The Summerfield (865) Plan · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$321,740

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,180 sqft · SingleFamily · 870 Days on market

Fair condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 869 days

🏗️ New construction. The $321,740 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $340,406.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $322k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in Mont Belvieu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 870 days — a 12% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,370 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 870 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.22%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,406
• List price: $321,740
• Delta: -5.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12102 Rushing Ridge Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,180 (0%)	4mo	$336,740	$154	84
12034 Meandering Stream Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,180 (0%)	4mo	$336,140	$154	82
8403 Rio Spring Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,180 (0%)	0mo	$299,540	$137	81
12010 Meandering Stream Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,180 (0%)	2mo	$329,140	$151	81
12031 Rushing Ridge Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,180 (0%)	6mo	$309,090	$142	81
8507 Lake Groove Ln	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,180 (0%)	4mo	$329,000	$151	79
8335 Quiet Bay Dr	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,194 (+1%)	3mo	$325,000	$148	69
12007 Meandering Stream Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-8%)	5mo	$327,340	$163	66
8331 Quiet Bay Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,113 (-3%)	2mo	$314,900	$149	64
8314 Egret Bay Cir	0.75mi	4/3.5	2,225 (+2%)	5mo	$299,000	$134	56
8427 Baywatch Cir	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-12%)	4mo	$315,000	$164	46
8323 Egret Bay Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-8%)	4mo	$317,000	$159	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-70,302
• Equity at exit: $50,756

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-77,393
• Equity at exit: $29,432

Cash invested: $95,314 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,785
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$426 /mo · $5,106/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,978

Max offer price $303,356

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-138	+0% $-256	+5% $-374	+10% $-491
Rent	-10% $-466	-5% $-361	+0% $-256	+5% $-151	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-85	-0.5pp $-169	base $-256	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,101
• Closing costs: $10,212
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12820 Langston Dr Mont Belvieu, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$2,843	$2.64	0d	259	0.84mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	24d	1	0.99mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,081	$1.34	26d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $321,740 Active 870 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $321,740 Active 867 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $321,740 Active 866 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $321,740 Active 865 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $321,740 Active 864 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $321,740 Active 862 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $321,740 Active 858 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $321,740 Active 857 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $321,740 Active 856 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $321,740 Active 853 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $321,740 Active 852 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $316,740 Active 851 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $316,740 Active 850 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $316,740 Active 849 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $315,740 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

16. 2026-05-01
    price $312,740 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

17. 2026-04-29
    price $299,540 239-char remark

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18. 2026-04-22
    price $306,140 239-char remark

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19. 2026-04-02
    price $338,140 239-char remark

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20. 2026-03-18
    price $335,140 239-char remark

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21. 2026-03-07
    price $334,140 239-char remark

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22. 2026-02-25
    price $329,140 239-char remark

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23. 2026-02-12
    price $309,040 239-char remark

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24. 2026-02-06
    price $319,040 239-char remark

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25. 2026-01-23
    price $329,040 239-char remark

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26. 2026-01-03
    price $330,040 239-char remark

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27. 2025-12-19
    price $327,040 239-char remark

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28. 2025-12-18
    price $333,140 239-char remark

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29. 2025-11-20
    price $343,140 239-char remark

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30. 2025-11-01
    price $340,140 239-char remark

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31. 2025-10-02
    price $338,140 239-char remark

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32. 2025-10-01
    price $336,140 239-char remark

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    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

33. 2025-09-27
    price $339,340 239-char remark

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    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

34. 2025-09-26
    price $336,340 239-char remark

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35. 2025-09-17
    price $339,340 239-char remark

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    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

36. 2025-08-29
    price $336,340 239-char remark

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37. 2025-08-28
    price $363,340 239-char remark

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38. 2025-08-19
    price $349,740 239-char remark

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39. 2025-08-01
    price $367,740 239-char remark

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40. 2025-07-18
    price $339,790 239-char remark

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41. 2025-07-11
    price $337,790 239-char remark

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42. 2025-07-02
    price $320,090 239-char remark

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43. 2025-06-24
    price $325,090 239-char remark

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44. 2025-06-19
    price $328,090 239-char remark

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45. 2025-06-18
    price $345,090 239-char remark

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46. 2025-05-29
    price $350,990 239-char remark

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47. 2025-05-10
    price $332,790 239-char remark

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    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

48. 2025-05-06
    price $367,790 239-char remark

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    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

49. 2025-04-22
    price $372,790 239-char remark

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50. 2025-03-27
    price $370,790 239-char remark

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ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,068
• − Property taxes: −$5,106
• − Insurance: −$1,702
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,548
• − Management: −$2,548
• − Depreciation: −$9,903
• Taxable loss: −$9,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,167
• After-tax cash flow: $-905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with updates to the kitchen, HVAC, and landscaping to significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance and visible wear.
• Minor Bathtub and shower fixtures — Functional but dated appearance.
• Minor Paint — Chipped and minor cracks visible.
• Moderate HVAC unit — Appears old and may need maintenance or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Improves both resale and rental value by making the home more appealing.
• Both Upgrading HVAC unit — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency, improving both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance and visible wear.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathtub and shower fixtures · Functional but dated appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint · Chipped and minor cracks visible.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC unit · Appears old and may need maintenance or replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$7,000–36,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Improves both resale and rental value by making the home more appealing. ↑
• Both Upgrading HVAC unit — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency, improving both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

57 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $315,740 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $312,740 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $299,540 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $306,140 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $338,140 Zillow
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $335,140 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $334,140 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $329,140 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $309,040 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $319,040 Zillow
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $329,040 Zillow
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $330,040 Zillow
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $327,040 Zillow
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $333,140 Zillow
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $343,140 Zillow
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $340,140 Zillow
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $338,140 Zillow
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $336,140 Zillow
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $339,340 Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $336,340 Zillow
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $339,340 Zillow
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $336,340 Zillow
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $363,340 Zillow
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $349,740 Zillow
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $367,740 Zillow
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $339,790 Zillow
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $337,790 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $320,090 Zillow
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $325,090 Zillow
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $328,090 Zillow
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $345,090 Zillow
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $350,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-10 Price Changed $332,790 Zillow
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $367,790 Zillow
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $372,790 Zillow
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $370,790 Zillow
• 2025-03-15 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $342,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $349,040 Zillow
• 2025-02-02 Price Changed $356,040 Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $353,040 Zillow
• 2024-12-24 Price Changed $348,040 Zillow
• 2024-11-29 Price Changed $353,040 Zillow
• 2024-11-29 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-10 Price Changed $333,340 Zillow
• 2024-11-03 Price Changed $322,340 Zillow
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $317,340 Zillow
• 2024-10-13 Price Changed $324,670 Zillow
• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $323,390 Zillow
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $321,340 Zillow
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $323,390 Zillow
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed $318,590 Zillow
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $323,390 Zillow
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $317,840 Zillow
• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $337,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-20 Price Changed $334,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-03 Listed $331,990 Zillow