138 Ward Creek Rd · Willapa, WA 98577

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1960 3.00 ac lot $62/sqft · 58% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away at the very end of a quiet dead-end road, this rare 3+ acre property offers a level of privacy and natural beauty that’s becoming nearly impossible to find. Surrounded by mature trees and the peaceful sounds of nature, this setting feels like your own private retreat—yet still within easy reach of town. A year-round creek winds through the property, creating a truly special waterfront feature that transforms this land into your own personal park. Imagine walking your property lines along the water, setting up a picnic under the trees, or simply enjoying the calm, quiet atmosphere that only a setting like this can provide. The expansive acreage offers endless potentia

Key facts

• Private parcel
• Spring water source
• Quiet dead-end road

Tags

• PRIVATE PARCEL
• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD
• PRIVATE SEPTIC SYSTEM
• SPRING WATER SOURCE
• AMPLE SPACE FOR EXPANSION
• PEACEFUL SECLUDED SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#476 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, employment D.
• Willapa Valley School District (rural): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #122 of 291 in WA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $66k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.39%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,257
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -58.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $9,546
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $41,265
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98577

• Home prices YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,116/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-01-16
    listed $99,000 Active
17. 2005-06-23
    soldstatus $66,255

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 40% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,116
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $3,427
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$822
• After-tax cash flow: $3,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willapa Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 5309870
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,545
• Composite: 46.89/100
• National rank: #5182
• State rank: #122 of 291 in WA

Livability — Willapa

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #19741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,458

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.88%
• Current HPI: 271.0583
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+49.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $99,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $66,255 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,116 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.