540 Yukon Rd · Running Springs, CA 92341

$299,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 485 Days on market

Built 1983 3,150 sqft lot $297/sqft · 18% below area Est $365k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Reduced! Possible Seller Carry. Located in the quaint town of Green Valley Lake, where memories are made all year long. Large level corner lots. Featuring a two bedroom and one bathroom cabin that comes with two additional vacant lots, for a square footage of 9020 feet per county record with easy access during the winter months with 5 car plus parking. Cozy great room with a wood burning stove to snuggle up to during those cold winter nights. Beautiful T & G wood ceilings. Deck off living area for indoor/outdoor living during the summertime, to enjoy BBQ`s or just relaxing, even bird watching. Storage/workshop. Bright open kitchen. Close to town, marina and lake for boating, fishing and swimming. Green Valley Lake is a great year around community that is surrounded by national forest that has plenty of hiking trails for those avid hikers or snowshoeing during the winter months. Come and see what this charming little town has to offer you!

Key facts

• Deck off living area
• Storage workshop
• Bright open kitchen

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• DECK OFF LIVING AREA
• STORAGE WORKSHOP
• BRIGHT OPEN KITCHEN
• SURROUNDED BY NATIONAL FOREST
• PLENTY OF HIKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Running Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#333 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Charles Hoffman Elementary (295 students, 54% FRL); Mary P. Henck Intermediate (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 585 students, 61% FRL); Rim of The World Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 917 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 485 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $299k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,855 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 485 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,556
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -17.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33480 Weeping Willow Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-1%)	6mo	$285,000	$285	85
33382 Squirrel Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,002 (-1%)	9mo	$315,000	$314	84
33168 Maple Ln	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,042 (+3%)	2mo	$340,000	$326	78
559 Beechnut Dr	0.06mi	2/1.5	896 (-11%)	6mo	$299,000	$334	72
33003 Juniper Ln	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+1%)	10mo	$435,000	$426	64
732 Tulip Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0	864 (-14%)	5mo	$349,000	$404	60
33387 Robin Dr	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,080 (+7%)	8mo	$315,000	$292	57
33294 Wild Rose Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	868 (-14%)	11mo	$307,000	$354	55
33794 Meadow Ln	0.54mi	2/1.0	900 (-11%)	9mo	$312,500	$347	50
33355 Lakeside Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	12mo	$450,000	$391	50
577 Oak Knoll Cir	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	884 (-12%)	19mo	$290,000	$328	48
32991 Canyon Dr	0.59mi	2/1.5	1,152 (+14%)	6mo	$320,000	$278	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-63,046
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-73,942
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92341

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,079 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,127/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,367

Max offer price $258,765

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-143	+0% $-228	+5% $-312	+10% $-397
Rent	-10% $-392	-5% $-310	+0% $-228	+5% $-146	+10% $-64
Rate	-1.0pp $-77	-0.5pp $-152	base $-228	+0.5pp $-305	+1.0pp $-384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
558 Beechnut Dr Green Valley Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	0d	1	0.06mi
563 Beechnut Dr Green Valley Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	1344	$1,950	$1.45	0d	1	0.09mi
33424 Holcomb Creek Dr Unit NA Green Valley Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,850	$1.71	0d	1	0.10mi
691 Yukon Dr Unit B Green Valley Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	840	$3,000	$3.57	0d	1	0.22mi
33529 Green Valley Lake Rd Green Valley Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$2,200	$2.55	13d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 485 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 482 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 481 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 480 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 479 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 477 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 476 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 473 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 472 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 471 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 468 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 467 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 466 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 465 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 464 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    status Active 964-char remark

    Show marketing remark (964 chars)

    Price Reduced! Possible Seller Carry. Located in the quaint town of Green Valley Lake, where memories are made all year long. Large level corner lots. Featuring a two bedroom and one bathroom cabin that comes with two additional vacant lots, for a square footage of 9020 feet per county record with easy access during the winter months with 5 car plus parking. Cozy great room with a wood burning stove to snuggle up to during those cold winter nights. Beautiful T & G wood ceilings. Deck off living area for indoor/outdoor living during the summertime, to enjoy BBQ`s or just relaxing, even bird watching. Storage/workshop. Bright open kitchen. Close to town, marina and lake for boating, fishing and swimming. Green Valley Lake is a great year around community that is surrounded by national forest that has plenty of hiking trails for those avid hikers or snowshoeing during the winter months. Come and see what this charming little town has to offer you!

17. 2026-03-04
    historical 964-char remark

    Show marketing remark (964 chars)

    Price Reduced! Possible Seller Carry. Located in the quaint town of Green Valley Lake, where memories are made all year long. Large level corner lots. Featuring a two bedroom and one bathroom cabin that comes with two additional vacant lots, for a square footage of 9020 feet per county record with easy access during the winter months with 5 car plus parking. Cozy great room with a wood burning stove to snuggle up to during those cold winter nights. Beautiful T & G wood ceilings. Deck off living area for indoor/outdoor living during the summertime, to enjoy BBQ`s or just relaxing, even bird watching. Storage/workshop. Bright open kitchen. Close to town, marina and lake for boating, fishing and swimming. Green Valley Lake is a great year around community that is surrounded by national forest that has plenty of hiking trails for those avid hikers or snowshoeing during the winter months. Come and see what this charming little town has to offer you!

18. 2026-03-03
    historical
19. 2025-07-04
    price $329,000

    Show marketing remark (964 chars)

    Price Reduced! Possible Seller Carry. Located in the quaint town of Green Valley Lake, where memories are made all year long. Large level corner lots. Featuring a two bedroom and one bathroom cabin that comes with two additional vacant lots, for a square footage of 9020 feet per county record with easy access during the winter months with 5 car plus parking. Cozy great room with a wood burning stove to snuggle up to during those cold winter nights. Beautiful T & G wood ceilings. Deck off living area for indoor/outdoor living during the summertime, to enjoy BBQ`s or just relaxing, even bird watching. Storage/workshop. Bright open kitchen. Close to town, marina and lake for boating, fishing and swimming. Green Valley Lake is a great year around community that is surrounded by national forest that has plenty of hiking trails for those avid hikers or snowshoeing during the winter months. Come and see what this charming little town has to offer you!

20. 2025-07-04
    price $329,000 964-char remark

    Show marketing remark (964 chars)

    Price Reduced! Possible Seller Carry. Located in the quaint town of Green Valley Lake, where memories are made all year long. Large level corner lots. Featuring a two bedroom and one bathroom cabin that comes with two additional vacant lots, for a square footage of 9020 feet per county record with easy access during the winter months with 5 car plus parking. Cozy great room with a wood burning stove to snuggle up to during those cold winter nights. Beautiful T & G wood ceilings. Deck off living area for indoor/outdoor living during the summertime, to enjoy BBQ`s or just relaxing, even bird watching. Storage/workshop. Bright open kitchen. Close to town, marina and lake for boating, fishing and swimming. Green Valley Lake is a great year around community that is surrounded by national forest that has plenty of hiking trails for those avid hikers or snowshoeing during the winter months. Come and see what this charming little town has to offer you!

21. 2025-02-12
    listed $349,000 Active 964-char remark

    Show marketing remark (964 chars)

    Price Reduced! Possible Seller Carry. Located in the quaint town of Green Valley Lake, where memories are made all year long. Large level corner lots. Featuring a two bedroom and one bathroom cabin that comes with two additional vacant lots, for a square footage of 9020 feet per county record with easy access during the winter months with 5 car plus parking. Cozy great room with a wood burning stove to snuggle up to during those cold winter nights. Beautiful T & G wood ceilings. Deck off living area for indoor/outdoor living during the summertime, to enjoy BBQ`s or just relaxing, even bird watching. Storage/workshop. Bright open kitchen. Close to town, marina and lake for boating, fishing and swimming. Green Valley Lake is a great year around community that is surrounded by national forest that has plenty of hiking trails for those avid hikers or snowshoeing during the winter months. Come and see what this charming little town has to offer you!

22. 2025-02-10
    listed $349,000 Active
23. 2022-11-07
    historical
24. 2022-08-25
    historical
25. 2022-08-25
    historical
26. 2022-05-09
    listed $340,000 Active
27. 2014-12-10
    soldstatus $120,000
28. 2014-12-10
    soldstatus $120,000
29. 2014-12-10
    soldstatus $120,000
30. 2014-08-19
    listed $127,000
31. 2014-08-19
    listed $127,000
32. 2008-08-23
    listed $150,000
33. 2007-11-13
    listed $219,000
34. 1996-01-03
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,127 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$145/yr (+$12/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥83°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,127
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$8,117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,948
• After-tax cash flow: $-785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Running Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #11396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,215
• Population (ZIP): 299

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 20% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Polish 13% Italian 5% Russian 4%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Vietnamese 20% Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.04%
• Current HPI: 369.4917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+370.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Relisted — MRCAOR
• 2026-03-04 Delisted — MRCAOR
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $329,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $329,000 MRCAOR
• 2025-02-12 Listed $349,000 MRCAOR
• 2025-02-10 Listed $349,000 CRMLS
• 2022-11-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-05-09 Listed $340,000 CRMLS
• 2014-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2014-12-10 Sold (MLS) $120,000 CRMLS
• 2014-12-10 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MRCAOR
• 2014-08-19 Listed $127,000 CRMLS
• 2014-08-19 Listed $127,000 MRCAOR
• 2008-08-23 Listed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2007-11-13 Listed $219,000 CRMLS
• 1996-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,127 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.