602 Iron Hill Ln · Josephine, TX 75189

$237,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,318 sqft lot $164/sqft · 9% below area Est $262k · 9% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You will fall in love with this beauty— where comfort, style, and small-town charm come together! This meticulously maintained home offers a well planned layout with a spacious living area, inviting natural light, and updates throughout. Step inside to find an open-concept living room that flows seamlessly into a well-appointed kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and a large island, perfect for everyday dining or entertaining. Split bedrooms offer privacy, while the primary suite is tucked away providing an ideal retreat. Enjoy two additional bedrooms—ideal for guests, a home office, gym, or growing needs. Step outside to enjoy the HUGE backyard- perfect for entertaining, gardening, or creating your dream outdoor living space. Residents of Magnolia Pointe enjoy wonderful neighborhood amenities including a community park, walking trails, ponds, playground and pool- making it easy to stay active, social, and connected. Conveniently located with easy access to nearby schools, shopping and commuting. This move-in ready home offers the ideal combination of comfort, lifestyle, and value. Don't miss your opportunity to own an 'almost new' home in one of Josephine's growing communities!

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Large island
• Split bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND
• SPLIT BEDROOMS
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1288 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,217 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.60%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,546
• List price: $237,500
• Delta: -9.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
611 Chuck Wagon Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+0%)	5mo	$220,000	$152	91
412 Wrangler Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+0%)	2mo	$237,000	$163	88
302 Wagon Wheel Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+0%)	4mo	$254,000	$175	79
2110 Bailer Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+4%)	1mo	$239,990	$159	75
1007 Stockyard St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	2mo	$240,000	$166	70
516 Wrangler Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+12%)	6mo	$250,000	$154	69
803 Hay Loft Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,327 (-8%)	5mo	$240,000	$181	64
1310 Emi Kate Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,297 (-10%)	1mo	$245,000	$189	64
504 Patina St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+6%)	4mo	$239,990	$157	62
505 Cistern Way	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+12%)	6mo	$250,000	$154	62
803 Trough	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,259 (-13%)	6mo	$213,000	$169	59
208 Cultivator Ct	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,537 (+6%)	6mo	$239,900	$156	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-57,277
• Equity at exit: $35,412

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-89,682
• Equity at exit: $20,535

Cash invested: $66,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1288
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,245
• Tax from tax record: −$501 /mo · $6,012/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,387

Max offer price $202,217

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-133	+0% $-200	+5% $-267	+10% $-334
Rent	-10% $-368	-5% $-284	+0% $-200	+5% $-115	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-80	-0.5pp $-139	base $-200	+0.5pp $-261	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,375
• Closing costs: $7,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1503 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	44d	1	0.21mi
1910 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,995	$1.25	25d	1	0.28mi
503 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,795	$1.39	2d	1	0.30mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	25d	1	0.31mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	44d	1	0.31mi
2008 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,975	$1.31	19d	1	0.32mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	44d	1	0.41mi
916 Sunrise Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,900	$1.20	19d	1	0.53mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	44d	1	0.67mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	13d	1	0.70mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	5d	1	0.92mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	8d	1	0.93mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	0d	1	0.93mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	2d	1	0.95mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	44d	1	0.97mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	25d	1	1.01mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	16d	1	1.24mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	7d	1	1.24mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	1.34mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	11d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,500 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $237,500 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    price $240,000 1240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1240 chars)

    You will fall in love with this beauty— where comfort, style, and small-town charm come together! This meticulously maintained home offers a well planned layout with a spacious living area, inviting natural light, and updates throughout. Step inside to find an open-concept living room that flows seamlessly into a well-appointed kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and a large island, perfect for everyday dining or entertaining. Split bedrooms offer privacy, while the primary suite is tucked away providing an ideal retreat. Enjoy two additional bedrooms—ideal for guests, a home office, gym, or growing needs. Step outside to enjoy the HUGE backyard- perfect for entertaining, gardening, or creating your dream outdoor living space. Residents of Magnolia Pointe enjoy wonderful neighborhood amenities including a community park, walking trails, ponds, playground and pool- making it easy to stay active, social, and connected. Conveniently located with easy access to nearby schools, shopping and commuting. This move-in ready home offers the ideal combination of comfort, lifestyle, and value. Don't miss your opportunity to own an 'almost new' home in one of Josephine's growing communities!

17. 2026-03-20
    listed $247,000 Active 1240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1240 chars)

    You will fall in love with this beauty— where comfort, style, and small-town charm come together! This meticulously maintained home offers a well planned layout with a spacious living area, inviting natural light, and updates throughout. Step inside to find an open-concept living room that flows seamlessly into a well-appointed kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and a large island, perfect for everyday dining or entertaining. Split bedrooms offer privacy, while the primary suite is tucked away providing an ideal retreat. Enjoy two additional bedrooms—ideal for guests, a home office, gym, or growing needs. Step outside to enjoy the HUGE backyard- perfect for entertaining, gardening, or creating your dream outdoor living space. Residents of Magnolia Pointe enjoy wonderful neighborhood amenities including a community park, walking trails, ponds, playground and pool- making it easy to stay active, social, and connected. Conveniently located with easy access to nearby schools, shopping and commuting. This move-in ready home offers the ideal combination of comfort, lifestyle, and value. Don't miss your opportunity to own an 'almost new' home in one of Josephine's growing communities!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,012 · $501/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,012 · $501/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,304
• − Property taxes: −$6,012
• − Insurance: −$1,188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,048
• − Management: −$2,048
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$6,909
• Taxable loss: −$6,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,532
• After-tax cash flow: $-865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home offers a spacious layout with modern updates and a good condition score, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Replace air filter — Improves air quality and tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace air filter — Improves air quality and tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockwall County · 132,930 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 569.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $247,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+81.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,012 · -10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.