427 Baker Dr SW · Varnamtown, NC 28462

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1997 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just in time for Summer Vacation! Great home for use as vacation home or permanent residence. New electric furnace and heat pump. New interior paint. Located on . 34 acre lot in Maple Creek. Just minutes from Holden Beach island. Also conveniently located between Wilmington, NC and Myrtle Beach, SC. This won't last long! Call today!

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 33 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.8% in Varnamtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#521 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, employment B; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, schools F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 506 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $180k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,198 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.15%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,720
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
339 Baker Dr SW	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	893 (+2%)	17mo	$93,000	$104	69
395 Maple Creek Rd SW	0.11mi	2/2.0	924 (+5%)	24mo	$90,000	$97	67
300 Maple Creek Rd SW	0.30mi	2/2.0	784 (-11%)	2mo	$60,000	$77	66
269 Maple Creek Rd SW	0.40mi	2/2.0	840 (-4%)	10mo	$78,500	$93	66
702 Sandy Bluff Dr SW	0.67mi	2/2.0	893 (+2%)	12mo	$100,000	$112	56
733 Sand Hill Dr SW	0.69mi	2/2.0	840 (-4%)	11mo	$110,000	$131	51
218 Maple Creek Rd SW	0.50mi	2/2.0	924 (+5%)	22mo	$110,000	$119	50
729 Sand Hill Dr SW	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+5%)	11mo	$128,000	$139	46
2390 Stone Chimney Rd SW	0.59mi	2/1.0	924 (+5%)	20mo	$110,000	$119	43
181 Maple Creek Rd SW	0.58mi	2/1.0	800 (-9%)	17mo	$99,000	$124	40
643 Oakwood Dr SW	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (+12%)	9mo	$198,000	$200	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-15,475
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,873
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 506
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,602 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $372/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,328

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $179,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $184,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,900 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $184,900 Active
18. 2022-04-08
    soldstatus $80,000
19. 2016-04-08
    soldstatus $54,500 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    Just in time for Summer Vacation! Great home for use as vacation home or permanent residence. New electric furnace and heat pump. New interior paint. Located on . 34 acre lot in Maple Creek. Just minutes from Holden Beach island. Also conveniently located between Wilmington, NC and Myrtle Beach, SC. This won't last long! Call today!

20. 2016-04-08
    soldstatus $54,500

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    Just in time for Summer Vacation! Great home for use as vacation home or permanent residence. New electric furnace and heat pump. New interior paint. Located on . 34 acre lot in Maple Creek. Just minutes from Holden Beach island. Also conveniently located between Wilmington, NC and Myrtle Beach, SC. This won't last long! Call today!

21. 2015-02-18
    listed $54,500 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    Just in time for Summer Vacation! Great home for use as vacation home or permanent residence. New electric furnace and heat pump. New interior paint. Located on . 34 acre lot in Maple Creek. Just minutes from Holden Beach island. Also conveniently located between Wilmington, NC and Myrtle Beach, SC. This won't last long! Call today!

22. 1998-12-01
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $372 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,104/yr (+$92/mo · 297.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$372
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$434
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$104
• After-tax cash flow: $2,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Varnamtown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #19194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 269.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+2541.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $184,900 Hive MLS
• 2022-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records
• 2016-04-08 Sold (MLS) $54,500 Hive MLS
• 2015-02-18 Listed $54,500 Hive MLS
• 1998-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $372 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.