5267 Eaton Brook Rd · Morrisville, NY 13334

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,237 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1878 7,841 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Spacious back yard
• Serene creek

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• SERENE CREEK
• SPACIOUS BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in NY, #4,741 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Morrisville-Eaton Central School District (rural): math 59% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #177 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.38%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,307
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5267 Eaton Brook Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,237 (0%)	1mo	$50,000	$40	97
5147 Parsonage St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+12%)	7mo	$154,000	$111	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $45,242
• Equity at exit: $37,767

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.10×
• Total profit: $111,092
• Equity at exit: $65,964

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13334

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,438/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $617

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $497	-5% $479	+0% $461	+5% $442	+10% $424
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $413	+0% $461	+5% $508	+10% $556
Rate	-1.0pp $493	-0.5pp $477	base $461	+0.5pp $444	+1.0pp $427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-13
   listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,438 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,438 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,438
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,154
• After-tax cash flow: $4,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morrisville-Eaton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619920
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 17.00%
• Median HH income: $49,688
• Composite: 55.56/100
• National rank: #1239
• State rank: #177 of 590 in NY

Livability — Morrisville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 887

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,528 people
• By 2030: 66,599 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 59,814 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 52,842 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,167 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 28,442 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Polish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+15.9 2012: D+0.3 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.24%
• Current HPI: 278.0875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $65,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,438 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.