4203 Cardoon Dr · Elfers, FL 34653

$67,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $79k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Winter Get Away or Rental! This is a wonderful updated 2 Bedroom Mobile Home with new air conditioner, new stamped concrete driveway, new hot water heater and updated kitchen. This Mobile has a very nice screened enclosure and storage sheds. Don't miss out! The sellers unexpectedly found a new home and are taking a loss.

Key facts

• Low water bill
• Built 1980
• Listed 21 days

Tags

• CENTRAL HEATING AND AIR
• LOW WATER BILL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 852

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1980; Single-family property (details on stories and facing direction not provided)
• Construction: Built in 1980
• Exterior features: Located in the Virginia City subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Number of bedrooms not provided
• Bathrooms: Number of bathrooms not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $67k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.7% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $67k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,995 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.31%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,624
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4100 Cardoon Dr	0.11mi	2/1.5	672 (0%)	21mo	$60,000	$89	76
5713 Sunshine Park Dr	0.64mi	2/1.5	672 (0%)	4mo	$69,000	$103	65
4239 Memphis Ave	0.38mi	2/1.5	600 (-11%)	2mo	$70,000	$117	60
5609 Sunshine Park Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	720 (+7%)	2mo	$98,000	$136	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $21,467
• Equity at exit: $9,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $50,460
• Equity at exit: $5,793

Cash invested: $18,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34653

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,093/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $568

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $67,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,750
• Closing costs: $2,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5844 Sunshine Park Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	672	$1,100	$1.64	2d	1	0.52mi
6807 Porter Rd Unit PCG G-202 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	605	$1,025	$1.69	4d	1	0.88mi
4540 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	24d	1	1.10mi
4551 Audrey Ln NEW PRT RCHY, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	21d	1	1.10mi
4518 Audrey Ln Unit 4551 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	21d	1	1.12mi
4529 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	21d	1	1.13mi
5333 Pasadena Dr Unit 5333 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	17d	1	1.16mi
4744 Azalea Dr #204 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	736	$1,100	$1.49	20d	1	1.17mi
7425 Trouble Creek Rd New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,604	$1.97	1d	15	1.19mi
4722 Kennedy Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	504	$850	$1.69	24d	1	1.22mi
7320 Broadmoor Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$1,715	$2.24	1d	59	1.32mi
5149 Tangelo Dr Apt B New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	350	$1,195	$3.41	24d	1	1.35mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	3d	1	1.46mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $67,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $67,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $67,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $67,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $67,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-05-25
    listed $67,000 Active
12. 2018-05-04
    soldstatus $41,000 Sold 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Great Winter Get Away or Rental! This is a wonderful updated 2 Bedroom Mobile Home with new air conditioner, new stamped concrete driveway, new hot water heater and updated kitchen. This Mobile has a very nice screened enclosure and storage sheds. Don't miss out! The sellers unexpectedly found a new home and are taking a loss.

13. 2018-04-25
    status Pending 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Great Winter Get Away or Rental! This is a wonderful updated 2 Bedroom Mobile Home with new air conditioner, new stamped concrete driveway, new hot water heater and updated kitchen. This Mobile has a very nice screened enclosure and storage sheds. Don't miss out! The sellers unexpectedly found a new home and are taking a loss.

14. 2018-04-13
    price $49,900 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Great Winter Get Away or Rental! This is a wonderful updated 2 Bedroom Mobile Home with new air conditioner, new stamped concrete driveway, new hot water heater and updated kitchen. This Mobile has a very nice screened enclosure and storage sheds. Don't miss out! The sellers unexpectedly found a new home and are taking a loss.

15. 2018-03-20
    listed $51,975 Active 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Great Winter Get Away or Rental! This is a wonderful updated 2 Bedroom Mobile Home with new air conditioner, new stamped concrete driveway, new hot water heater and updated kitchen. This Mobile has a very nice screened enclosure and storage sheds. Don't miss out! The sellers unexpectedly found a new home and are taking a loss.

16. 2010-03-03
    soldstatus $25,000 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    WOW! Real sweet home at a great price! Many new features: Refrigerator (4 Yrs), washer/dryer (3 yrs), A/C (7 yrs), 20' screened lanai (7 yrs), wood parquet floors (2 yrs), double roof (9 yrs), Open spacious floor plan - large bathroom - split bedrooms - shiny floors, fenced yard - No Flood Zone - No Association fees - No age or pet restrictions!

17. 2010-01-18
    listed $28,900 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    WOW! Real sweet home at a great price! Many new features: Refrigerator (4 Yrs), washer/dryer (3 yrs), A/C (7 yrs), 20' screened lanai (7 yrs), wood parquet floors (2 yrs), double roof (9 yrs), Open spacious floor plan - large bathroom - split bedrooms - shiny floors, fenced yard - No Flood Zone - No Association fees - No age or pet restrictions!

18. 1981-05-01
    soldstatus $22,000
19. 1980-04-01
    soldstatus $20,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,093 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,093 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,753
• − Property taxes: −$1,093
• − Insurance: −$335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,261
• − Management: −$1,261
• − Depreciation: −$1,949
• Taxable income: $6,113
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,467
• After-tax cash flow: $5,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,945
• Household income: $49,563
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1439.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.10%
• Current HPI: 324.6519
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+226.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $67,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-05-04 Sold (MLS) $41,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-13 Price Changed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-20 Listed $51,975 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-03 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-18 Listed $28,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1981-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1980-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,093 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.