567 Silver Leaf Dr · Kelly Ridge, CA 95966

$214,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 408 Days on market

Built 1977 6,534 sqft lot Est $175k · 22% over $3/mo HOA ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICED TO SELL AT $ 214,000!! GREAT REMODELED WITH NEW PAINT, FLOORING, ROOF & APPLIANCES. This is turn key and ready for your occupancy! 2 Bedroom and 2 Bath with huge covered deck. Large living room with wood stove and lots of window exposure for good lighting. Dining area is roomy and is located off a great kitchen. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances including glass top range, microwave, refrigerator, and stainless sink. Lots of cabinets for excellent storage, butcher block counter tops and large pantry area. Hall Bathroom has shower/tub combination and nice vanity. The hall has a good size linen closet. Guest bedroom is ample size with nice closet. The primary bedroom is good

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Remodeled
• Wood stove

Tags

• REMODELED
• COVERED DECK
• WOOD STOVE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTER TOPS
• LARGE PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RT1
• HOA & community: Part of Kelly Ridge Estates Owners Association; Association fee $30 annually; Community features include watersports, hiking, fishing, foothills and lake access; Association offers other amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Attached carport; RV access/parking; Driveway
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Electricity connected (electricity on bond); 220V in kitchen; 220V in laundry; Telephone in street; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Entry on one level
• Construction: Turnkey condition; No accessory dwelling unit
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Shed; Chain link fence; On golf course; Has view; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Range/stove hood; Electric range; Electric oven; Water heater unit; Dining ell
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main floor); Main floor bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Separate tub and shower; Shower in tub; Bathtub; Shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Pantry; Formica counters; One-level living; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Individual laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($502/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Kelly Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#765 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 408 days — a 12% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,249 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 408 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Coho Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	0mo	$219,900	$164	80
422 Lodgeview Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$105,000	$78	78
12 Hanging Tree Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	4mo	$267,000	$199	78
8 La Foret Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$183,000	$127	74
5341 Treasure Hl	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$250,000	$174	72
71 Greenbrier Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$157,000	$126	72
18 Oak Hl	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$205,000	$142	70
7 Blue Oak Ct	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+9%)	4mo	$120,000	$82	67
26 Chaparral Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	3mo	$200,000	$130	67
511 Silver Leaf Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$160,000	$111	67
39 La Foret Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$179,000	$124	62
131 Kokanee Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	4mo	$180,000	$156	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-32,116
• Equity at exit: $31,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-24,953
• Equity at exit: $18,503

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $686/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $214,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $102	+0% $42	+5% $-19	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-90	-5% $-24	+0% $42	+5% $107	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $96	base $42	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,500
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $214,000 Active 408 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,000 Active 407 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,000 Active 406 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,000 Active 405 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,000 Active 404 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $214,000 Active 402 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,000 Active 401 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $214,000 Active 399 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,000 Active 398 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $214,000 Active 397 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $214,000 Active 396 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,000 Active 392 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,000 Active 391 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,000 Active 390 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,000 Active 389 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $214,000 Active 388 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $214,000
18. 2026-03-27
    price $219,000
19. 2026-02-10
    price $229,000
20. 2025-05-07
    listed $239,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $686 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,626 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$941/yr (+$78/mo · 137.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$686
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,596
• − Management: −$1,596
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable loss: −$3,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$779
• After-tax cash flow: $1,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Kelly Ridge

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #765
• US rank: #22221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kelly Ridge, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $214,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $219,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-07 Listed $239,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $686 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.