10 Sleepy Bear Loop · Cloudcroft, NM 88317

$249,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 974 sqft · Townhouse public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2000 871 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the Townhome you have been looking for! Southwestern style and all one level with vaulted ceilings, wood beam accents, wooden windows, and tile flooring in the main living area. This property sits adjacent to the Cloudcroft Lodge Golf Course and offers expansive views of the fairways amongst the towering pines. For entertaining, there is an enclosed and private courtyard ideal for grilling, chilling, or sipping your morning coffee. The home stays warm and cozy with radiant heat flooring and a gas log fireplace. All furnishings to convey with an acceptable offer. The home conforms to ADA standards with level access from the paved driveway to the single level home with appropriate fixtures in the shower/tub. A very low maintenance Townhome and Yard which enables one to turn the key and start enjoying everything Cloudcroft has to offer. Please see the VIRTUAL TOUR. Schedule you showing today!

Key facts

• Expansive views
• Tile flooring
• Wooden windows

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• WOOD BEAM ACCENTS
• WOODEN WINDOWS
• TILE FLOORING
• EXPANSIVE VIEWS
• PRIVATE COURTYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($501/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#107 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Cloudcroft Municipal Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #12 of 95 in NM (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,555 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-37,810
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-29,985
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88317

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $839/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,873

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $112	+0% $42	+5% $-29	+10% $-99
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-34	+0% $42	+5% $118	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $105	base $42	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-04-09
    listed $249,000 Active 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    This is the Townhome you have been looking for! Southwestern style and all one level with vaulted ceilings, wood beam accents, wooden windows, and tile flooring in the main living area. This property sits adjacent to the Cloudcroft Lodge Golf Course and offers expansive views of the fairways amongst the towering pines. For entertaining, there is an enclosed and private courtyard ideal for grilling, chilling, or sipping your morning coffee. The home stays warm and cozy with radiant heat flooring and a gas log fireplace. All furnishings to convey with an acceptable offer. The home conforms to ADA standards with level access from the paved driveway to the single level home with appropriate fixtures in the shower/tub. A very low maintenance Townhome and Yard which enables one to turn the key and start enjoying everything Cloudcroft has to offer. Please see the VIRTUAL TOUR. Schedule you showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $839 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,992 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,153/yr (+$96/mo · 137.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥79°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$839
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$3,866
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$928
• After-tax cash flow: $1,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cloudcroft Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500540
• Math proficiency: 28% —
• Reading proficiency: 48% —
• Median HH income: $45,499
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #9996
• State rank: #12 of 95 in NM

Livability — Cloudcroft

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #18938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cloudcroft, NM
• Population (ZIP): 2,633

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 21% Iranian 18% Scottish 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.09%
• Current HPI: 209.5308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $249,000 OCAOR

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $839 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.