Plan 2335 Plan · Uhland, TX 78640

$254,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,335 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Covered back patio * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Open floor plan * Loft * Kitchen USB charging port * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Walking paths * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to golf courses * Near beautiful lakes

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• Kitchen island
• Gas range

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• GAS RANGE

🏗️ New construction. The $254,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,218.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 577 students, 71% FRL); D J Red Simon Middle (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 733 students, 78% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2089 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,023 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,218
• List price: $254,995
• Delta: -16.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
645 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,290 (-2%)	6mo	$375,990	$164	81
191 Morett Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,294 (-2%)	7mo	$319,990	$139	72
457 Sandringham Loop	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,473 (+6%)	10mo	$319,990	$129	72
154 Sandringham Loop	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,430 (+4%)	11mo	$317,990	$131	70
348 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,042 (-12%)	6mo	$300,990	$147	69
181 Morett Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,032 (-13%)	7mo	$316,990	$156	68
543 Sandringham Loop	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,034 (-13%)	7mo	$295,000	$145	66
440 Sandringham Loop	0.20mi	4/3.5	2,473 (+6%)	13mo	$341,990	$138	66
201 Morett Dr	0.13mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,561 (+10%)	13mo	$376,990	$147	62
637 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.37mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,430 (+4%)	10mo	$410,990	$169	60
221 Morett Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,032 (-13%)	12mo	$351,990	$173	60
425 Frogmore Loop	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,042 (-12%)	10mo	$300,990	$147	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-80,458
• Equity at exit: $45,509

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-126,351
• Equity at exit: $26,390

Cash invested: $85,461 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active
• Months of supply: 66.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $310,495 ($140/sqft)
• Median days on market: 190 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2089
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,180 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,601
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,578/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,670

Max offer price $249,231

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-176	-5% $-281	+0% $-387	+5% $-492	+10% $-598
Rent	-10% $-559	-5% $-473	+0% $-387	+5% $-301	+10% $-215
Rate	-1.0pp $-233	-0.5pp $-309	base $-387	+0.5pp $-466	+1.0pp $-546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,305
• Closing costs: $9,157
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
456 Sandringham Loop Kyle, TX	5.0	2.5	1892	$2,250	$1.19	31d	1	0.17mi
176 Gerasa Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2064	$2,100	$1.02	47d	1	0.19mi
321 Sandringham Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$1,900	$0.77	53d	1	0.24mi
191 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$1,899	$0.92	93d	1	0.38mi
235 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2034	$1,995	$0.98	21d	1	0.39mi
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	34d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $254,995 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $254,995 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $254,995 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $254,995 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $254,995 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $254,995 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $254,995 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $254,995 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   pricedays on market $254,995 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $271,995 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $271,995 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $271,995 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $271,995 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $271,995 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $271,995 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $271,995 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $271,995 Active 182 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $271,995 Active 181 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $271,995 Active 180 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $271,995 Active 179 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $271,995 Active 178 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $271,995 Active 177 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $271,995 Active 176 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $271,995 Active 175 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $271,995 Active 173 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $271,995 Active 172 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $271,995 Active 171 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $271,995 Active 169 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $271,995 Active 168 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $271,995 Active 167 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $271,995 Active 166 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $271,995 Active 165 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $271,995 Active 164 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $271,995 Active 163 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $275,995 Active 162 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $279,995 Active 160 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $279,995 Active 158 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $279,995 Active 157 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $279,995 Active 154 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $279,995 Active 153 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $279,995 Active 152 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $279,995 Active 151 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $279,995 Active 149 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,995 Active 145 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,995 Active 144 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,995 Active 143 DOM
47. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,995 Active 140 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,995 Active 139 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,995 Active 138 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,995 Active 137 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,097
• − Property taxes: −$4,578
• − Insurance: −$1,526
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,093
• − Management: −$2,093
• − Depreciation: −$8,879
• Taxable loss: −$10,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,425
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,675–$35,025 screening

This home is in good condition with no visible damage and is located in a family-friendly area with playgrounds, walking paths, and beautiful lakes nearby. It has a good foundation and structure, and the interior and exterior appear to be in good condition. The home has a smart thermostat, gas range, and kitchen USB charging port, which can increase both resale and rental value. The home is move-in ready and has a good location with nearby amenities and outdoor recreation opportunities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Playground — Adding a playground can increase both resale and rental value by attracting families. ↑
• Both Walking paths — Adding walking paths can increase both resale and rental value by attracting families and providing outdoor recreation opportunities. ↑
• Both Outdoor recreation nearby — Providing nearby outdoor recreation can increase both resale and rental value by attracting families and providing outdoor recreation opportunities. ↑
• Both Near beautiful lakes — Being near beautiful lakes can increase both resale and rental value by providing scenic views and outdoor recreation opportunities. ↑
• Both Smart thermostat — Installing a smart thermostat can increase both resale and rental value by providing energy efficiency and convenience. ↑
• Both Gas range — Upgrading to a gas range can increase both resale and rental value by providing a high-end appliance that is in high demand. ↑
• Both Kitchen USB charging port — Adding a USB charging port in the kitchen can increase both resale and rental value by providing convenience for modern devices. ↑
• Both Dedicated laundry room — Creating a dedicated laundry room can increase both resale and rental value by providing a convenient and private space for laundry tasks. ↑
• Both Covered back patio — Adding a covered back patio can increase both resale and rental value by providing an outdoor living space for entertaining and relaxation. ↑
• Both Granite kitchen countertops — Upgrading to granite countertops can increase both resale and rental value by providing a high-end and durable surface for the kitchen. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hemphill El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle D J Red Simon Middle F TX #1,466/1,662 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Lehman H S F TX #1,234/1,632 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $279,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $283,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $288,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Listed $298,995 Zillow