13596 State Highway 87 · Kirbyville, TX 75959

$75,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 265 Days on market

Built 1940 1.56 ac lot $39/sqft · 14% below area Est $88k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor’s Dream! This property offers incredible potential but will require a full renovation. Home needs significant repairs, making it the perfect opportunity for those looking to restore or rebuild. Please use extreme caution when entering the home. What truly sets this property apart is the gorgeous piece of land it sits on—spacious, open, and full of possibilities. Whether you’re an investor searching for your next project or someone with a vision to create a dream home, this property is a must-see opportunity.

Key facts

• Spacious open
• Full renovation
• 1.56 acre lot

Tags

• FULL RENOVATION
• GORGEOUS PIECE OF LAND
• SPACIOUS OPEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $508 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,133 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newton El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 380 students, 82% FRL); Newton Middle (math 30% / reading 33%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 333 students, 79% FRL); Newton H S (math 8% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,190 of 1,632 statewide, top 74%, 255 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.02%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,511
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -14.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $44,447
• Equity at exit: $36,937

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $109,354
• Equity at exit: $59,561

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75959

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,649/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $711

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $529	+0% $508	+5% $487	+10% $465
Rent	-10% $401	-5% $454	+0% $508	+5% $561	+10% $615
Rate	-1.0pp $546	-0.5pp $527	base $508	+0.5pp $488	+1.0pp $469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-09-04
   listed $75,000 Active 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Investor’s Dream! This property offers incredible potential but will require a full renovation. Home needs significant repairs, making it the perfect opportunity for those looking to restore or rebuild. Please use extreme caution when entering the home. What truly sets this property apart is the gorgeous piece of land it sits on—spacious, open, and full of possibilities. Whether you’re an investor searching for your next project or someone with a vision to create a dream home, this property is a must-see opportunity.

2. 2002-04-16
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,649
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,243
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,258
• After-tax cash flow: $4,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 24.26/100
• National rank: #7719
• State rank: #661 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kirbyville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1133
• US rank: #20020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 842

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Current HPI: 91.8797
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-04 Listed $75,000 BBOR
• 2002-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,649 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.