19515 Horden Creek Dr · Houston, TX 77375

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1983 6,590 sqft lot $163/sqft · 11% below area Est $247k · 11% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming one story home with three bedrooms in Three Lakes. Open floor plan with a large gourmet kitchen and granite countertops, family room has high ceilings, large windows and a gas fireplace. Primary suite has walk-in shower with double heads, double vanities, and slate tile surround in the shower. There’s also a study right outside the master, which is perfect for home office.

Key facts

• Vaulted ceiling
• Private backyard
• No carpet

Tags

• ONE STORY BRICK HOME
• COZY FIREPLACE
• VAULTED CEILING
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• NO CARPET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Three Lakes Community HOA with $350 annual association fee; Community pool; Curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1983; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard fence; Subdivision setting; Concrete road/driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 12); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 11 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 10); Bonus room on first floor (approx. 9 x 7)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (1); Double vanities; High ceilings with vaulted ceiling(s); Kitchen and family room combo; Pantry; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kohrville El (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 736 students, 64% FRL); Klein Cain H S (math 43% / reading 57%, grade D+, #495 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 3,902 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 37% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,414 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,742
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -14.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19515 Horden Creek Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,346 (0%)	13mo	$209,900	$156	89
12039 Lucky Meadow Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+10%)	0mo	$247,000	$166	63
19330 Evening Glen Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,165 (-13%)	6mo	$186,000	$160	63
12210 Evening Glen Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-9%)	15mo	$239,000	$196	61
12019 Sandy Stream Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+0%)	22mo	$235,000	$174	57
11822 Sandy Stream Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,319 (-2%)	10mo	$210,000	$159	56
11802 Rolling Stream Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,392 (+3%)	9mo	$214,995	$154	52
19515 Shady Bank Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,373 (+2%)	17mo	$219,000	$160	48
20119 Niagara Falls Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	3mo	$260,000	$169	46
19030 Piney Way Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,529 (+14%)	11mo	$275,000	$180	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-53,754
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-84,607
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77375

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,984 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$489 /mo · $5,865/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,232

Max offer price $185,414

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11810 Rolling Stream Dr Tomball, TX	3.0	2.5	1590	$1,700	$1.07	17d	1	0.73mi
11811 Sunny Stream Dr Tomball, TX	3.0	2.5	1740	$1,785	$1.03	44d	1	0.77mi
11706 Sardis Lake Dr Unit 1570350P Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1194	$5,540	$4.64	2d	1	0.82mi
19414 Ambrosia Falls Dr Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,695	$1.26	24d	1	0.96mi
11740 Northpointe Blvd Tomball, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1198	$2,423	$2.02	1d	17	1.00mi
11743 Northpointe Blvd Tomball, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,699	$1.72	2d	19	1.10mi
18315 Westlock St Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1137	$1,700	$1.50	17d	1	1.25mi
11201 Boudreaux Cir Tomball, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,799	$1.68	44d	1	1.27mi
12101 Northpointe Blvd Tomball, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,879	$1.90	44d	1	1.28mi
12107 Northpointe Blvd Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	1165	$1,406	$1.21	44d	1	1.31mi
11114 Kingsnorth Dr Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,869	$1.15	8d	1	1.37mi
11411 Edmond Thorpe Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$2,750	$2.04	44d	1	1.37mi
12215 Bowsman Dr Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,310	$1.23	13d	1	1.41mi
10921 Boudreaux Rd Tomball, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$1,980	$1.82	3d	42	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $220,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 629-char remark
8. 2026-05-06
   price $210,000 629-char remark
9. 2026-04-25
   status Active 629-char remark
10. 2026-04-22
    status Pending 629-char remark
11. 2026-04-15
    status Pending 629-char remark
12. 2026-03-26
    listed $215,000 Active 629-char remark
13. 2025-05-22
    soldstatus
14. 2025-05-09
    soldstatus Sold 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Charming one story home with three bedrooms in Three Lakes. Open floor plan with a large gourmet kitchen and granite countertops, family room has high ceilings, large windows and a gas fireplace. Primary suite has walk-in shower with double heads, double vanities, and slate tile surround in the shower. There’s also a study right outside the master, which is perfect for home office.

15. 2025-04-25
    status Pending, Continue to Show 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Charming one story home with three bedrooms in Three Lakes. Open floor plan with a large gourmet kitchen and granite countertops, family room has high ceilings, large windows and a gas fireplace. Primary suite has walk-in shower with double heads, double vanities, and slate tile surround in the shower. There’s also a study right outside the master, which is perfect for home office.

16. 2025-04-21
    status Option Pending 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Charming one story home with three bedrooms in Three Lakes. Open floor plan with a large gourmet kitchen and granite countertops, family room has high ceilings, large windows and a gas fireplace. Primary suite has walk-in shower with double heads, double vanities, and slate tile surround in the shower. There’s also a study right outside the master, which is perfect for home office.

17. 2025-04-15
    price $209,900 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Charming one story home with three bedrooms in Three Lakes. Open floor plan with a large gourmet kitchen and granite countertops, family room has high ceilings, large windows and a gas fireplace. Primary suite has walk-in shower with double heads, double vanities, and slate tile surround in the shower. There’s also a study right outside the master, which is perfect for home office.

18. 2025-04-09
    price $215,900 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Charming one story home with three bedrooms in Three Lakes. Open floor plan with a large gourmet kitchen and granite countertops, family room has high ceilings, large windows and a gas fireplace. Primary suite has walk-in shower with double heads, double vanities, and slate tile surround in the shower. There’s also a study right outside the master, which is perfect for home office.

19. 2025-03-31
    price $219,900 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Charming one story home with three bedrooms in Three Lakes. Open floor plan with a large gourmet kitchen and granite countertops, family room has high ceilings, large windows and a gas fireplace. Primary suite has walk-in shower with double heads, double vanities, and slate tile surround in the shower. There’s also a study right outside the master, which is perfect for home office.

20. 2025-03-26
    price $223,000 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Charming one story home with three bedrooms in Three Lakes. Open floor plan with a large gourmet kitchen and granite countertops, family room has high ceilings, large windows and a gas fireplace. Primary suite has walk-in shower with double heads, double vanities, and slate tile surround in the shower. There’s also a study right outside the master, which is perfect for home office.

21. 2025-03-26
    status Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Charming one story home with three bedrooms in Three Lakes. Open floor plan with a large gourmet kitchen and granite countertops, family room has high ceilings, large windows and a gas fireplace. Primary suite has walk-in shower with double heads, double vanities, and slate tile surround in the shower. There’s also a study right outside the master, which is perfect for home office.

22. 2025-03-24
    status Pending 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Charming one story home with three bedrooms in Three Lakes. Open floor plan with a large gourmet kitchen and granite countertops, family room has high ceilings, large windows and a gas fireplace. Primary suite has walk-in shower with double heads, double vanities, and slate tile surround in the shower. There’s also a study right outside the master, which is perfect for home office.

23. 2025-03-13
    status Option Pending 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Charming one story home with three bedrooms in Three Lakes. Open floor plan with a large gourmet kitchen and granite countertops, family room has high ceilings, large windows and a gas fireplace. Primary suite has walk-in shower with double heads, double vanities, and slate tile surround in the shower. There’s also a study right outside the master, which is perfect for home office.

24. 2025-03-05
    listed $226,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Charming one story home with three bedrooms in Three Lakes. Open floor plan with a large gourmet kitchen and granite countertops, family room has high ceilings, large windows and a gas fireplace. Primary suite has walk-in shower with double heads, double vanities, and slate tile surround in the shower. There’s also a study right outside the master, which is perfect for home office.

25. 2015-04-06
    soldstatus
26. 2015-04-02
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2015-03-31
    status Pending
28. 2015-03-23
    status Option Pending
29. 2015-03-19
    listed $125,000 Active
30. 2012-07-03
    soldstatus
31. 2011-11-22
    soldstatus
32. 2011-11-14
    soldstatus
33. 2011-10-17
    historical
34. 2011-07-06
    listed $89,000
35. 1999-03-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,865 · $489/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,865 · $489/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$5,865
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,905
• − Management: −$1,905
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,449
• After-tax cash flow: $-900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,311
• Household income: $102,488
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.81%
• Current HPI: 233.6155
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+147.2% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-05-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $215,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $223,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Listed $226,000 HARMLS
• 2015-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-04-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-03-19 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2012-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-11-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-10-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-07-06 Listed $89,000 HARMLS
• 1999-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,865 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.