8471 Caughlin · Phelan, CA 92371

$270,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1973 2.54 ac lot $225/sqft · 18% below area Est $330k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Recently remodeled 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath manufactured home on permanent foundation situated on over 2.5 usable acres on the desirable south side of Phelan within the sought-after Snowline School District. This well-maintained property offers an inviting interior with drywall finished walls, updated granite countertops, a functional kitchen layout, tub/shower combination, convenient half bath, and indoor laundry area for added comfort and efficiency. The property features a covered carport, storage shed, and a fenced yard area ideal for pets, gardening, or outdoor enjoyment while still providing ample open space for additional possibilities. Affordably priced for first-time buyers, downsizing

Key facts

• 2.54 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property has no common walls (detached); Total of 1 unit on the parcel
• Financial info: Special assessments
• HOA & community: Community features include valley setting, horse trails, and rural location

Exterior

• Utilities: Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Certified 433A foundation; Year built source: seller
• Exterior features: Manufactured house; No pool; View

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Has cooling (see remarks for details)
• Interior features: One-level home; All bedrooms on the main level; Entry at main level; Main level has 1 bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups for gas and electric dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($914/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Phelan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,215 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $270k implies a 286% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,196 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,876
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -18.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $92,673
• Equity at exit: $180,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $266,300
• Equity at exit: $336,639

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92371

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,145/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $153	+0% $76	+5% $0	+10% $-77
Rent	-10% $-94	-5% $-9	+0% $76	+5% $161	+10% $246
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $145	base $76	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $270,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $270,000 948-char remark
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $285,000 Active 948-char remark
16. 2024-01-15
    historical
17. 2023-10-30
    status Active
18. 2023-10-28
    status Pending Sale
19. 2023-10-24
    price $299,000
20. 2023-10-17
    listed $320,000 Active
21. 2023-09-15
    historical
22. 2023-09-07
    price $297,998
23. 2023-08-29
    price $298,000
24. 2023-07-12
    price $300,000
25. 2023-07-12
    price $200,000
26. 2023-03-16
    price $325,000
27. 2023-02-27
    listed $300,000 Active
28. 2022-11-02
    historical
29. 2022-08-31
    status Active
30. 2022-08-31
    price $300,000
31. 2022-08-10
    status Pending Sale
32. 2022-07-26
    price $290,000
33. 2022-06-15
    listed $320,000 Active
34. 2022-02-05
    historical
35. 2020-11-17
    soldstatus $70,000
36. 2020-11-09
    soldstatus $70,000
37. 2020-10-20
    listed $89,900
38. 2020-10-03
    listed $89,900
39. 1995-05-19
    soldstatus $33,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,145 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$907/yr (+$76/mo · 79.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,145
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$3,782
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$908
• After-tax cash flow: $1,822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowline Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #9157
• State rank: #722 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Phelan

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1215
• US rank: #26148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phelan, CA
• City population: 21,678
• Population (ZIP): 21,678

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 45% Two or more races 22% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.62%
• Current HPI: 425.631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+706.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $270,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $285,000 CRMLS
• 2024-01-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-10-30 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-10-28 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-10-24 Price Changed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-17 Listed $320,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-09-07 Price Changed $297,998 CRMLS
• 2023-08-29 Price Changed $298,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-12 Price Changed $300,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-12 Price Changed $200,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-16 Price Changed $325,000 CRMLS
• 2023-02-27 Listed $300,000 CRMLS
• 2022-11-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-31 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-08-31 Price Changed $300,000 CRMLS
• 2022-08-10 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-07-26 Price Changed $290,000 CRMLS
• 2022-06-15 Listed $320,000 CRMLS
• 2022-02-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-11-17 Sold (MLS) $70,000 CRMLS
• 2020-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-20 Listed $89,900 CRMLS
• 2020-10-03 Listed $89,900 CRMLS
• 1995-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,145 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.