1421 S 12th St #210 · Waco, TX 76706

$109,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 832 sqft · Condo · 217 Days on market

Built 1984 Good condition $131/sqft · 20% below area Est $135k · 20% under $155/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Chic, move-in ready 2bed, 2bath condo in the desirable Casablanca community. With a thoughtfully arranged living space, this unit is an ideal fit for a student, first-time buyer, or investor seeking turnkey Waco ownership. Located inside a gated community just minutes from Baylor University, campus life, and downtown, the property pairs privacy and convenience with community amenities, including an on-site pool. Enjoy quick access to dining, entertainment, and major corridors while benefiting from low-maintenance condo living. Schedule a showing today and experience the perfect blend of location and value.

Key facts

• Gated community
• On-site pool
• $155 HOA

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• ON-SITE POOL
• QUICK ACCESS TO DINING
• LOW-MAINTENANCE CONDO LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $109k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($392/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Waco El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 462 students, 96% FRL); Cesar Chavez Middle (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 840 students, 94% FRL); University H S (math 39% / reading 31%, grade F, #954 of 1,632 statewide, top 59%, 1,678 students, 89% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 405 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.29%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,421
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: -19.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1421 S 12th St #211	0.00mi	2/2.0	832 (0%)	3mo	$124,000	$149	98
1358 S 12th St	0.09mi	2/2.0	958 (+15%)	3mo	$156,500	$163	68
1226 Baylor Ave #118	0.09mi	2/2.5	1,024 (+23%)	1mo	$125,000	$122	68
1350 S 12th St	0.11mi	2/2.0	958 (+15%)	3mo	$225,000	$235	68
2005 S 8th St #6	0.50mi	2/2.0	920 (+11%)	2mo	$125,000	$136	57
1927 S 20th St	0.67mi	2/1.5	796 (-4%)	3mo	$199,000	$250	57
1106 S 15th St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	916 (+10%)	4mo	$110,000	$120	56
1925 S 20th St	0.67mi	2/1.5	790 (-5%)	3mo	$199,000	$252	56
1403 Gurley Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0	988 (+19%)	4mo	$70,000	$71	55
330 Austin Ave #310	1.21mi	2/1.0	948 (+14%)	0mo	$425,900	$449	38
1009 Primrose Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0	1,001 (+20%)	4mo	$142,900	$143	36
1213 S 31st St	1.48mi	2/1.0	952 (+14%)	4mo	$125,000	$131	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-16,819
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-16,922
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76706

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 405
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,191 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,150

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $70	+0% $33	+5% $-5	+10% $-43
Rent	-10% $-61	-5% $-14	+0% $33	+5% $80	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $60	base $33	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1421 S 12th St Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$985	$1.06	62d	3	0.02mi
1508 S 13th St Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$895	$1.15	62d	1	0.03mi
1226 Baylor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0–2.5	1024	$1,350	$1.32	70d	2	0.04mi
1226 Baylor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0–2.5	1024	$1,337	$1.31	62d	2	0.04mi
1214 Baylor Ave Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	736	$1,095	$1.49	92d	2	0.04mi
1214 Baylor Ave Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	832	$945	$1.14	62d	2	0.04mi
1214 Baylor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	832	$1,020	$1.23	70d	1	0.04mi
1348 S 12th St Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	958	$1,300	$1.36	70d	1	0.11mi
1120 James Ave Unit Brownstone 205 Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$795	$1.22	70d	1	0.17mi
1300 S 11th St Waco, TX	2.0	2.5	1083	$1,209	$1.12	62d	14	0.19mi
1911 S 8th St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	798	$1,198	$1.50	70d	1	0.47mi
2005 S 8th St Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	685	$1,000	$1.46	62d	2	0.51mi
1918 S 8th St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,200	$1.13	70d	1	0.51mi
600 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0–2.5	1102	$1,496	$1.36	70d	2	0.53mi
1901 Dutton Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	62d	1	0.59mi
715 Cleveland Ave Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	845	$1,436	$1.70	62d	23	0.62mi
1800 S 5th St Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,240	$1.38	70d	1	0.67mi
2100 S 19th St Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	684	$1,300	$1.90	70d	1	0.69mi
412 University St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	864	$1,895	$2.19	70d	1	0.70mi
709 S 6th St Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	655	$925	$1.41	70d	1	0.74mi
410 Daughtrey Ave Waco, TX	1.0	2.0	897	$1,000	$1.11	70d	1	0.76mi
700 S 4th St Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$1,288	$1.45	62d	12	0.94mi
1800 Primrose Dr Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	942	$992	$1.05	62d	33	0.95mi
700 S 24th St Unit 1 Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$1,200	$1.48	70d	1	1.01mi
700 Franklin Ave Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	702	$1,200	$1.71	70d	1	1.05mi
700 Franklin Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	802	$1,500	$1.87	92d	1	1.05mi
2000 S 1st St Waco, TX	2.0–5.0	1.0–3.0	1318	$699	$0.53	62d	19	1.08mi
1726 Austin Ave Unit 210 Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$2,095	$3.17	92d	1	1.10mi
1726 Austin Ave Unit 208 Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	560	$1,895	$3.38	92d	1	1.10mi
66 Daughtrey Ave Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,715	$2.08	62d	1	1.14mi
601 Franklin Ave Apt 6B Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,550	$2.48	62d	1	1.15mi
1923 Austin Ave Apt 7104 Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	785	$1,100	$1.40	92d	1	1.22mi
1923 Austin Ave Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	785	$1,200	$1.53	70d	1	1.22mi
2410 S 2nd St Waco, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–5.5	1552	$1,500	$0.97	70d	4	1.23mi
1625 Columbus Ave Unit A Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$700	$1.27	92d	1	1.27mi
224 Gurley Ln Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	70d	1	1.29mi
2415 S University Parks Dr Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1095	$1,339	$1.22	62d	27	1.33mi
215 Washington Ave Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	919	$1,118	$1.22	70d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail $155/mo · $1,860/yr condo

• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-27
   days on market $109,000 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-07-25
   days on market $109,000 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-07-24
   days on market $109,000 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-07-23
   days on market $109,000 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-07-22
   price $109,000 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-07-22
   days on market $112,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-07-21
   days on market $112,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-07-18
   days on market $112,000 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-07-16
   days on market $112,000 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-07-16
    days on market $112,000 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-07-14
    days on market $112,000 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-07-13
    days on market $112,000 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-07-12
    days on market $112,000 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-07-11
    days on market $112,000 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-07-10
    days on market $112,000 Active 200 DOM
16. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $112,000 Active 199 DOM
17. 2026-07-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 198 DOM
18. 2026-07-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 197 DOM
19. 2026-07-06
    days on market $115,000 Active 196 DOM
20. 2026-07-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 195 DOM
21. 2026-07-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 194 DOM
22. 2026-07-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 193 DOM
23. 2026-07-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 192 DOM
24. 2026-07-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 191 DOM
25. 2026-06-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 190 DOM
26. 2026-06-29
    days on market $115,000 Active 189 DOM
27. 2026-06-28
    days on market $115,000 Active 188 DOM
28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $115,000 Active 187 DOM
29. 2026-06-27
    days on market $115,000 Active 186 DOM
30. 2026-06-25
    days on market $115,000 Active 184 DOM
31. 2026-06-23
    days on market $115,000 Active 182 DOM
32. 2026-06-21
    days on market $115,000 Active 181 DOM
33. 2026-06-18
    days on market $115,000 Active 178 DOM
34. 2026-06-17
    days on market $115,000 Active 177 DOM
35. 2026-06-16
    days on market $115,000 Active 176 DOM
36. 2026-06-15
    days on market $115,000 Active 175 DOM
37. 2026-06-14
    days on market $115,000 Active 173 DOM
38. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $115,000 Active 172 DOM
39. 2026-06-10
    days on market $118,400 Active 170 DOM
40. 2026-06-09
    days on market $118,400 Active 169 DOM
41. 2026-06-08
    days on market $118,400 Active 168 DOM
42. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,400 Active 167 DOM
43. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $118,400 Active 164 DOM
44. 2026-06-03
    days on market $118,900 Active 163 DOM
45. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,900 Active 162 DOM
46. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,900 Active 161 DOM
47. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,900 Active 160 DOM
48. 2026-05-30
    days on market $118,900 Active 159 DOM
49. 2026-05-11
    price $119,900 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Chic, move-in ready 2bed, 2bath condo in the desirable Casablanca community. With a thoughtfully arranged living space, this unit is an ideal fit for a student, first-time buyer, or investor seeking turnkey Waco ownership. Located inside a gated community just minutes from Baylor University, campus life, and downtown, the property pairs privacy and convenience with community amenities, including an on-site pool. Enjoy quick access to dining, entertainment, and major corridors while benefiting from low-maintenance condo living. Schedule a showing today and experience the perfect blend of location and value.

50. 2026-05-09
    status Active 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Chic, move-in ready 2bed, 2bath condo in the desirable Casablanca community. With a thoughtfully arranged living space, this unit is an ideal fit for a student, first-time buyer, or investor seeking turnkey Waco ownership. Located inside a gated community just minutes from Baylor University, campus life, and downtown, the property pairs privacy and convenience with community amenities, including an on-site pool. Enjoy quick access to dining, entertainment, and major corridors while benefiting from low-maintenance condo living. Schedule a showing today and experience the perfect blend of location and value.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,143
• − Management: −$1,143
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable loss: −$1,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$314
• After-tax cash flow: $707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,160–$12,480 screening

This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo in Casablanca community is in good condition with modern appliances and neutral paint. It offers a great location and low-maintenance living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint can make the space feel new and inviting ↑
• Both Replace the old TV stand with a modern one — Modern furniture can enhance the aesthetic and functionality of the living area ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 23/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary South Waco El F TX #4,021/4,322 Nat'l #36,424/41,679 Middle Cesar Chavez Middle F TX #1,428/1,662 Nat'l #11,652/14,009 High University H S F TX #954/1,632 Nat'l #9,567/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 264,191 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,627
• Household income: $41,656
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.31%
• Current HPI: 230.2557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $122,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $123,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $145,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $149,900 NTREIS