249 Stone Valley Ln · Wilson's Mills, NC 27520

$259,490

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,420 sqft · Townhouse · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $183/sqft · at area comps Est $260k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Crescent Mills Homesite #76The Camellia townhome offers 1,420 square feet of thoughtfully designed living with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. Enjoy storage spaces on both levels and an open-concept layout where the kitchen, living room, and breakfast area flow seamlessly together, all enhanced by our included design package for a stylish, move-in ready feel. Crescent Mills offers an expansive array of amenities for homeowners to enjoy, including three pickleball courts, a swimming pool, two clubhouses, and a dedicated dog park.

Key facts

• Two clubhouses
• Storage spaces
• Swimming pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STORAGE SPACES
• THREE PICKLEBALL COURTS
• SWIMMING POOL
• TWO CLUBHOUSES
• DEDICATED DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $259k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.0% in Wilson's Mills — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilson'S Mills Elementary (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,175 of 1,410 statewide, top 84%, 503 students, 82% FRL); Smithfield Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #385 of 475 statewide, top 81%, 501 students, 99% FRL); Smithfield-Selma High (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #454 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,503 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 41% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Johnston County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1118 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 58d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $198,023 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,990
• List price: $259,490
• Delta: -0.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 N Stonemill Trl	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,420 (0%)	1mo	$269,990	$190	98
201 N Stonemill Trl	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,420 (0%)	1mo	$263,840	$186	98
213 N Stonemill Trl	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,420 (0%)	1mo	$259,990	$183	97
237 Stone Valley Ln Unit 73	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,420 (0%)	2mo	$257,990	$182	97
200 Flagstone Way Unit 67	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,420 (0%)	2mo	$228,000	$161	96
241 Stone Valley Ln	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,447 (+2%)	1mo	$225,000	$155	95
219 N Stonemill Trl	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,447 (+2%)	1mo	$250,000	$173	95
207 N Stonemill Trl	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,447 (+2%)	1mo	$239,990	$166	94
245 Stone Valley Ln Unit 75	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,447 (+2%)	3mo	$259,990	$180	94
196 Flagstone Way Unit 68	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,447 (+2%)	2mo	$249,990	$173	93
253 Stone Valley Ln Unit 77	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,463 (+3%)	3mo	$259,990	$178	92
112 Barley Field Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,458 (+3%)	0mo	$274,990	$189	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-60,906
• Equity at exit: $38,691

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-88,599
• Equity at exit: $22,436

Cash invested: $72,657 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.5 mo (40%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $259,990 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +-0.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 27520

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1118
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,361
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,892/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,270

Max offer price $226,368

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-50	-5% $-139	+0% $-229	+5% $-319	+10% $-408
Rent	-10% $-385	-5% $-307	+0% $-229	+5% $-151	+10% $-72
Rate	-1.0pp $-98	-0.5pp $-163	base $-229	+0.5pp $-296	+1.0pp $-365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,872
• Closing costs: $7,785
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Flagstone WAY Unit 67 Wilsons Mills, NC	3.0	2.5	1511	$1,900	$1.26	10d	1	0.05mi
385 Dasu Dr Unit 1 Clayton, NC	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,995	$1.44	119d	1	0.62mi
385 Dasu Dr Clayton, NC	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,725	$1.23	10d	1	0.62mi
385 Dasu Dr Clayton, NC	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,849	$1.30	3d	1	0.62mi
131 S Meyers CT Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1368	$1,725	$1.26	71d	1	1.49mi
131 S Meyers CT Clayton, NC	3.0	3.0	1368	$1,725	$1.26	58d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-30
   days on market $259,490 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-29
   days on market $259,490 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-28
   days on market $259,490 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-27
   days on market $259,490 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-27
   days on market $259,490 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-25
   pricedays on market $259,490 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-22
   days on market $259,990 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,990 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,990 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-17
    days on market $259,990 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-16
    days on market $259,990 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-15
    days on market $259,990 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-13
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-13
    listed $259,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,535
• − Property taxes: −$3,892
• − Insurance: −$1,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$7,549
• Taxable loss: −$7,313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,755
• After-tax cash flow: $-992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great value with potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and modernize the interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wilson's Mills Elementary F NC #1,175/1,410 Nat'l #31,832/41,679 Middle Smithfield Middle F NC #385/475 Nat'l #10,089/14,009 High Smithfield-Selma High F NC #454/535 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wilson's Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilson's Mills, NC
• County: Johnston County · 222,440 people
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 48,014
• Household income: $86,322
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.88%
• Current HPI: 238.2079
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B