4612 E Valley Brook Rd · Superior, WI 54880

$289,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 1999 5.00 ac lot $141/sqft · 24% below area Est $380k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy one-level country living on 5 acres! This 1999 manufactured home features a spacious and functional floor plan with a large kitchen, dining area, and comfortable living room complete with a fireplace. The primary suite is privately situated on one side of the home and includes an attached bath and walk-in closet, while the other three bedrooms and full bath are located on the opposite side of the home. A convenient entry/mudroom hosts the laundry area and mechanicals. The property is serviced by a drilled well and holding tank. Outside, you’ll find a garage/barn offering great additional storage space. Come explore all this property has to offer and see if it’s the right fit for you!

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Corner of County Rd C and Valley Brook Rd

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Drilled water source (well); Holding tank sewer; Electric service provided by SW L&P; Fuel: Other
• Home design: Residential property; Manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Foundation: Other (foundation dimensions approximately 27 x 76)
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Property located on a 5-acre lot (approx. 330 x 660)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary suite on the main level with private primary bathroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (including main floor full bath and private primary bathroom)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Foyer; Open living and dining areas
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#21 in WI, #337 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-.
• Superior School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #290 of 342 in WI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $194k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,746 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.35%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $379,733
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -23.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4036 S County Rd A	0.11mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,852 (-10%)	7mo	$249,900	$135	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-66,039
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-83,752
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54880

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,347/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $237,226

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $289,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 47 DOM

   Show marketing remark (710 chars)

   Enjoy one-level country living on 5 acres! This 1999 manufactured home features a spacious and functional floor plan with a large kitchen, dining area, and comfortable living room complete with a fireplace. The primary suite is privately situated on one side of the home and includes an attached bath and walk-in closet, while the other three bedrooms and full bath are located on the opposite side of the home. A convenient entry/mudroom hosts the laundry area and mechanicals. The property is serviced by a drilled well and holding tank. Outside, you’ll find a garage/barn offering great additional storage space. Come explore all this property has to offer and see if it’s the right fit for you!

5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $299,900 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Enjoy one-level country living on 5 acres! This 1999 manufactured home features a spacious and functional floor plan with a large kitchen, dining area, and comfortable living room complete with a fireplace. The primary suite is privately situated on one side of the home and includes an attached bath and walk-in closet, while the other three bedrooms and full bath are located on the opposite side of the home. A convenient entry/mudroom hosts the laundry area and mechanicals. The property is serviced by a drilled well and holding tank. Outside, you’ll find a garage/barn offering great additional storage space. Come explore all this property has to offer and see if it’s the right fit for you!

17. 2026-05-08
    price $299,900 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Enjoy one-level country living on 5 acres! This 1999 manufactured home features a spacious and functional floor plan with a large kitchen, dining area, and comfortable living room complete with a fireplace. The primary suite is privately situated on one side of the home and includes an attached bath and walk-in closet, while the other three bedrooms and full bath are located on the opposite side of the home. A convenient entry/mudroom hosts the laundry area and mechanicals. The property is serviced by a drilled well and holding tank. Outside, you’ll find a garage/barn offering great additional storage space. Come explore all this property has to offer and see if it’s the right fit for you!

18. 2026-05-08
    price $299,900 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Enjoy one-level country living on 5 acres! This 1999 manufactured home features a spacious and functional floor plan with a large kitchen, dining area, and comfortable living room complete with a fireplace. The primary suite is privately situated on one side of the home and includes an attached bath and walk-in closet, while the other three bedrooms and full bath are located on the opposite side of the home. A convenient entry/mudroom hosts the laundry area and mechanicals. The property is serviced by a drilled well and holding tank. Outside, you’ll find a garage/barn offering great additional storage space. Come explore all this property has to offer and see if it’s the right fit for you!

19. 2026-04-29
    listed $315,000 Active 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Enjoy one-level country living on 5 acres! This 1999 manufactured home features a spacious and functional floor plan with a large kitchen, dining area, and comfortable living room complete with a fireplace. The primary suite is privately situated on one side of the home and includes an attached bath and walk-in closet, while the other three bedrooms and full bath are located on the opposite side of the home. A convenient entry/mudroom hosts the laundry area and mechanicals. The property is serviced by a drilled well and holding tank. Outside, you’ll find a garage/barn offering great additional storage space. Come explore all this property has to offer and see if it’s the right fit for you!

20. 2026-04-29
    listed $315,000 Active 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Enjoy one-level country living on 5 acres! This 1999 manufactured home features a spacious and functional floor plan with a large kitchen, dining area, and comfortable living room complete with a fireplace. The primary suite is privately situated on one side of the home and includes an attached bath and walk-in closet, while the other three bedrooms and full bath are located on the opposite side of the home. A convenient entry/mudroom hosts the laundry area and mechanicals. The property is serviced by a drilled well and holding tank. Outside, you’ll find a garage/barn offering great additional storage space. Come explore all this property has to offer and see if it’s the right fit for you!

21. 2026-04-29
    listed $315,000 Active 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Enjoy one-level country living on 5 acres! This 1999 manufactured home features a spacious and functional floor plan with a large kitchen, dining area, and comfortable living room complete with a fireplace. The primary suite is privately situated on one side of the home and includes an attached bath and walk-in closet, while the other three bedrooms and full bath are located on the opposite side of the home. A convenient entry/mudroom hosts the laundry area and mechanicals. The property is serviced by a drilled well and holding tank. Outside, you’ll find a garage/barn offering great additional storage space. Come explore all this property has to offer and see if it’s the right fit for you!

22. 2025-08-27
    historical
23. 2025-08-25
    status Active
24. 2025-06-24
    historical Contingent - Other
25. 2025-06-18
    price $285,000
26. 2025-06-17
    listed $275,000 Active
27. 2024-10-16
    soldstatus $194,000
28. 2024-10-15
    soldstatus $194,000
29. 2024-09-04
    listed $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,347 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,847 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,500/yr (+$125/mo · 63.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$2,347
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$8,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,102
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Superior School District
• NCES district ID: 5514670
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,659
• Composite: 24.31/100
• National rank: #7711
• State rank: #290 of 342 in WI

Livability — Superior

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #337

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Douglas County · 30,312 people
• City population: 30,312
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 30,312
• Household income: $68,275
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,505 people
• By 2030: 41,269 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 37,829 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 34,043 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 25,892 · -39.1%
• By 2100: 19,487 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.3) · D 52.0% · R 46.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.9pp toward R · 2008: 33.2pp · 2024: 5.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.3 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+7.6 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.80%
• Current HPI: 226.557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.76%
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+52.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $289,000 SAAR
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $289,000 LSAR
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $289,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $299,900 SAAR
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $299,900 LSAR
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $299,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $315,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $315,000 LSAR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $315,000 SAAR
• 2025-08-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $285,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-17 Listed $275,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $194,000 Public Records
• 2024-10-15 Sold (MLS) $194,000 LSAR
• 2024-09-04 Listed $190,000 LSAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,347 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.