22 Woodland Hills Dr · Southgate, KY 41071

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 946 sqft · Condo · 13 Days on market

Built 1987 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

pc0792 This third Floor Condo with vaulted ceiling, woodburning fireplace. Move in condition.

Key facts

• New carpet
• Gym area
• Wood facing patio

Tags

• NEW CARPET
• WOOD FACING PATIO
• IN BUILDING STORAGE UNIT
• COMMUNITY POOLS
• GYM AREA
• BASKETBALL COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $130k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-375/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Southgate — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in KY, #513 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Campbell County (suburban): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #15 of 165 in KY (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 247 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (77 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $130k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-20,481
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,507
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41071

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$260
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,466

Max offer price $125,480

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $14	+0% $-31	+5% $-76	+10% $-121
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-88	+0% $-31	+5% $25	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $2	base $-31	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Woodland Hills Dr #11 Southgate, KY	2.0	2.0	950	$1,445	$1.52	8d	1	0.02mi
120 Vista Point Dr Wilder, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	854	$1,184	$1.39	3d	2	0.33mi
400 Lakeview Dr #5 Wilder, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	3d	1	0.35mi
1700 Aspen Pines Dr Wilder, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1420	$1,895	$1.33	2d	14	0.47mi
926 Ravine Cir Southgate, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,371	$1.44	2d	6	0.72mi
3949 Vision CIR Southgate, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$2,515	$2.22	2d	10	1.09mi
512 Wallace Ave Unit 512/16 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	550	$939	$1.71	8d	1	1.18mi
512 Wallace Ave Unit 512/09 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	550	$899	$1.63	8d	1	1.18mi
512 Wallace Ave Unit 512/18 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	900	$1,299	$1.44	8d	1	1.18mi
512 Wallace Ave Unit 512/08 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	550	$899	$1.63	18d	1	1.18mi
2335 Alexandria Pike Southgate, KY	2.0	1.0	557	$1,140	$2.04	2d	17	1.29mi
1914 Eastern Ave Apt 1 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	24d	1	1.32mi
1914 Eastern Ave Apt 3 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	15d	1	1.32mi
1321 Alexandria Pike Fort Thomas, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$950	$1.52	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 675-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $130,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − HOA: −$3,120
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$576
• After-tax cash flow: $202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This condo requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding, roof, and landscaping. Immediate updates are needed to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — No visible damage, but photos don't show
• Major landscaping — Overgrown bushes, unkempt appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and paint exterior — Improves curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value
• Both repair and paint interior — Improves interior condition and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible damage, but photos don't show	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown bushes, unkempt appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and paint exterior — Improves curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both repair and paint interior — Improves interior condition and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County
• NCES district ID: 2100900
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $62,891
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3864
• State rank: #15 of 165 in KY

Livability — Southgate

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southgate, KY
• County: Campbell County · 84,793 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 19,680
• Household income: $59,976
• Rent vs Own: 47.3% rent · 52.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1136.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,668 people
• By 2030: 96,886 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 97,734 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 96,413 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 90,211 · -5.7%
• By 2100: 79,434 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.2% · R 58.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.2pp toward D · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -193.38%
• Current HPI: 244.9069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.64%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+75.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com
• 2005-04-29 Sold (MLS) $73,500 NKMLS
• 2005-01-14 Listed $73,900 NKMLS