802 Burning Tree Ct · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1970 1.30 ac lot $180/sqft · 16% below area Est $249k · 10% under $250/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This Bavarian-Style two story view-home is being offered by its original family owners after 56 years of care. A rare renovation opportunity, set on 1.3 wooded acres on a cul de sac, the property offers a peaceful country setting and a true sense of retreat. Inside you will find warm rustic character with rich wood paneling, hardwood floors under carpet, and wood ceilings. A galley kitchen is open to the dining area with large windows. Ready for your personal touch, this home is ideal as a weekend getaway, or year round living for a small family. Take advantage of Hemlock Farms' lakes, pools, clubhouse and outdoor recreation. Set up your appointment today!

Key facts

• 1.3 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Annual association fee $2,995 (approximately $249.58/month); Association fee includes security, trash and snow removal; Community amenities: pool (including indoor/community pool), clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, basketball court, playground, park, trails, picnic area, meeting/party rooms, game/billiard room, spa/hot tub, dog park, exercise course, golf course/rights/access, beach access/rights, gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: 24-hour security; Security gate with guard; Gated community
• Utilities: 200+ amp electric service; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels; Entry level 1
• Construction: Structure: House
• Exterior features: Deck; Wooded, level and private lot with many trees; View of Hemlock Lake; Paved road; private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.61%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,709
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -9.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Horseshoe Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,315 (+5%)	7mo	$269,000	$205	67
144 Pommel Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,282 (+3%)	14mo	$265,000	$207	66
120 Burning Tree Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+9%)	10mo	$250,000	$184	64
809 Lasso Ct N	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,368 (+10%)	12mo	$279,000	$204	60
119 Pommel Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-2%)	2mo	$195,000	$159	59
140 Gaskin Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	9mo	$287,500	$261	51
114 Hillside Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,112 (-11%)	16mo	$186,000	$167	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $215,015
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.90×
• Total profit: $560,896
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,242/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $1,449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,165

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Portage Ln Milford, PA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	1d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $225,000 Active 664-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,242 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,899 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$656/yr (+$55/mo · 29.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,242
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,840
• − Management: −$3,840
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $14,804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,553
• After-tax cash flow: $13,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $225,000 PWMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,242 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.