$2,150	$2.17	3d	1	1.42mi
88 W Utica St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	990	$2,150	$2.17	14d	1	1.42mi
916 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,625	$2.17	3d	9	1.42mi
213 Summer St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1020	$2,450	$2.40	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $150,000 Active 813-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $4,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,152
• After-tax cash flow: $5,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,663
• Household income: $36,300
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1804.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% White 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Current HPI: 357.6438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $140,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $150,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $208 · +118.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.