2031 Lenox Dr · Tuscaloosa, AL 35405

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,578 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2003 5,227 sqft lot $151/sqft · 11% below area Est $269k · 11% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2031 Lenox Drive. Located in the the Lenox South Neighborhood. This home offers an easy commute with quick access to I20/59, as well as Shelton State Community College and is priced to sell. Close proximity to shopping, restaurants and Schools. This home offers spacious open layout. Kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space, spacious countertops, a breakfast bar, and a dining area inside located in the kitchen. The primary bedroom has a spacious walk in closet with a spacious master bath, that has garden tub and walk in shower. Two additional bedrooms provide space for family, home office or guest. Enjoy evenings on the covered patio with a manageable fenced in back yard. Spacious 2 car garage for parking or additional storage. This home is affordable and offers convenience to start your home ownership today!

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 462 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $239k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,427 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,272
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -11.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2325 Alexander Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+1%)	3mo	$247,000	$155	83
2124 Stardust Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-8%)	1mo	$220,000	$151	77
2413 Stardust Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-3%)	2mo	$240,000	$157	77
2418 Stardust Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-6%)	1mo	$230,000	$154	74
9931 Lenox Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-10%)	3mo	$238,800	$168	73
2513 Marathon Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-5%)	2mo	$150,000	$100	71
1252 Maxwell Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,557 (-1%)	3mo	$239,900	$154	69
2050 Waterford Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,667 (+6%)	3mo	$263,000	$158	62
1828 Inverness Pkwy	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-3%)	0mo	$240,000	$156	62
10401 Alex Ct	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,559 (-1%)	1mo	$270,756	$174	60
2320 Stone Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-14%)	2mo	$258,040	$190	48
2161 Inverness Pkwy	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,806 (+14%)	2mo	$164,100	$91	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-41,843
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-27,667
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35405

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 462
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,217/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,870

Max offer price $218,661

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-47	+0% $-115	+5% $-183	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-183	+0% $-115	+5% $-47	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-54	base $-115	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9717 Full Moon Cir Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,550	$1.21	15d	1	0.28mi
1451 Maxwell Cir Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1498	$1,745	$1.16	23d	1	0.51mi
9295 Havenridge Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,745	$1.10	45d	1	0.93mi
9594 Havenridge Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,795	$1.07	45d	1	1.08mi
9588 Havenridge Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1961	$1,885	$0.96	45d	1	1.08mi
9582 Havenridge Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1961	$1,885	$0.96	45d	1	1.09mi
9576 Havenridge Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1493	$1,795	$1.20	45d	1	1.10mi
9230 Parkway Gardens Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,995	$1.12	45d	1	1.18mi
9212 Parkway Gardens Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,796	$1.01	45d	1	1.20mi
9332 Parkway Gardens Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1497	$1,706	$1.14	45d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $239,000 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-04-22
    listed $239,000 Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Welcome to 2031 Lenox Drive. Located in the the Lenox South Neighborhood. This home offers an easy commute with quick access to I20/59, as well as Shelton State Community College and is priced to sell. Close proximity to shopping, restaurants and Schools. This home offers spacious open layout. Kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space, spacious countertops, a breakfast bar, and a dining area inside located in the kitchen. The primary bedroom has a spacious walk in closet with a spacious master bath, that has garden tub and walk in shower. Two additional bedrooms provide space for family, home office or guest. Enjoy evenings on the covered patio with a manageable fenced in back yard. Spacious 2 car garage for parking or additional storage. This home is affordable and offers convenience to start your home ownership today!

19. 2026-04-16
    historical $239,000 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Welcome to 2031 Lenox Drive. Located in the the Lenox South Neighborhood. This home offers an easy commute with quick access to I20/59, as well as Shelton State Community College and is priced to sell. Close proximity to shopping, restaurants and Schools. This home offers spacious open layout. Kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space, spacious countertops, a breakfast bar, and a dining area inside located in the kitchen. The primary bedroom has a spacious walk in closet with a spacious master bath, that has garden tub and walk in shower. Two additional bedrooms provide space for family, home office or guest. Enjoy evenings on the covered patio with a manageable fenced in back yard. Spacious 2 car garage for parking or additional storage. This home is affordable and offers convenience to start your home ownership today!

20. 2019-04-12
    soldstatus $140,000
21. 2014-11-12
    listed $151,000
22. 2006-09-11
    soldstatus $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,217 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,217 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,217
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$5,647
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,355
• After-tax cash flow: $-26/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tuscaloosa

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2909

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 134,228
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 49,420
• Household income: $62,301
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1963.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.25%
• Current HPI: 193.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.42%
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+64.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $239,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $239,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-12 Listed $151,000 WAMLS
• 2006-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,217 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.