6912 95th St · Lubbock, TX 79424

$187,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,619 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2009 5,600 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This wonderful family home in the quiet Frenship ISD neighborhood of Quincy Park offers a traditional open layout with a living/kitchen/dining combo, 3 spacious bedrooms with the master being isolated, and a large backyard with a cozy covered patio and plenty of grassy space. Come see this beautiful southwest Lubbock home before it's too late!

Key facts

• 5,600 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2009

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (faces front)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,619
• Exterior features: Private yard; Wood fencing; Other roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-375/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Upland Heights El (math 49% / reading 55%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 840 students, 46% FRL); Frenship Middle (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 833 students, 47% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 712 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,377 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-32,626
• Equity at exit: $27,882

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-32,333
• Equity at exit: $16,168

Cash invested: $52,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79424

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax from tax record: −$374 /mo · $4,488/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,813

Max offer price $181,476

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $22	+0% $-31	+5% $-84	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-101	+0% $-31	+5% $39	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $16	base $-31	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,750
• Closing costs: $5,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9309 Quitman Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1577	$1,575	$1.00	23d	1	0.07mi
9305 Quitman Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,650	$1.06	23d	1	0.08mi
9304 Remington Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1649	$1,850	$1.12	45d	1	0.11mi
9106 Quincy Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$1,750	$1.10	15d	1	0.17mi
9104 Quincy Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1562	$1,750	$1.12	23d	1	0.18mi
9706 Ross Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,895	$1.08	45d	1	0.30mi
6906 90th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2044	$2,695	$1.32	15d	1	0.30mi
9707 Saratoga Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,499	$1.11	23d	1	0.31mi
7051 96th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	15d	1	0.35mi
9710 Saratoga Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	23d	1	0.35mi
9705 Trenton Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,499	$1.11	23d	1	0.36mi
9709 Trenton Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,499	$1.11	45d	1	0.36mi
9711 Trenton Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,499	$1.18	45d	1	0.37mi
9702 Trenton Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,499	$1.11	45d	1	0.38mi
9712 Trenton Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,499	$1.11	23d	1	0.39mi
6717 89th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1991	$1,725	$0.87	23d	1	0.39mi
9716 Trenton Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,499	$1.15	45d	1	0.40mi
6553 89th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,575	$1.01	23d	1	0.47mi
6550 85th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1711	$1,700	$0.99	23d	1	0.69mi
9616 Kline Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2198	$2,150	$0.98	46d	1	0.79mi
7350 100th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	45d	1	0.79mi
10903 Norwich Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1613	$2,099	$1.30	15d	2	0.92mi
7424 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,750	$1.10	45d	1	0.94mi
7440 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,600	$1.01	15d	1	1.01mi
7456 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,700	$1.16	45d	1	1.06mi
7449 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,625	$1.10	23d	1	1.06mi
7510 102nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,600	$1.06	45d	1	1.10mi
7729 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,300	$1.16	15d	1	1.28mi
7729 92nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	1810	$2,495	$1.38	23d	1	1.28mi
7732 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	23d	1	1.29mi
7731 97th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	23d	1	1.29mi
7805 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,150	$1.14	45d	1	1.36mi
9806 Genoa Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,050	$1.16	45d	1	1.37mi
7811 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,195	$1.13	23d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $187,000 Active
2. 2018-08-02
   soldstatus
3. 2018-08-01
   soldstatus 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   This wonderful family home in the quiet Frenship ISD neighborhood of Quincy Park offers a traditional open layout with a living/kitchen/dining combo, 3 spacious bedrooms with the master being isolated, and a large backyard with a cozy covered patio and plenty of grassy space. Come see this beautiful southwest Lubbock home before it's too late!

4. 2018-06-13
   listed $157,500 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   This wonderful family home in the quiet Frenship ISD neighborhood of Quincy Park offers a traditional open layout with a living/kitchen/dining combo, 3 spacious bedrooms with the master being isolated, and a large backyard with a cozy covered patio and plenty of grassy space. Come see this beautiful southwest Lubbock home before it's too late!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,488 · $374/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,488 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,475
• − Property taxes: −$4,488
• − Insurance: −$935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$5,440
• Taxable loss: −$3,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$830
• After-tax cash flow: $455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,478
• Household income: $97,231
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1958.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.64%
• Current HPI: 213.2155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $187,000 LARMLS
• 2018-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-01 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2018-06-13 Listed $157,500 LARMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,488 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.