867 Aurora Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$169,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,869 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1888 3,963 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Investor special! Duplex in St. Paul with significant upside for the right buyer. This up-and-down two-unit property at 867 Aurora Ave offers strong rental potential once renovated. Property requires repairs throughout, including mechanical, interior, and exterior updates. Ideal opportunity for experienced investors, contractors, or rehab buyers looking to add value through a full renovation. Convenient location near transit, schools, and major city amenities. Home is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Exterior updates
• Interior updates
• Duplex

Tags

• DUPLEX
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL
• REQUIRES REPAIRS
• INTERIOR UPDATES
• EXTERIOR UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Owner-occupied: No; Property used as residential income (duplex)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas service; Electric with circuit breakers (Xcel Energy)
• Home design: Residential income property; Duplex up-and-down; Two stories; Main entry level and living area spread across two levels
• Construction: Stone foundation; Roof replaced within last 8 years; Foundation area noted
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Wood fencing; City street frontage (40 x 100 lot)

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes a kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Total of 3 bedrooms; Duplex with one 1-bedroom unit and one 2-bedroom unit
• Bathrooms: Total of 2 bathrooms (each unit has 1 full bathroom)
• Heating & cooling: Boiler heating; No cooling in one unit; cooling not specified for the other
• Interior features: Two-level layout; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $170k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,592/mo this rent would consume 104% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1888 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $169,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1888 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 99.75%
• DSCR: 5.44
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $221,176
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.60×
• Total profit: $504,100
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,592 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,498/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,384
• Net cashflow: $3,954

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,586

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 35%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$6,592
Total (2 units)			$6,592

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
255 Western Ave N Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$3,700	$3.53	2d	23	1.07mi
695 Grand Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$5,795	$5.13	18d	10	1.09mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 490-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $169,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,498 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,498 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $79,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$3,498
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,328
• − Management: −$6,328
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $47,640
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,434
• After-tax cash flow: $36,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,498 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.