3223 N Lockwood Ridge Rd #133 · Kensington Park, FL 34234

$104,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 602 sqft · SingleFamily · 399 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into comfort and convenience with this charming single-bedroom manufactured home, meticulously designed for contemporary living. Nestled in a vibrant and well-maintained community, this residence offers an inviting blend of style and functionality. Key Features: Spacious Living Area: Enjoy a bright and airy open-plan living space that seamlessly connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Modern Kitchen: The kitchen boasts sleek, energy-efficient appliances, ample cabinetry, and a stylish countertop that enhances both aesthetics and practicality. Cozy Bedroom: The generously sized bedroom provides a serene retreat with plenty of natural light and a well-sized closet for all your storage needs. Elegant Bathroom: The bathroom features contemporary fixtures, a full-size shower or bathtub, and quality finishes that create a spa-like atmosphere. Outdoor Space: A private deck or patio area extends your living space outdoors, ideal for enjoying morning coffee or hosting intimate gatherings. Energy Efficiency: Equipped with modern insulation and energy-efficient systems, this home ensures comfort while helping you save on utilities. Convenient Location: Situated in a desirable community with access to local amenities, this home offers easy living with nearby parks, shops, and dining options. This new manufactured home combines practicality with modern design, making it an ideal choice for those seeking a stylish and lo

Key facts

• Elegant bathroom
• Spacious living area
• Energy efficiency

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• MODERN KITCHEN
• ELEGANT BATHROOM
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in FL, #3,836 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, commute D+, amenities F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 399 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 399 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.94%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $9,612
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $31,103
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34234

• Rents YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,535 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 399 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 398 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 396 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 394 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 393 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,900 Active 391 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 390 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 388 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $104,900 Active 385 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 384 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 383 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 382 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 381 DOM
14. 2025-05-15
    listed $104,900 Active 1492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1492 chars)

    Step into comfort and convenience with this charming single-bedroom manufactured home, meticulously designed for contemporary living. Nestled in a vibrant and well-maintained community, this residence offers an inviting blend of style and functionality. Key Features: Spacious Living Area: Enjoy a bright and airy open-plan living space that seamlessly connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Modern Kitchen: The kitchen boasts sleek, energy-efficient appliances, ample cabinetry, and a stylish countertop that enhances both aesthetics and practicality. Cozy Bedroom: The generously sized bedroom provides a serene retreat with plenty of natural light and a well-sized closet for all your storage needs. Elegant Bathroom: The bathroom features contemporary fixtures, a full-size shower or bathtub, and quality finishes that create a spa-like atmosphere. Outdoor Space: A private deck or patio area extends your living space outdoors, ideal for enjoying morning coffee or hosting intimate gatherings. Energy Efficiency: Equipped with modern insulation and energy-efficient systems, this home ensures comfort while helping you save on utilities. Convenient Location: Situated in a desirable community with access to local amenities, this home offers easy living with nearby parks, shops, and dining options. This new manufactured home combines practicality with modern design, making it an ideal choice for those seeking a stylish and lo

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,474
• − Management: −$1,474
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $4,452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,068
• After-tax cash flow: $4,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen and a small bathroom, and the exterior is well-maintained. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — A cozy outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home technology can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Add a small storage shed — Additional storage can be useful for both resale and rental purposes.
• Both Install a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — A cozy outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home technology can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a small storage shed — Additional storage can be useful for both resale and rental purposes. ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kensington Park

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,986
• Household income: $57,288
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.06%
• Current HPI: 305.6629
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.15%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-15 Listed $104,900 Zillow