8633 Knoxville Dr Unit C-31 · Lubbock, TX 79423

$151,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,519 sqft · Condo · 16 Days on market

Built 1979 Fair condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning 2-story townhome offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and style. With 2 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 2-car rear entry garage, this residence is designed to meet all your needs. The living area, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests around a warm fireplace. The modern kitchen boasts sleek countertops, ample cabinet space, and contemporary appliances, making meal preparation a breeze. Upstairs, are two generously sized bedrooms, each with its own private bath. Outside, you'll love the convenience of the 2-car rear entry garage, providing secure parking and additional storage space, and private outdoor living. Located in Southwest Lubbock, this townhome offers easy access to shopping, dining, entertainment, and parks. Plus, with a price tag under $200,000, it's an incredible opportunity to own a piece of luxury without breaking the bank. This townhouse IS NOT in an HOA.

Key facts

• 2 story townhome
• No hoa
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• 2 STORY TOWNHOME
• WARM INVITING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR LIVING AREA
• 2 CAR REAR ENTRY GARAGE
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway; Garage with garage door opener
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors; Firewall(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Townhouse (attached); 2 stories; Updated/remodeled; 2+ common walls
• Construction: Stucco construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built/finished as a townhouse
• Exterior features: Balcony; Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Range hood; Eat-in layout; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Smart thermostat
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Natural woodwork; Open floorplan; Pantry; Smart thermostat; Wood-burning fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer/Dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $152k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($149/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Honey El (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 420 students, 48% FRL); Evans Middle (math 34% / reading 43%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 799 students, 58% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 673 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,863 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.23%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-25,001
• Equity at exit: $22,649

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-25,499
• Equity at exit: $13,134

Cash invested: $42,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 673
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,429 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$190 /mo · $2,278/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,413

Max offer price $151,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $65	+0% $12	+5% $-40	+10% $-93
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-44	+0% $12	+5% $69	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $51	base $12	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,975
• Closing costs: $4,557
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8601 Memphis Dr Unit A 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1069	$1,150	$1.08	45d	1	0.09mi
8604 Jordan Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1855	$1,900	$1.02	45d	1	0.23mi
3417 83rd Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$1,650	$1.00	23d	1	0.35mi
9001 Indiana Ave Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$699	$0.64	45d	1	0.48mi
9715 Joliet Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1589	$1,400	$0.88	45d	1	0.65mi
3311 79th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1391	$1,249	$0.90	45d	1	0.73mi
9818 Jordan Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,500	$1.00	45d	1	0.77mi
8310 Raleigh Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,300	$0.92	15d	1	0.79mi
8216 Elkridge Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,550	$1.10	23d	1	0.92mi
8219 Elkridge Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,475	$1.05	45d	1	0.95mi
3307 74th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	2024	$1,540	$0.76	45d	1	0.98mi
7201 Memphis Ave Unit b Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1627	$1,250	$0.77	45d	1	1.02mi
3107 75th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,250	$0.89	23d	1	1.08mi
4522 79th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1933	$1,800	$0.93	23d	1	1.12mi
3101 99th St Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$1,350	$0.80	45d	1	1.16mi
4416 105th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1873	$2,200	$1.17	15d	1	1.21mi
4424 105th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1452	$1,575	$1.08	15d	1	1.24mi
10509 Quinton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1840	$1,750	$0.95	23d	1	1.27mi
4419 106th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1960	$1,725	$0.88	45d	1	1.30mi
2612 81st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,100	$0.96	45d	1	1.31mi
7616 Utica Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1913	$2,100	$1.10	45d	1	1.32mi
6911 Gary Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,125	$0.97	45d	1	1.32mi
6711 Hartford Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1165	$975	$0.84	45d	1	1.37mi
4804 76th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,350	$1.01	45d	1	1.39mi
3203 109th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	45d	1	1.44mi
2415 93rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,650	$0.98	23d	1	1.46mi
3203 110th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1191	$1,350	$1.13	23d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $151,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $151,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $151,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $151,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $151,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $151,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $151,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $151,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $151,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $151,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 687-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $151,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,509
• − Property taxes: −$2,278
• − Insurance: −$1,557
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
• − Management: −$1,371
• − Depreciation: −$4,419
• Taxable loss: −$2,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$567
• After-tax cash flow: $716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-story townhome requires moderate repairs and maintenance, particularly to the exterior siding and walls. With updates, it has the potential to significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Signs of wear and tear
• Minor interior walls — Some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both repair exterior siding — Improves structural integrity and appearance
• Both update flooring — Freshens up the living space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Signs of wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair exterior siding — Improves structural integrity and appearance ↑
• Both update flooring — Freshens up the living space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $151,900 LARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2024-03-22 Pending — LARMLS
• 2024-02-26 Price Changed $156,500 LARMLS
• 2024-01-04 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2024-01-01 Pending — LARMLS
• 2023-12-28 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2023-12-27 Pending — LARMLS
• 2023-12-15 Listed $158,000 LARMLS