100 Eagle Valley Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$264,100

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,689 sqft · SingleFamily · 192 Days on market

Built 2025 8,363 sqft lot $156/sqft · 14% below area Est $308k · 14% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Available Now! The Hewitt is an open one-story plan with the kitchen overlooking the dining and great room. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and wood flooring.

Key facts

• 8,363 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $198,751 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,834
• List price: $264,100
• Delta: -14.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
325 Sullivan Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,682 (-0%)	3mo	$279,190	$166	93
329 Sullivan Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-7%)	0mo	$259,990	$165	86
320 Gettysburg Loop	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+1%)	8mo	$269,900	$159	80
404 Sullivan Way	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (+5%)	2mo	$298,748	$168	75
209 Antietam Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-14%)	1mo	$265,000	$183	64
310 Mcclendon Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-12%)	1mo	$265,000	$179	62
100 Stubblefield Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,559 (-8%)	8mo	$239,000	$153	59
324 Mcclendon Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-13%)	4mo	$199,000	$136	56
212 Valley Run Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-14%)	3mo	$270,000	$187	54
118 Anderson Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (-8%)	6mo	$339,000	$218	45
205 Tillage Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,589 (-6%)	9mo	$289,890	$182	43
137 Appleberry Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-11%)	6mo	$270,000	$180	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $125,657
• Equity at exit: $237,922

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $385,157
• Equity at exit: $513,088

Cash invested: $73,948 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,988 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,385
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,962/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,355

Max offer price $222,136

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-107	-5% $-199	+0% $-290	+5% $-381	+10% $-473
Rent	-10% $-447	-5% $-369	+0% $-290	+5% $-211	+10% $-133
Rate	-1.0pp $-157	-0.5pp $-223	base $-290	+0.5pp $-358	+1.0pp $-428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,025
• Closing costs: $7,923
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	0.17mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	19d	1	0.54mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	0d	6	0.63mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	0.63mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	0.76mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	6d	1	0.84mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	0.87mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,765	$1.14	0d	1	0.87mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	17d	1	0.91mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	0d	1	0.93mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	6d	1	0.95mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	0d	1	0.97mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	4d	1	1.01mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	0d	1	1.01mi
212 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,895	$1.13	0d	1	1.06mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	0d	1	1.07mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	3d	1	1.09mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	19d	1	1.16mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	26d	1	1.16mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	1.16mi
813 Central Ave Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,300	$1.14	6d	1	1.19mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	6d	1	1.21mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	26d	1	1.21mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	26d	1	1.24mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	45d	1	1.24mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	1.30mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	26d	1	1.39mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	13d	1	1.39mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	1.40mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	21d	1	1.45mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	5d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $264,100 Pending 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $264,100 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $264,100 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $264,100 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $264,100 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $264,100 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-05-16
   price $279,100 210-char remark

   Show marketing remark (210 chars)

   Available Now! The Hewitt is an open one-story plan with the kitchen overlooking the dining and great room. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and wood flooring.

8. 2026-05-15
   price $264,100 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION BY CENTEX HOMES! Available January 2026! The Hewitt’s open plan offers luxury and space, with a kitchen overlooking the great room and dining area, and an Owner's Suite with a large walk-in closet. Lowest Tax Rate in Elgin Tx!

9. 2026-04-18
   price $279,103 210-char remark

   Show marketing remark (210 chars)

   Available Now! The Hewitt is an open one-story plan with the kitchen overlooking the dining and great room. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and wood flooring.

10. 2026-04-17
    price $279,100 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION BY CENTEX HOMES! Available January 2026! The Hewitt’s open plan offers luxury and space, with a kitchen overlooking the great room and dining area, and an Owner's Suite with a large walk-in closet. Lowest Tax Rate in Elgin Tx!

11. 2026-04-14
    status Active 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Available Now! The Hewitt is an open one-story plan with the kitchen overlooking the dining and great room. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and wood flooring.

12. 2026-04-13
    status Active 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION BY CENTEX HOMES! Available January 2026! The Hewitt’s open plan offers luxury and space, with a kitchen overlooking the great room and dining area, and an Owner's Suite with a large walk-in closet. Lowest Tax Rate in Elgin Tx!

13. 2026-04-01
    status Pending 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION BY CENTEX HOMES! Available January 2026! The Hewitt’s open plan offers luxury and space, with a kitchen overlooking the great room and dining area, and an Owner's Suite with a large walk-in closet. Lowest Tax Rate in Elgin Tx!

14. 2026-03-31
    historical 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Available Now! The Hewitt is an open one-story plan with the kitchen overlooking the dining and great room. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and wood flooring.

15. 2026-03-22
    status Active 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Available Now! The Hewitt is an open one-story plan with the kitchen overlooking the dining and great room. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and wood flooring.

16. 2026-03-22
    price $289,103 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Available Now! The Hewitt is an open one-story plan with the kitchen overlooking the dining and great room. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and wood flooring.

17. 2026-03-19
    status Active 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION BY CENTEX HOMES! Available January 2026! The Hewitt’s open plan offers luxury and space, with a kitchen overlooking the great room and dining area, and an Owner's Suite with a large walk-in closet. Lowest Tax Rate in Elgin Tx!

18. 2026-03-19
    price $289,103 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION BY CENTEX HOMES! Available January 2026! The Hewitt’s open plan offers luxury and space, with a kitchen overlooking the great room and dining area, and an Owner's Suite with a large walk-in closet. Lowest Tax Rate in Elgin Tx!

19. 2026-03-06
    status Pending 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION BY CENTEX HOMES! Available January 2026! The Hewitt’s open plan offers luxury and space, with a kitchen overlooking the great room and dining area, and an Owner's Suite with a large walk-in closet. Lowest Tax Rate in Elgin Tx!

20. 2026-02-22
    historical 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Available Now! The Hewitt is an open one-story plan with the kitchen overlooking the dining and great room. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and wood flooring.

21. 2026-02-21
    price $302,943 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Available Now! The Hewitt is an open one-story plan with the kitchen overlooking the dining and great room. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and wood flooring.

22. 2026-02-19
    price $299,103 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Available Now! The Hewitt is an open one-story plan with the kitchen overlooking the dining and great room. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and wood flooring.

23. 2026-02-16
    price $299,103 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION BY CENTEX HOMES! Available January 2026! The Hewitt’s open plan offers luxury and space, with a kitchen overlooking the great room and dining area, and an Owner's Suite with a large walk-in closet. Lowest Tax Rate in Elgin Tx!

24. 2026-01-05
    price $306,103 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION BY CENTEX HOMES! Available January 2026! The Hewitt’s open plan offers luxury and space, with a kitchen overlooking the great room and dining area, and an Owner's Suite with a large walk-in closet. Lowest Tax Rate in Elgin Tx!

25. 2026-01-05
    price $306,103 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION BY CENTEX HOMES! Available January 2026! The Hewitt’s open plan offers luxury and space, with a kitchen overlooking the great room and dining area, and an Owner's Suite with a large walk-in closet. Lowest Tax Rate in Elgin Tx!

26. 2025-10-31
    listed $315,572 Active 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION BY CENTEX HOMES! Available January 2026! The Hewitt’s open plan offers luxury and space, with a kitchen overlooking the great room and dining area, and an Owner's Suite with a large walk-in closet. Lowest Tax Rate in Elgin Tx!

27. 2025-10-30
    listed $315,572 Active 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Available Now! The Hewitt is an open one-story plan with the kitchen overlooking the dining and great room. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and wood flooring.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,794
• − Property taxes: −$3,962
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$7,683
• Taxable loss: −$8,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,955
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $279,100 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $264,100 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $279,103 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $279,100 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-01 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $289,103 Zillow
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $289,103 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-06 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-22 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $302,943 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $299,103 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $299,103 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $306,103 Zillow
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $306,103 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $315,572 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $315,572 Zillow