15111 Willowwater Dr · Conroe, TX 77316

$262,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,979 sqft · Land · 43 Days on market

Built 2026 $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Chapel Run! The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,979 (unit not shown per instructions)
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Chapel Run HOA with annual fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-family design (2nd-floor primary and multiple second-floor bedrooms; main living on first floor)
• Construction: Built by Lennar (new construction, 2026); Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floor; Includes Dishwasher, Disposal, Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 16x12); Three additional bedrooms on second floor (approx. 12x12, 12x12, 12x10)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Disposal, Microwave; Game room on second floor; Family room on first floor; Dining room on first floor; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry equipment listed

🏗️ New construction. The $262,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,039.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $263k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-766/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gordon-Reed El (586 students, 47% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 34% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,069 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,039
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
523 Dalloway St	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,689 (-15%)	15mo	$238,425	$141	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-54,710
• Equity at exit: $41,606

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-74,042
• Equity at exit: $24,126

Cash invested: $78,131 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,091 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,171

Max offer price $267,769

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $15	+0% $-64	+5% $-143	+10% $-222
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-146	+0% $-64	+5% $19	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $7	base $-64	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,760
• Closing costs: $8,371
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	44d	1	0.07mi
15231 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$1,760	$0.92	21d	1	0.07mi
15242 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1881	$1,780	$0.95	5d	1	0.09mi
15310 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,720	$1.22	2d	1	0.17mi
583 Firemoon St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,650	$1.17	21d	1	0.23mi
425 McCaleb Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,702	$1.84	2d	20	0.45mi
632 Levine Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,275	$1.02	7d	1	0.50mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	44d	1	0.93mi
28752 Aloha Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,986	$1.13	25d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $262,990
3. 2026-04-20
   price $220,990
4. 2026-04-16
   price $224,040
5. 2026-04-14
   price $231,340
6. 2026-04-09
   price $234,990
7. 2026-04-07
   price $200,000
8. 2026-04-03
   price $234,990
9. 2026-03-12
   price $244,340
10. 2026-03-10
    listed $248,540 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,813 · $401/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,830/yr (+$319/mo · 389.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,631
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,007
• − Management: −$2,007
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,117
• Taxable loss: −$5,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,368
• After-tax cash flow: $602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $262,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $220,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $224,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $231,340 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $244,340 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $248,540 HARMLS