2026 Jessup Lincoln Plan · Evansville, WY 82636

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 58 Days on market

Poor condition $79/sqft · 68% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the "Lincoln" by Jessup Housing, a 16' x 76' single wide home designed for comfort and convenience. With 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, this home offers spacious living for modern families. The kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring cabinetry surrounding the fridge, a large island with a built-in sink and dishwasher, perfect for meal prep and gatherings. A spacious pantry and laundry room located just behind the kitchen adds functionality to the space. The master bathroom is a luxurious retreat, boasting a large soaking tub, double sinks, and a stand-up shower, ensuring relaxation after a long day. With its thoughtful layout and modern amenities, the "Lincoln" embodies the essence of contemporary living. Finished with a breathtaking mountain view as you leave your drive. Located right across the street from the playground, Basketball court, and Dog Park. The safety in the Community make it a great place to raise your family!

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Spacious pantry
• Laundry room

Tags

• LARGE ISLAND
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• MASTER BATHROOM
• SOAKING TUB
• DOUBLE SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#51 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Natrona County School District #1 (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 41 in WY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 310 units permitted in Natrona County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natrona County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.59%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $56,450
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 68.29%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $3,811
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $28,099
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82636

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $367	-5% $334	+0% $301	+5% $268	+10% $236
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $253	+0% $301	+5% $349	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $349	-0.5pp $325	base $301	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $95,000 Active 968-char remark

    Show marketing remark (968 chars)

    Introducing the "Lincoln" by Jessup Housing, a 16' x 76' single wide home designed for comfort and convenience. With 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, this home offers spacious living for modern families. The kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring cabinetry surrounding the fridge, a large island with a built-in sink and dishwasher, perfect for meal prep and gatherings. A spacious pantry and laundry room located just behind the kitchen adds functionality to the space. The master bathroom is a luxurious retreat, boasting a large soaking tub, double sinks, and a stand-up shower, ensuring relaxation after a long day. With its thoughtful layout and modern amenities, the "Lincoln" embodies the essence of contemporary living. Finished with a breathtaking mountain view as you leave your drive. Located right across the street from the playground, Basketball court, and Dog Park. The safety in the Community make it a great place to raise your family!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,164
• − Management: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$537
• After-tax cash flow: $3,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates across all systems and areas, significantly impacting its value. Immediate action is needed to address the poor condition and improve its resale and rental potential.

Repairs flagged

• Major Roof — No visible photos of the roof.
• Major Exterior siding — No visible photos of the exterior siding.
• Major Windows — No visible photos of the windows.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No visible photos of the interior walls/paint.
• Major Flooring — No visible photos of the flooring.
• Major Kitchen — No visible photos of the kitchen.
• Major Bathrooms — No visible photos of the bathrooms.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible photos of the HVAC/mechanicals.
• Major Foundation/structure — No visible photos of the foundation/structure.
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No visible photos of the landscaping/curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both Exterior siding and paint — Updating the exterior would enhance curb appeal and protect the home.
• Both Windows — New windows would improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value.
• Both Interior walls and paint — Fresh paint and updated walls would make the interior more inviting and modern.
• Both Flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both Kitchen and bathrooms — Upgraded kitchens and bathrooms would make the home more functional and attractive.
• Both HVAC/mechanicals — Upgraded HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both Foundation and structure — Stabilizing the foundation and structure would ensure the home's long-term stability and safety.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Roof · No visible photos of the roof.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · No visible photos of the exterior siding.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No visible photos of the windows.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No visible photos of the interior walls/paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No visible photos of the flooring.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen · No visible photos of the kitchen.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No visible photos of the bathrooms.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible photos of the HVAC/mechanicals.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · No visible photos of the foundation/structure.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No visible photos of the landscaping/curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$150,000–500,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Exterior siding and paint — Updating the exterior would enhance curb appeal and protect the home. ↑
• Both Windows — New windows would improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Interior walls and paint — Fresh paint and updated walls would make the interior more inviting and modern. ↑
• Both Flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathrooms — Upgraded kitchens and bathrooms would make the home more functional and attractive. ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanicals — Upgraded HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Foundation and structure — Stabilizing the foundation and structure would ensure the home's long-term stability and safety. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natrona County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5604510
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,217
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3437
• State rank: #32 of 41 in WY

Livability — Evansville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #9711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Evansville, WY
• Population (ZIP): 3,856

Population outlook (Natrona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,530 people
• By 2030: 107,084 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 124,838 · +26.7%
• By 2050: 143,617 · +45.8%
• By 2075: 192,378 · +95.2%
• By 2100: 228,435 · +131.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Natrona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 24.8% · R 73.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -34.4pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+52.2 2012: R+41.1 2008: R+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.77%
• Current HPI: 195.2252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $95,000 Zillow