421 Nesbit Ln · Rochester Hills, MI 48309

$340,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,999 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1961 0.52 ac lot Est $430k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offering approximately 2,000 sq ft of living space. This property features a functional layout with generously sized rooms and great natural light throughout. The full, unfinished basement provides excellent potential for additional living space, storage, or future value-add opportunities. Enjoy the convenience of a 2-car attached garage and a large deck off the back - perfect for outdoor entertaining or relaxing. Ideal for both homeowners and investors looking for a solid property with room to grow. Easy online bidding process on the HUD website. How It Works: Bidding Opens 4/9/2026. Home Owner-Occupants, HUD-approved nonprofits, and government entities can bid only for the first 15 days. Days 1–10: HUD collects bids but doesn't look at them yet (they are sealed until the deadline) Day 11–15: Bids are opened and reviewed daily. After Day 15: If the home doesn't sell, it opens up to everyone - including investors. All bids must be submitted online through a HUD-registered broker. Equal Housing Opportunity. Insurable (UI). Case #: 2-6-4-2-4-1-3-7-9

Key facts

• Large deck
• Great natural light
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• GREAT NATURAL LIGHT
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• LARGE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.9% in Rochester Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#127 in MI, #3,163 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rochester Community School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #21 of 540 in MI (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $325,202 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.66%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $429,785
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
242 Nesbit Ln	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,057 (+3%)	14mo	$410,000	$199	71
184 Shagbark Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,008 (+0%)	4mo	$340,000	$169	69
1751 Ansal Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,785 (-11%)	10mo	$437,000	$245	69
1430 Stockport Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,878 (-6%)	2mo	$329,000	$175	66
2036 Belle Vernon Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (-4%)	11mo	$475,000	$249	61
2063 Avoncrest Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5	2,143 (+7%)	9mo	$572,500	$267	61
1726 Black Maple Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	2,244 (+12%)	10mo	$540,000	$241	56
758 Lake Forest Rd	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,183 (+9%)	6mo	$470,000	$215	55
483 Rochdale Dr S	0.52mi	3/1.5	2,273 (+14%)	10mo	$375,000	$165	44
625 Ten Point Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,206 (+10%)	11mo	$460,000	$209	44
166 Arizona Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,887 (-6%)	15mo	$330,000	$175	44
277 Grosse Pines Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,233 (+12%)	9mo	$499,995	$224	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-31,567
• Equity at exit: $50,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,687
• Equity at exit: $29,397

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48309

• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,292/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$683
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,784

Max offer price $340,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $563	-5% $466	+0% $370	+5% $274	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $242	+0% $370	+5% $499	+10% $627
Rate	-1.0pp $541	-0.5pp $457	base $370	+0.5pp $282	+1.0pp $192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
295 Nesbit Ln Rochester Hills, MI	3.0	3.0	1601	$3,000	$1.87	0d	1	0.13mi
1467 Rochdale Pond Ct Rochester Hills, MI	4.0	3.0	2510	$4,375	$1.74	25d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 1150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1150 chars)

   Spacious, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offering approximately 2,000 sq ft of living space. This property features a functional layout with generously sized rooms and great natural light throughout. The full, unfinished basement provides excellent potential for additional living space, storage, or future value-add opportunities. Enjoy the convenience of a 2-car attached garage and a large deck off the back - perfect for outdoor entertaining or relaxing. Ideal for both homeowners and investors looking for a solid property with room to grow. Easy online bidding process on the HUD website. How It Works: Bidding Opens 4/9/2026. Home Owner-Occupants, HUD-approved nonprofits, and government entities can bid only for the first 15 days. Days 1–10: HUD collects bids but doesn't look at them yet (they are sealed until the deadline) Day 11–15: Bids are opened and reviewed daily. After Day 15: If the home doesn't sell, it opens up to everyone - including investors. All bids must be submitted online through a HUD-registered broker. Equal Housing Opportunity. Insurable (UI). Case #: 2-6-4-2-4-1-3-7-9

2. 2026-04-23
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1150 chars)

   Spacious, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offering approximately 2,000 sq ft of living space. This property features a functional layout with generously sized rooms and great natural light throughout. The full, unfinished basement provides excellent potential for additional living space, storage, or future value-add opportunities. Enjoy the convenience of a 2-car attached garage and a large deck off the back - perfect for outdoor entertaining or relaxing. Ideal for both homeowners and investors looking for a solid property with room to grow. Easy online bidding process on the HUD website. How It Works: Bidding Opens 4/9/2026. Home Owner-Occupants, HUD-approved nonprofits, and government entities can bid only for the first 15 days. Days 1–10: HUD collects bids but doesn't look at them yet (they are sealed until the deadline) Day 11–15: Bids are opened and reviewed daily. After Day 15: If the home doesn't sell, it opens up to everyone - including investors. All bids must be submitted online through a HUD-registered broker. Equal Housing Opportunity. Insurable (UI). Case #: 2-6-4-2-4-1-3-7-9

3. 2026-04-08
   listed $340,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (1150 chars)

   Spacious, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offering approximately 2,000 sq ft of living space. This property features a functional layout with generously sized rooms and great natural light throughout. The full, unfinished basement provides excellent potential for additional living space, storage, or future value-add opportunities. Enjoy the convenience of a 2-car attached garage and a large deck off the back - perfect for outdoor entertaining or relaxing. Ideal for both homeowners and investors looking for a solid property with room to grow. Easy online bidding process on the HUD website. How It Works: Bidding Opens 4/9/2026. Home Owner-Occupants, HUD-approved nonprofits, and government entities can bid only for the first 15 days. Days 1–10: HUD collects bids but doesn't look at them yet (they are sealed until the deadline) Day 11–15: Bids are opened and reviewed daily. After Day 15: If the home doesn't sell, it opens up to everyone - including investors. All bids must be submitted online through a HUD-registered broker. Equal Housing Opportunity. Insurable (UI). Case #: 2-6-4-2-4-1-3-7-9

4. 2026-04-08
   listed $340,000 Active 1150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1150 chars)

   Spacious, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offering approximately 2,000 sq ft of living space. This property features a functional layout with generously sized rooms and great natural light throughout. The full, unfinished basement provides excellent potential for additional living space, storage, or future value-add opportunities. Enjoy the convenience of a 2-car attached garage and a large deck off the back - perfect for outdoor entertaining or relaxing. Ideal for both homeowners and investors looking for a solid property with room to grow. Easy online bidding process on the HUD website. How It Works: Bidding Opens 4/9/2026. Home Owner-Occupants, HUD-approved nonprofits, and government entities can bid only for the first 15 days. Days 1–10: HUD collects bids but doesn't look at them yet (they are sealed until the deadline) Day 11–15: Bids are opened and reviewed daily. After Day 15: If the home doesn't sell, it opens up to everyone - including investors. All bids must be submitted online through a HUD-registered broker. Equal Housing Opportunity. Insurable (UI). Case #: 2-6-4-2-4-1-3-7-9

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,292 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,264 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: +$972/yr (+$81/mo · 29.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$3,292
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,122
• − Management: −$3,122
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$1,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$276
• After-tax cash flow: $4,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2629940
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $89,242
• Composite: 58.53/100
• National rank: #994
• State rank: #21 of 540 in MI

Livability — Rochester Hills

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #3163

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester Hills, MI
• City population: 44,714
• Population (ZIP): 30,254

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 12% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.99%
• Current HPI: 201.9197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-08 Listed $340,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-08 Listed $340,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,292 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.