238 Newell Dr · Ferguson, MO 63135

$98,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1941 5,349 sqft lot Est $118k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is an INVESTORS DREAM! Tenant has been in the home since 2017! Just signed a 1-year lease in May 2026. The 3 bedroom and 1 bath home has a brand-new roof (2025), new windows, and a huge basement. This truly is a turnkey opportunity, buy today and start collecting rent tomorrow! NOTE: It is being sold as is.

Key facts

• Huge basement
• Brand-new roof
• 5,349 sq ft lot

Tags

• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• HUGE BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Block construction; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heat; Central air
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating; Basement with block construction

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Berkeley Elementary School (math 4% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,050 of 1,115 statewide, top 94%, 346 students, 99% FRL); Mccluer High (math 0% / reading 17%, grade F, #511 of 521 statewide, top 98%, 1,181 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $98k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,530 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.45%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,422
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8150 Rector Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+2%)	2mo	$50,000	$42	74
8219 Davenport Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (-4%)	1mo	$115,000	$103	71
318 N Dade Ave	0.19mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,073 (-8%)	4mo	$145,000	$135	68
6219 Tyndall Dr	0.54mi	2/1.5	1,128 (-3%)	2mo	$94,900	$84	67
6006 Cascade Dr	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,044 (-10%)	1mo	$75,000	$72	64
8 Drummond Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,131 (-3%)	4mo	$134,900	$119	58
8301 Pepperidge Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (-4%)	1mo	$139,900	$125	55
53 N Dade Ave	0.30mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,036 (-11%)	5mo	$40,000	$39	51
6214 Tyndall Dr	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-13%)	6mo	$40,000	$40	49
211 Frost Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,066 (-8%)	2mo	$84,900	$80	47
233 S Marguerite Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,282 (+10%)	3mo	$144,900	$113	39
6315 Jackson Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	998 (-14%)	5mo	$102,000	$102	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $16,295
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $77,705
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $723/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $778

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
222 Henquin Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,050	$1.29	17d	1	0.06mi
6156 Wulff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	960	$1,425	$1.48	10d	1	0.12mi
6132 Eaton Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,125	$1.42	23d	1	0.21mi
60 Mayme Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,285	$1.34	43d	1	0.26mi
6333 Peurifoy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	23d	1	0.30mi
910 Disco Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,260	$1.36	16d	1	0.31mi
6044 Cascade Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,150	$1.17	7d	1	0.38mi
541 Hentschel Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1305	$1,500	$1.15	4d	1	0.40mi
8306 Whitewater Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,195	$1.51	7d	1	0.46mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	23d	1	0.48mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,300	$1.38	43d	1	0.54mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,400	$1.49	23d	1	0.54mi
324 Emmett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	23d	1	0.57mi
6214 Jefferson Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,195	$1.46	23d	1	0.58mi
6334 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,100	$1.27	4d	1	0.67mi
6336 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$1,175	$1.63	43d	1	0.67mi
6315 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	739	$1,175	$1.59	16d	1	0.68mi
6234 Hancock Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	846	$1,050	$1.24	43d	1	0.78mi
6042 Hancock Ave Berkeley, MO	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,495	$1.44	23d	1	0.81mi
6452 Evergreen Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,500	$1.16	23d	1	0.82mi
6867 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,580	$1.27	43d	1	0.82mi
265 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,350	$1.09	43d	1	0.83mi
334 Mueller Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	713	$825	$1.16	23d	1	0.87mi
8418 Bayberry Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,350	$1.05	21d	1	0.89mi
8439 Alder Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1176	$1,425	$1.21	23d	1	0.90mi
24 Vierling Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$1,290	$1.52	7d	1	0.90mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	43d	1	0.93mi
360 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	43d	1	0.94mi
519 Graf Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	887	$1,297	$1.46	20d	1	0.96mi
8437 January Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,350	$1.05	43d	1	0.96mi
8330 Woodhurst Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,000	$0.89	7d	1	0.99mi
422 Plaza Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	1.00mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	7d	1	1.02mi
153 Bascom Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1076	$1,195	$1.11	19d	1	1.03mi
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	16d	1	1.07mi
171 Elbring Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,395	$1.38	12d	1	1.07mi
450 S Dade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	23d	1	1.08mi
8412 Chalons Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1380	$1,370	$0.99	23d	1	1.08mi
709 Suburban Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$1,400	$1.44	43d	1	1.09mi
46 Bascom Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	932	$1,175	$1.26	43d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 313-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $98,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $109,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $115,000 Active
17. 2010-03-11
    soldstatus $59,900
18. 2009-09-21
    soldstatus $82,500
19. 2005-03-22
    soldstatus
20. 1999-03-15
    soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $723 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$228/yr (+$19/mo · 31.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$723
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $3,384
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$812
• After-tax cash flow: $3,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+188.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2009-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 2005-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $723 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.