460 Rosetta Dr · Forestdale, AL 35214

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1961 0.54 ac lot Est $180k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The house is being sold as is. Very nice home with 3 bedrooms & 2 baths, eat in kitchen and great room. Full basement with drive all the way around the house. Also a carport. The price reflects the foundation issues.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1961

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 6.5% in Forestdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#367 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Minor Community School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #568 of 627 statewide, top 94%, 409 students, 84% FRL); Minor High School (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #275 of 305 statewide, top 90%, 915 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 49% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 116 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $110k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.38%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,224
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
401 Rosetta Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-6%)	13mo	$190,000	$143	74
1939 Dunbar Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-11%)	9mo	$179,900	$144	64
2352 Pershing Place Loop	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+5%)	2mo	$264,900	$179	58
1920 Dunbar Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,536 (+9%)	24mo	$197,000	$128	55
2068 Sunrise Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,575 (+12%)	17mo	$144,000	$91	55
249 Cimmaron Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+9%)	20mo	$155,000	$101	53
1808 Pritchett St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-11%)	11mo	$135,000	$108	48
2021 Hanchey Rd	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,566 (+11%)	8mo	$160,000	$102	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,729
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $21,076
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35214

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,307 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $493/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $840

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
328 Cimmaron Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1472	$1,100	$0.75	44d	1	0.28mi
308 Cimmaron Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,250	$0.85	44d	1	0.34mi
905 Lynndale Ln Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,550	$0.95	2d	1	1.22mi
656 Kenwood Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1252	$1,175	$0.94	16d	1	1.23mi
1344 Pratt Hwy Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	936	$980	$1.05	44d	1	1.29mi
1712 Riderwood Trl Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	16d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-07
   listed $110,000 Active
3. 1993-09-10
   soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $493 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $493 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$493
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $2,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$665
• After-tax cash flow: $3,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Forestdale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #21236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forestdale, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 17,027
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 17,027
• Household income: $56,383
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 578.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% White 18% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.48%
• Current HPI: 218.5233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+64.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $110,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1993-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $493 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.