206 E 2nd St · Hardinsburg, KY 40143

$29,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1950 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Send An offer! This 1,328 sq ft home offers 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths and has been cleaned and prepared for renovation. Featuring a single-car garage and access to county water and sewer, the property provides a solid starting point for updates or customization. Conveniently located within walking distance to downtown Hardinsburg, it presents an opportunity to restore and personalize an older home to suit your needs.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available; One cooling unit
• Home design: Single-family traditional-style home; 2 stories; Built in 1950
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Dining room on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Three closets; No basement; First-floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $686 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.8% vs local median 2.4% in Hardinsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#250 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Breckinridge County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #51 of 165 in KY (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Breckinridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $887 of equity ($207 loan paydown + $680 appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Breckinridge County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $30k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.33%
• DSCR: 5.38
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,720
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 S Tower St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,460 (+10%)	4mo	$74,500	$51	68
111 Short St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-2%)	14mo	$220,000	$170	67
314 E 4th St	0.25mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,469 (+11%)	1mo	$169,000	$115	65
201 Leitchfield Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,138 (-14%)	12mo	$129,900	$114	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $46,165
• Equity at exit: $12,238

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.49×
• Total profit: $104,566
• Equity at exit: $17,972

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40143

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $164/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $232

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $29,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $29,900
17. 2026-05-08
    price $34,900
18. 2026-04-21
    price $39,900
19. 2026-04-11
    price $44,899
20. 2026-03-23
    listed $44,999 Active
21. 2019-06-29
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $164 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $257 · $21/mo
• Expected delta: +$93/yr (+$8/mo · 56.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$164
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,056
• − Management: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $8,229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,975
• After-tax cash flow: $6,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckinridge County
• NCES district ID: 2100720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $42,042
• Composite: 31.2/100
• National rank: #6041
• State rank: #51 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hardinsburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #12568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hardinsburg, KY
• Population (ZIP): 6,078

Population outlook (Breckinridge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,487 people
• By 2030: 18,994 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 17,825 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 16,640 · -14.6%
• By 2075: 14,155 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 11,696 · -40.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Breckinridge

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.3% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+51.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.27%
• Current HPI: 280.2038
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+66.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $29,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $34,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $39,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $44,899 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $44,999 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $164 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.