158 Lear Ln · Pearland, TX 77581

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Manufactured · 29 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2025 Good condition $87/sqft · 33% below area Est $150k · 33% under $800/mo HOA · 54% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.8

Listing remarks

Discover this pristine, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home ideally situated in a peaceful, gated community. Newly built in 2025, this beautifully maintained property combines smart design, thoughtful upgrades, and terrific community amenities — making it the perfect place to call home. * Land is leased for $805/month * Includes water, trash, sewer, and access to community amenities: Pool, clubhouse, gym, basketball courts, and computer lounge.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Clubhouse
• Community amenities

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• GYM
• BASKETBALL COURTS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $100,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$150,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $55k (45.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (45.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rustic Oak El (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 674 students, 31% FRL); Pearland J H East (math 61% / reading 62%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 848 students, 34% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 54% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,556 (45.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.46%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -33.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17807 County Rd 127	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,147 (-0%)	5mo	$335,000	$292	73
102 Cheyenne Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+15%)	9mo	$295,000	$223	57
1304 Chelsea Ln	1.50mi	3/2.0	1,180 (+3%)	5mo	$235,000	$199	56
511 Bellmar Ln	1.48mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-3%)	6mo	$258,000	$231	55
415 Bellmar Ln	1.49mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-11%)	5mo	$224,900	$220	42
514 Bellmar Ln	1.44mi	3/2.0	1,009 (-12%)	6mo	$213,000	$211	39
210 Brigadoon Ln	1.47mi	3/1.5	1,304 (+13%)	4mo	$229,900	$176	38
806 Stadium Cir	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,261 (+10%)	16mo	$234,900	$186	35
805 E Stadium Ct	1.42mi	3/2.0	1,282 (+12%)	13mo	$259,900	$203	35
806 Mary Ann Dr	1.42mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+13%)	23mo	$240,000	$184	23
—	1.15mi	3/2.5	1,400 (+22%)	20mo	$347,000	$248	21
6623 Scott Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,348 (+17%)	23mo	$220,000	$163	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-35,782
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.97×
• Total profit: $-55,195
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active
• Median asking: $110,400 ($96/sqft)
• Median days on market: 426 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +36.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77581

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$800
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $54,556

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-245	-5% $-280	+0% $-314	+5% $-349	+10% $-383
Rent	-10% $-432	-5% $-373	+0% $-314	+5% $-255	+10% $-196
Rate	-1.0pp $-264	-0.5pp $-289	base $-314	+0.5pp $-340	+1.0pp $-366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
122 Mooney Rd Unit 122MOO Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,649	$1.36	20d	1	0.12mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Disclosures: First right of refusal, seller disclosure
• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Association: Land LLCAssociation is gatedMonthly association fee of $800Association fee includes clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carportCarport for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2025
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,150Total building area approximately 1,150
• Exterior features: Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first level (11 x 10)Bedroom on the second level (5 x 6)Bedroom on the third level (7 x 4)Total of 3 rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Separate shower and tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $800/mo · $9,600/yr

• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $100,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-05-11
   listed $120,000 Active 554-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − HOA: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$5,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,222
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,750–$17,250 screening

This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is in excellent condition with modern updates and a peaceful gated community. It offers a great investment opportunity with potential for further value enhancement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace the shower curtain — A new shower curtain can improve the bathroom's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and add value to the property. ↑
• Both Upgrade the flooring — Upgrading the flooring can improve the home's aesthetic and increase its value. ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rustic Oak El C TX #587/4,322 Nat'l #9,513/41,679 Middle Pearland J H East B+ TX #141/1,662 Nat'l #1,620/14,009 High Pearland H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,332
• Household income: $111,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.56%
• Current HPI: 244.7942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Disclosures: First right of refusal, seller disclosure
• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Association: Land LLCAssociation is gatedMonthly association fee of $800Association fee includes clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carportCarport for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2025
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,150Total building area approximately 1,150
• Exterior features: Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first level (11 x 10)Bedroom on the second level (5 x 6)Bedroom on the third level (7 x 4)Total of 3 rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Separate shower and tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $120,000 HARMLS