2650 W Union Hills Dr #98 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$72,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 151 Days on market

Built 1970 Good condition $50/sqft · 11% above area Est $65k · 11% over ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to his lovely 2-bedroom property! Discover the lovely curb appeal showcasing desert landscape, carport parking, & a cozy side covered patio with delightful citrus tree. Inside, discover the open floor plan, wood & look flooring. The great room enjoys large windows and an inviting gas fireplace. The pristine kitchen features plenty of shaker cabinets, granite counters, center island w/breakfast bar, & a dining room w/sliding doors to the side yard. The main bedroom boasts backyard access & a private bathroom w/vessel sink & a walk-in closet. Do not miss the convenient storage outside.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Desert landscape
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• DESERT LANDSCAPE
• CARPORT PARKING
• COZY SIDE COVERED PATIO
• DELIGHTFUL CITRUS TREE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GAS FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $794 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.24%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,000
• List price: $72,000
• Delta: 10.77%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #114	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$29,000	$20	89
2650 W Union Hills Dr #131	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	8mo	$60,500	$41	88
2650 W Union Hills Dr #100	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$99,000	$69	87
2650 W Union Hills Dr #33	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$55,000	$38	84
2650 W Union Hills Dr #138	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	5mo	$74,000	$48	84
2650 W Union Hills Dr #8	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$65,000	$42	83
2650 W Union Hills Dr #215	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$37,500	$28	81
2650 W Union Hills Dr #43	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$50,000	$37	80
2650 W Union Hills Dr #258	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+3%)	12mo	$80,000	$54	79
2650 W Union Hills Dr #133	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	4mo	$53,000	$42	72
2650 W Union Hills Dr #247	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (-13%)	2mo	$62,000	$50	68
2650 W Union Hills Dr #257	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	9mo	$79,000	$63	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $34,119
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $76,392
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $794

Break-even live

Break-even rent $630

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $843	-5% $819	+0% $794	+5% $769	+10% $744
Rent	-10% $665	-5% $729	+0% $794	+5% $858	+10% $923
Rate	-1.0pp $830	-0.5pp $812	base $794	+0.5pp $775	+1.0pp $756

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,729	$1.74	0d	18	0.43mi
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,498	$1.64	19d	2	0.46mi
18422 N 30th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,275	$1.42	25d	1	0.53mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,655	$1.88	4d	19	0.57mi
18001 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	0.59mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,444	$1.48	3d	80	0.59mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	16d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	9d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,245	$1.25	16d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-117 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	9d	1	0.73mi
2953 W Libby St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,095	$1.28	45d	1	0.74mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #254 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,650	$1.57	45d	1	0.76mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,366	$1.68	0d	63	0.82mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	18d	1	0.83mi
2431 W Shady Glen Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,155	$1.36	9d	1	0.90mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	45d	1	0.91mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,525	$1.72	3d	2	1.06mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,400	$1.58	0d	3	1.06mi
3338 W Tonto Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1206	$1,375	$1.14	9d	1	1.06mi
3250 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,450	$1.32	25d	1	1.09mi
2018 W Meadow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1659	$1,965	$1.18	0d	1	1.12mi
1750 W Union Hills Dr #91 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1680	$1,900	$1.13	6d	1	1.14mi
18435 N 36th Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,400	$1.73	45d	1	1.14mi
20227 N 21st Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,500	$1.17	45d	1	1.14mi
20245 N 32nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,530	$1.83	0d	11	1.16mi
2902 W Irma Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,295	$1.48	45d	1	1.18mi
20808 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,560	$1.62	0d	15	1.20mi
3202 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$1,299	$1.81	0d	32	1.24mi
2109 W Danbury Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1175	$1,695	$1.44	45d	1	1.26mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,199	$1.28	45d	1	1.27mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	4d	1	1.28mi
17216 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,525	$2.06	0d	21	1.29mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	25d	1	1.29mi
17402 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1194	$1,450	$1.21	3d	2	1.30mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Unit C113 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	0d	1	1.35mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	25d	2	1.36mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	14d	2	1.36mi
1708 W Behrend Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,761	$1.33	9d	1	1.36mi
20601 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,100	$1.94	25d	1	1.36mi
3434 W Danbury Dr Unit A114 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $72,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $72,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-01-19
    listed $72,000 Active 623-char remark

    Show marketing remark (623 chars)

    Welcome home to his lovely 2-bedroom property! Discover the lovely curb appeal showcasing desert landscape, carport parking, & a cozy side covered patio with delightful citrus tree. Inside, discover the open floor plan, wood & look flooring. The great room enjoys large windows and an inviting gas fireplace. The pristine kitchen features plenty of shaker cabinets, granite counters, center island w/breakfast bar, & a dining room w/sliding doors to the side yard. The main bedroom boasts backyard access & a private bathroom w/vessel sink & a walk-in closet. Do not miss the convenient storage outside.

17. 2025-12-01
    historical
18. 2025-11-01
    status Active
19. 2025-11-01
    historical
20. 2025-10-16
    price $74,900
21. 2025-06-19
    price $80,000
22. 2025-05-15
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $8,908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,138
• After-tax cash flow: $7,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good curb appeal and an open floor plan with good quality finishes. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Resale paint interior — enhances interior appearance
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Rental HVAC maintenance — improves tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale paint interior — enhances interior appearance ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — improves tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $72,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $74,900 ARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $80,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $85,000 ARMLS