7 Corwin Ln · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$999,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,877 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1999 0.46 ac lot $258/sqft · 64% below area Est $956k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Steps to Tiana Bay where you can launch your kayak & paddleboard as well as walk to the Private Beach for relaxation. Enjoy the waterviews of Tiana Bay form the deck which overlooks the Manicured Grounds with Sprinkler System. Built for scenic enjoyment with waterviews form the Kitchen with Dining area Cathedral Ceiling and Waterview's from the Primary Bedroom that includes a Full Bathroom and Walk in Closet. There are 2 Guest Bedrooms, Main Bathroom, Living Room with Fireplace and Cathedral Ceiling, Full Basement, which is Partially Finished, Laundry and 1 Car Garage. Plenty of Parking for Guests with the Circular Stone Driveway with Belgium Block Border. There is also a Stone Patio Area under the Deck. The Roof is approximately 4 Years Old, and the Oil Tank has been replaced.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $999k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($32k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $999k).
• Recommended offer: $939k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $11,473/mo this rent would consume 103% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $280k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($939k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $939,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.57%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $955,853
• List price: $999,000
• Delta: 4.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Wilson Ave	0.28mi	5/5.0	4,000 (+3%)	23mo	$2,850,000	$713	51
106 E Tiana Rd	0.24mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,314 (-14%)	3mo	$2,500,000	$754	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $70,667
• Equity at exit: $148,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $558,422
• Equity at exit: $86,375

Cash invested: $279,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,239
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,956/yr
• Insurance: −$416
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,409
• Net cashflow: $2,702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,053

Max offer price $999,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $249,750
• Closing costs: $29,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Hyler Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2808	$18,000	$6.41	43d	1	0.56mi
5 Mill Race Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	3000	$15,000	$5.00	43d	1	0.85mi
58 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	2700	$17,000	$6.30	24d	1	1.09mi
16 Gateway Ct Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	4.0	3242	$25,000	$7.71	22d	1	1.35mi
26 Squires Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.5	2950	$7,000	$2.37	43d	1	1.43mi
126 Malloy Dr East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3550	$45,000	$12.68	22d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $999,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $999,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $999,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $999,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $999,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $999,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $999,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $999,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $999,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $999,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $999,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $999,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $999,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $999,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $999,000 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Steps to Tiana Bay where you can launch your kayak & paddleboard as well as walk to the Private Beach for relaxation. Enjoy the waterviews of Tiana Bay form the deck which overlooks the Manicured Grounds with Sprinkler System. Built for scenic enjoyment with waterviews form the Kitchen with Dining area Cathedral Ceiling and Waterview's from the Primary Bedroom that includes a Full Bathroom and Walk in Closet. There are 2 Guest Bedrooms, Main Bathroom, Living Room with Fireplace and Cathedral Ceiling, Full Basement, which is Partially Finished, Laundry and 1 Car Garage. Plenty of Parking for Guests with the Circular Stone Driveway with Belgium Block Border. There is also a Stone Patio Area under the Deck. The Roof is approximately 4 Years Old, and the Oil Tank has been replaced.

16. 2026-04-01
    listed $1,050,000 Active 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Steps to Tiana Bay where you can launch your kayak & paddleboard as well as walk to the Private Beach for relaxation. Enjoy the waterviews of Tiana Bay form the deck which overlooks the Manicured Grounds with Sprinkler System. Built for scenic enjoyment with waterviews form the Kitchen with Dining area Cathedral Ceiling and Waterview's from the Primary Bedroom that includes a Full Bathroom and Walk in Closet. There are 2 Guest Bedrooms, Main Bathroom, Living Room with Fireplace and Cathedral Ceiling, Full Basement, which is Partially Finished, Laundry and 1 Car Garage. Plenty of Parking for Guests with the Circular Stone Driveway with Belgium Block Border. There is also a Stone Patio Area under the Deck. The Roof is approximately 4 Years Old, and the Oil Tank has been replaced.

17. 2026-03-27
    historical $1,050,000 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Steps to Tiana Bay where you can launch your kayak & paddleboard as well as walk to the Private Beach for relaxation. Enjoy the waterviews of Tiana Bay form the deck which overlooks the Manicured Grounds with Sprinkler System. Built for scenic enjoyment with waterviews form the Kitchen with Dining area Cathedral Ceiling and Waterview's from the Primary Bedroom that includes a Full Bathroom and Walk in Closet. There are 2 Guest Bedrooms, Main Bathroom, Living Room with Fireplace and Cathedral Ceiling, Full Basement, which is Partially Finished, Laundry and 1 Car Garage. Plenty of Parking for Guests with the Circular Stone Driveway with Belgium Block Border. There is also a Stone Patio Area under the Deck. The Roof is approximately 4 Years Old, and the Oil Tank has been replaced.

18. 2025-09-01
    listed $1,200,000 Active
19. 2025-08-27
    historical
20. 2022-11-15
    soldstatus $2,560,000
21. 2020-07-24
    soldstatus $237,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,956 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,920 · $827/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,963/yr (+$580/mo · 235.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $137,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,960
• − Property taxes: −$2,956
• − Insurance: −$10,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,014
• − Management: −$11,014
• − Depreciation: −$29,062
• Taxable income: $17,150
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,116
• After-tax cash flow: $28,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+320.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $1,050,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Coming Soon $1,050,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-01 Listed $1,200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $2,560,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $237,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,956 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.