2306 Briarwood Dr · Mission, TX 78574

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,684 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 504 Days on market

Built 1982 8,498 sqft lot $102/sqft · at area comps Est $274k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Renovated, remodeled, and rejuvenated! This expansive 4 bed / 2 bath home has a very spacious 2684 living SF space on a .2 ACRE lot! Great wide rooms in a traditional home that has great style and form! From the entrance you are greeted at the foyer and given several options such as using the office, dining room, or entering the rest of the home that opens up beautifully! Brand new kitchen appliances! Some bedrooms even have sinks for washing up out of just pure convenience! Location is very good and centralized in Mission. This home is a must see if you're looking for a great value! Call today!

Key facts

• Office
• Bedrooms with sinks
• Dining room

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING SF
• OFFICE
• DINING ROOM
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• BEDROOMS WITH SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,328/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 803% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 504 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,821 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 504 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.27%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,162
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: 0.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1012 Thornwood Dr	0.36mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,748 (+2%)	10mo	$250,000	$91	60
906 Las Brisas Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,519 (-6%)	4mo	$295,000	$117	57
2212 N Bryan Rd	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,524 (-6%)	4mo	$329,000	$130	53
1106 Fairway Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,468 (-8%)	1mo	$539,000	$218	43
1108 Rio Concho	0.54mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,012 (+12%)	8mo	$449,900	$149	37
2201 Clinton Ave	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,495 (-7%)	24mo	$315,000	$126	35
2310 Warjebo Trl	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,026 (+13%)	16mo	$450,000	$149	33
2802 Christen Cir	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,348 (-12%)	21mo	$299,000	$127	30
1710 Miller Ave	0.54mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,053 (+14%)	16mo	$395,000	$129	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-57,797
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-67,020
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,328 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$492 /mo · $5,908/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,594

Max offer price $237,939

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-54	-5% $-132	+0% $-210	+5% $-288	+10% $-365
Rent	-10% $-394	-5% $-302	+0% $-210	+5% $-118	+10% $-26
Rate	-1.0pp $-71	-0.5pp $-140	base $-210	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2216 Robyn Ln Mission, TX	3.0	3.0	2033	$2,000	$0.98	22d	1	0.63mi
1412 E 28th St Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2068	$2,300	$1.11	24d	1	0.99mi
1511 E 28th St Mission, TX	4.0	2.5	2741	$2,400	$0.88	45d	1	1.10mi
1604 Toni Ln Mission, TX	2.0	2.5	2848	$1,800	$0.63	15d	1	1.10mi
1301 San Felipe Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2788	$2,100	$0.75	45d	1	1.12mi
1606 Terrace Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2127	$2,600	$1.22	15d	1	1.21mi
2516 Wisteria Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,800	$1.36	15d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 504 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 501 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 500 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 499 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 498 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 496 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 493 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 492 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 491 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 490 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 486 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 485 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 484 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 483 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 482 DOM
16. 2026-01-16
    price $275,000 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    Renovated, remodeled, and rejuvenated! This expansive 4 bed / 2 bath home has a very spacious 2684 living SF space on a .2 ACRE lot! Great wide rooms in a traditional home that has great style and form! From the entrance you are greeted at the foyer and given several options such as using the office, dining room, or entering the rest of the home that opens up beautifully! Brand new kitchen appliances! Some bedrooms even have sinks for washing up out of just pure convenience! Location is very good and centralized in Mission. This home is a must see if you're looking for a great value! Call today!

17. 2025-05-19
    price $289,000 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    Renovated, remodeled, and rejuvenated! This expansive 4 bed / 2 bath home has a very spacious 2684 living SF space on a .2 ACRE lot! Great wide rooms in a traditional home that has great style and form! From the entrance you are greeted at the foyer and given several options such as using the office, dining room, or entering the rest of the home that opens up beautifully! Brand new kitchen appliances! Some bedrooms even have sinks for washing up out of just pure convenience! Location is very good and centralized in Mission. This home is a must see if you're looking for a great value! Call today!

18. 2025-02-02
    listed $299,000 Active 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    Renovated, remodeled, and rejuvenated! This expansive 4 bed / 2 bath home has a very spacious 2684 living SF space on a .2 ACRE lot! Great wide rooms in a traditional home that has great style and form! From the entrance you are greeted at the foyer and given several options such as using the office, dining room, or entering the rest of the home that opens up beautifully! Brand new kitchen appliances! Some bedrooms even have sinks for washing up out of just pure convenience! Location is very good and centralized in Mission. This home is a must see if you're looking for a great value! Call today!

19. 2024-02-25
    listed $279,000 Active
20. 2023-09-06
    price $279,000
21. 2023-08-03
    status Active
22. 2023-08-03
    listed $295,000 Active
23. 2023-06-26
    listed $295,000 Active
24. 2023-01-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,908 · $492/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,908 · $492/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,908
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,235
• − Management: −$2,235
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,733
• After-tax cash flow: $-785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $275,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $289,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-02-02 Listed $299,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-02-25 Listed $279,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $279,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-08-03 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-08-03 Listed $295,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-06-26 Listed $295,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,908 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.